Upcoming Match-ups
  • Joe Biden won the 2020 Democratic nomination before defeating Donald Trump in the presidential election
  • Biden was a massive longshot shortly after the Iowa primaries
  • See how the odds changed over time or view the current Democratic nomination odds

Joe Biden captured the 2020 Democratic nomination in come-from-behind fashion. The graph below shows how the average odds changed over time.

2020 Democratic Party Presidential Nominee Odds

  • Jul. 30: While sportsbooks continue to offer bets on who will win the nomination, Biden has secured it.
  • May 28: Michelle Obama has passed Andrew Cuomo for third-best odds.
  • May 12: Biden’s odds are still trending down, falling from -1083 to -800 since May 1st. Michelle Obama has quietly improved from +6500 to +3300 over the last month.
  • May 1: Biden’s odds have dropped from -1300 to -1083 as oddsmakers continue to pump life into the non-existent campaigns of Cuomo (+1533) and Clinton (+1317).
  • Apr. 15: Biden’s odds have gotten slightly longer (-1400 to -1300) but he remains the presumptive nominee.
  • Apr. 8: Sanders has dropped out. Biden’s odds improved from -700 to -1200, on average. But there are still three other choices on the board.
  • Apr. 4: Biden’s inability to campaign during the coronavirus pandemic continues to hurt his odds. He’s moved from -806 to -700 in the last week.
  • Mar. 30: Even though he still hasn’t entered the race, Cuomo’s odds improved from +3133 to +1306 over the last six days. He’s not the second-favorite, rocketing past Sanders (+1890).
  • Mar. 24: Perhaps trying to infuse drama into an otherwise decided race, sportsbooks have put NY Governor Andrew Cuomo on the board at +3133 (on average).
  • Mar. 20: Hillary Clinton improved from +1400 to +1267 over the last three days and is now seen as a more credible threat to Biden (-1700) than Sanders (+2000).
  • Mar. 17: No miracles for Bernie Sanders in Arizona, Florida, or Illinois. He remains a distant +1467 longshot.
  • Mar. 13: A sweeping victory last Tuesday has all but sealed the nomination for Biden (-1350).
  • Mar. 9: Biden’s odds have shortened even further ahead of “Mini Super Tuesday” on March 10th; he’s now -867, while Sanders is way back at +633.
  • Mar. 4: A huge Super Tuesday showing from Biden (-467) has made him the presumptive nominee, according to oddsmakers; Sanders dropped from +100 to +383 overnight.
  • Mar. 2: Biden’s win in South Carolina, coupled with Pete Buttigieg (another moderate) dropping out, has led to Biden (+119) closing the gap on Sanders (+100) even further.
  • Feb. 26: A solid debate performance in South Carolina has given Joe Biden a boost (+850 to +667) ahead of that state’s primary this Saturday.
  • Feb. 24: A convincing win in Nevada has moved Sanders’ odds from -127 to -150.
  • Feb. 20: Bloomberg’s first debate performance could not have gone much worse. His odds fell from +213 to +383 overnight.
  • Feb. 19: The odds show a two-way race still between Sanders (+117) and Bloomberg (+213), both of whom saw their odds get shorter over the last week.
  • Feb. 12: Bernie’s win in New Hampshire improved his odds even more. He’s up to +124, followed by Bloomberg at  +254. Amy Klobuchar is the other big gainer, going from +4640 to +1533.
  • Feb. 10: Sanders (+152) and Buttigieg (+529) both improved after co-winning Iowa, while Biden’s poor showing was Bloomberg’s gain (+358).
  • Jan. 24: Bernie Sanders (+233) is closing the gap on Biden, who remains the favorite at +192.
  • Jan. 16: Michael Bloomberg’s odds are now tied with Elizabeth Warren for third-best in the field (+667).
  • Jan. 6: Biden’s odds continue to improve; he’s now +183, the best his odds have been since Jun. 26th.
  • Dec. 17: Joe Biden is back to being the frontrunner at +290.
  • Dec. 3, 2019: Kamala Harris dropping out of the race hasn’t moved the needle much. In truth, she was already being written off at nearly +5000.
  • Nov. 26, 2019: Bloomberg has gotten even shorter, moving from +1000 to +840.
  • Nov. 14, 2019: Michael Bloomberg has instantly become a top-five contender for the Democratic nomination at +1000.
  • Nov. 1, 2019: As quickly as Warren became the odds-on favorite, she’s dropped back to +120, while Biden improved from +440 to +340.
