WNBA Finals Odds & Betting Preview: Mystics 7-Point Favorites in Decisive Game 5 vs Sun

Jasmine Thomas dribbling basketball
Can Jasmine Thomas and the Connecticut Sun find a way to win on the road against the Washington Mystics in Game 5 of the WNBA Finals? Photo by Lorie Shaull [Licensed by CC BY-SA 4.0]
  • The Mystics are seven-point favorites over the visiting Sun in the decisive fifth game of the WNBA Finals
  • Home teams are 9-2 straight up when the WNBA Finals go the distance
  • The Mystics are 17-4 at home this season

For the fourth time in five seasons, the WNBA Finals will go to Game 5. Facing elimination, the Connecticut Sun gutted out a 90-86 win over the Washington Mystics in Game 4 of the series.

The deciding fifth game will be played Thursday in Washington, where the Mystics are a solid 17-4 this season. Connecticut is a middling 10-10 on the road. But the Sun did win Game 2 in Washington, 99-87.

The sportsbooks are leaning toward the Mystics in this one. Oddsmakers have established Washington as seven-point favorites to win Game 5 in the WNBA Finals odds.

Sun vs Mystics WNBA Finals Game 5 Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Over/Under
Connecticut Sun +265 +7 (-110) Over 175.0 (-110)
Washington Mystics -345 -7 (-115) Under 175.0 (-110)

Odds taken 10/09/19.

Home teams are 9-2 straight up when the WNBA Finals go the distance.

A First Time For Everything

No matter which team wins Game 5, WNBA history will be made.

The Mystics have never won the league championship. They were swept in last year’s WNBA Finals by the Seattle Storm.

The Sun have never won the league championship. They lost in 2004 to the Storm and in 2005 to the Sacramento Monarchs.

In the decisive game of the best-of-three 2004 final, Connecticut lost 74-60 at Seattle.

The Sun Also Rises

If it’s true that defense wins championships, then the Sun may have experienced a defining moment in the waning moments of Game 4.

Connecticut held Washington, the league’s #1 offense, without a point over the final 2:10 of the game.

It was all part of a team effort that ensured the Sun would rise to play another game. Five Connecticut players hit for double digits in Game 4.

Jonquel Jones rebounded from a poor Game 3 performance to lead the way, netting 18 points and pulling down 13 rebounds. Alyssa Thomas contributed 17 points, 11 assists and eight rebounds.

Mystics On The Rebound

It was all Connecticut early in Game 4. The Sun opened a 32-17 first-quarter lead. It marked the fourth straight game of the WNBA Finals that the eventual game winner fashioned a double-digit first-quarter advantage.

The Mystics won the first quarter of Game 1 by 13 points. Connecticut took a 12-point lead in the first quarter of Game 2. Washington was up by 15 points at the end of the opening period in Game 3. Oddly, in each game, the trailing team recorded exactly 17 first-quarter points.

Connecticut led by 16 at halftime, but the Mystics didn’t roll over and die. Washington stepped on the gas in the third quarter. The Mystics tied the score at 68-68.

Washington opened a five-point advantage early in the fourth quarter before the Sun rallied to close the deal.

WNBA Finals Game 5 Pick

This is the 12th time that the WNBA Finals has gone to a deciding game. Nine of the previous 11 series saw the team with home-court advantage emerge victorious.

Only the 2016 Los Angeles Sparks and and 2009 Phoenix Mercury were able to win Game 5 of the WNBA Finals on the road. But both the Sparks (14-7) and the Mercury (15-7) were strong road teams during their championship seasons.

The Sun are a .500 road club. Connecticut is 4-10 straight up in its last 14 games at Washington, including a 1-2 slate this season. The Sun are 5-11 against the spread in their last 16 games at Washington.

The Mystics have lost back-to-back home games once all season. They’ve proven to be the WNBA’s best team all season long. With the season on the line they will be the best team in Game 5 of the WNBA Finals.

Pick: Washington Mystics (-7, -115).

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