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WNBA Semifinals Game 2 Odds & Betting Preview: Mystics 9.5 Point Home Favorites; Sparks Even on Moneyline

Las Vegas Aces players boxing out.
The Las Vegas Aces will look to bounce back from a close Game 1 loss to the Washington Mystics in the WNBA semi-finals. Photo by Lorie Shaull (Wikimedia Commons) [CC License].
  • The Washington Mystics are 9.5-point favorites to win Game 2 of their WNBA semi-final series with the Las Vegas Aces
  • The Mystics have won seven games in a row
  • The Connecticut Sun are 1.5-point favorites in Game 2 of their semi-final with the Los Angeles Sparks

The home favorites held forth as the semi-final round of the WNBA playoffs got underway on Tuesday.

The Washington Mystics, favorites in the WNBA Championship odds, staved off the pesky, determined Las Vegas Aces for a 97-95 victory. Meanwhile, the Connecticut Sun had their way with the Los Angeles Sparks, rolling to an 84-75 triumph.

The home teams are again the chalk as each semi-final resumes on Thursday. Home teams are 6-0 straight up and 5-1 against the spread during this season’s WNBA postseason.

Aces vs Mystics WNBA Semi-Final Game 2 Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Over/Under at Bovada*
Las Vegas Aces +425 +9.5 (-105) Over 176.5 (-110)
Washington Mystics -700 -9.5 (-115) Under 176.5 (-110)

*Odds taken 09/19/19.

There’s no moral victories for teams in the playoffs, but there was a rare victory for the underdog ATS in Game 1 of this season. And it arrived via an unlikely source. Las Vegas became the first visiting team to cover in the postseason. Washington was a nine-point favorite.

The Aces are 14-22 ATS this season. That’s the second-worst ATS record in the league, behind only the  New York Liberty (11-21-2).

Evidently, the oddsmakers weren’t impressed. Washington’s advantage in the odds has increased in both the moneyline (-450 to -700) and in the point spread (9-9.5) for Game 2. Las Vegas was a +325 underdog in Game 1. That’s jumped to +425.

Shaking The Rust

Game 1 ended with Kelsey Plum of the Aces missing a game-tying shot at the buzzer. Game 2 shouldn’t be nearly as close.

Washington was playing for the first time in nine days. There was rust to be removed from the game of the Mystics. But they still did enough to win.

Emma Meesseman led the way with 27 points and 10 rebounds. In the third quarter, she netted half of Washington’s 26 point and WNBA MVP Elena Delle Donne came through with 24 points.

The Mystics dominated the Aces from 3-point range (11-4) and were much better when it came to ball security (four turnovers compared to 13 by Las Vegas).

Washington’s quickness also presented problems on defense for the Aces. Mystics all-star guard Kristi Toliver, who’d missed the last 11 games of the season with a right knee injury, played for the first time since August 8th.

She scored just eight points in 23 minutes but hit a step-back 3-pointer in the waning seconds of the third quarter when the scored was tied 73-73.

Take The Points

On the surface, it seems likely to expect that in Game 2, the Mystics will flex and the Aces will fall. The numbers certainly point in that direction.

Las Vegas is 1-4 ATS in it last five games playing on one day’s rest. The Aces also 1-4 ATS in their last five against Eastern teams and 0-4 ATS in their last four Thursday contests.

Flip the switch and the odds flow into the Mystics. Washington is 3-0-1 ATS over the past four games played on Thursday, 5-0 ATS on one day’s rest and 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine home games.

Washington is 11-0 SU in its last 11 homes games and 7-4 ATS. But Las Vegas is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games at Washington.

Take the Mystics on the moneyline but go with the Aces to beat the spread again.

Picks: Washington Mystics (-700); Las Vegas Aces +9.5 (-105).

Sparks vs Sun WNBA Semi-Final Game 2 Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Over/Under at Bovada
Los Angeles Sparks EVEN +1.5 (-110) Over 162.0 (-115)
Connecticut Sun -125 -1.5 (-110) Under 162.0 (-110)

The series that was expected to be close wasn’t close at all in Game 1. Favored by 2.5 points, the Sun rolled to an 84-75 victory over the Sparks. Connecticut, 16-2 at home this season, pulled away in the fourth quarter, outscoring Los Angeles 25-17.

Playing on the road has proven to be an issue for the Sparks all season long. Los Angeles is 7-11 SU and 5-12-1 ATS away from home this season. Five of LA’s seven road wins came at the expense of non-playoff teams.

With Tuesday’s loss, the Sparks are now 2-5 ATS as a road underdog.

Shouldering The Load

Connecticut point guard Alyssa Taylor, playing with torn labrums in both shoulders, scored the the Sun’s first 11 points. She stayed on the court for the entire 40 minutes, finishing with 22 points, 10 rebounds, five assists and four blocks.

A balanced attack was the key for Connecticut, which won a playoff game for the first time since 2012. Jasmine Thomas scored 19 points, Jonquel Jones had 16 and Courtney Williams added 15 for the Sun.

On The Rebound

Connecticut held a significant edge on the boards during regular-season meetings between these two teams. The Sun averaged 10 more boards per game than the Sparks. But in Game 1, Connecticut’s rebound edge was just 34-33.

Bench strength could spark LA. The Sparks can go 12 deep and are healthy, really for the first time all season. LA’s bench outscored Connecticut’s bench 18-5 in Game 1. Sun bench players were a combined -24 when on the floor. Connecticut’s five starters were +69.

The Sun Won’t Go Down

The home team has won all four games of the season series between theses two clubs. Expect that to continue in Game 2.

Connecticut is 10-1 SU in its last 11 at home. But the Sun are just 6-5 ATS in those games.

Pick: Connecticut Sun [-125, -1.5 (-110)].

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