  • Oct. 22, 2019:  Warren has become an odds-on favorite (-110) for the first time in this election cycle.
  • Sep. 25, 2019: Elizabeth Warren must be wishing the election was tomorrow. She’s at her all-time best odds of +140, while Biden sank from +290 to +300.
  • Sep. 13, 2019: Andrew Yang has entered the “legitimate contender” realm at +970, nearly catching Kamala Harris (+730) for fourth-best odds.
  • Sep. 6, 2019: Warren continues her ascent, going from +200 to +180. Meanwhile, Harris plummeted further, from +570 to +700. She’s perilously close to falling behind Andrew Yang (+1000).
  • Aug. 29, 2019: Elizabeth Warren is alone on top for the first time at +200. Biden is in second at +230 as the top-two favorites continue to separate from the crowded field.
  • Aug. 14, 2019: Kamala Harris has declined significantly, falling from +310 down to +500. Biden and Warren are still 1-2.
  • Aug. 1, 2019: Night #2 of the second round of debates resulted in Harris  (+310) recouping most of her losses, but Biden is still favored at +280, followed by Warren at +300.
  • July 31, 2019: After night #1 of the second round of debates, Harris has fallen back to +330, while Warren, Sanders, and Biden have all gotten a little shorter. Biden is back to being the outright favorite at +300.
  • July 17, 2019: Harris (+250) has blasted by Joe Biden (+410) to become the new favorite to land the nomination.
  • June 28, 2019: Kamala Harris’ odds got a big boost from her strong performance at the Democratic Primary Debates, improving from +730 to +420.
  • June 26, 2019: Elizabeth Warren is making her move ahead of the first Democratic Primary Debates. Her odds have improved from +1000 on June 10th to +680 on June 26th.
  • June 5, 2019: Beto O’Rourke’s 2020 Democratic Nominee odds are now the longest they’ve been since October when they were +2000.
  • May 13, 2019: Once a leading candidate, Beto O’Rourke is now in danger of falling out of the top five as his odds have lengthened from +800 to +1100.
  • April 25, 2019: Joe Biden’s Democratic Nomination odds have gotten a big boost following his announcement that he’s running for President in 2020. His average odds have gone from +450 on April 5th to +330 on April 25th.
  • April 5, 2019: Bernie Sanders is pulling away from the pack amid news that his volunteer base has now surpassed 1 million.
  • March 13, 2019: Bernie Sanders (+340) has taken the lead, but Kamala Harris (+350) and Beto O’Rourke (+400) are both close behind.
  • November 7, 2018: Beto O’Rourke may have lost his recent bid to become a US Senator, but he has an excellent shot of becoming the next leader of the Democratic Party. The charismatic Texan saw his odds improve from +2000 to +500 following his defeat to Ted Cruz during the US Midterms.
  • October 31, 2018: Kamala Harris remains the favorite to lead the Democratic Party with average odds of +380 as we near the US Midterm Elections.
  • October 15, 2018: Just three weeks remain until the Midterms and the Democrats have emerged with -220 odds to win the House of Representatives.
  • August 28, 2018: Kamala Harris has emerged as the favorite to take on Donald Trump in the 2020 Presidential Election. She’s ramping up her national profile and her upcoming memoir, The Truths We Hold: An American Journey, is scheduled for early 2019.

2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee Odds

Candidate Narrowest 2020 Democratic Nomination Odds
Joe Biden -967
Hillary Clinton +1300
Michelle Obama +3867
Andrew Cuomo +4333

Odds as of May 28, 2020. 

Past Democratic Party Nominees

Year Name Popular Vote Percentage
2016 Hillary Clinton 48.2%
2012 Barack Obama* 51.1%
2008 Barack Obama* 52.9%
2004 John Kerry 48.3%
2000 Al Gore 48.4%
1996 Bill Clinton* 49.2%
1992 Bill Clinton* 43.0%
1988 Michael Dukakis 45.7%
1984 Walter Mondale 40.6%
1980 Jimmy Carter 41.0%

*Elected President of the United States

Bill Clinton received only 43% of the popular vote in 1992 but still managed to win the presidency as independent candidate Ross Perot garnered close to 20 million votes. It was the first time since 1968 that a candidate won the election while falling short of the 50% threshold.