2028 Democratic Party Presidential Nominee Odds Tracker
By Kevin Wolff
Updated:
- Governor of California, Gavin Newsom, is the favorite to be the 2028 Democratic Party Presidential Nominee
- Newsom is heavily favored over the likes of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg, and others
- See the 2028 Democratic nomination odds for all the candidates in the running
As the Midterm Elections come into focus, Gavin Newsom is currently the favorite to be the 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee. The odds have remained in Newsom’s favor as the gap continues to hold between him and the field.
The graphs below show how the average odds have changed over time.
2028 Democratic Party Presidential Nominee Odds
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Gavin Newsom is currently favored to win the 2028 Democratic nomination. Behind him in the prediction markets are Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and former Vice President Kamala Harris, who was defeated in the last U.S. Presidential Election.
2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee Odds
Democratic Presidential Nominee odds as of March 16, 2026, on Kalshi.
- January 21, 2026: Gavin Newsom announces the Trump administration blocked him from speaking at the Davos forum. His odds to win the nomination are at 34% (+194).
- December 13, 2025: Gavin Newsom attends DNC Winter Summit. His odds to win the nomination are at 36% (+178).
- November 9, 2025: Gavin Newsom’s Proposition 50 victory boosts his national profile. His odds to win the nomination are at 37% (+170).
- October 25, 2025: Kamala Harris campaigns in the Tennessee Special Election. His chances of winning the nomination are at 6% (+1567).
- September 24, 2025: Kamala Harris Campaign Account redesignated as PAC. Her odds to win the nomination are at 5% (+1900).
- September 19, 2025: Bernie Sanders endorses Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for a 2028 Presidential run. Her odds to win the Democratic nomination are at 10% (+900).
- August 2, 2025: Gavin Newsom proposes a Special Election for California Redistricting. His odds to win the nomination are at 20% (+400).
- June 25, 2025: House Ethics Committee requires Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to pay additional fees for Met Gala attendance in 2021. Her odds to win the nomination are at 10% (+900).
Past Democratic Party Nominees
| Year | Name | Popular Vote Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Kamala Harris | 48.3% |
| 2020 | Joe Biden* | 50.8% |
| 2016 | Hillary Clinton | 48.2% |
| 2012 | Barack Obama* | 51.1% |
| 2008 | Barack Obama* | 52.9% |
| 2004 | John Kerry | 48.3% |
| 2000 | Al Gore | 48.4% |
| 1996 | Bill Clinton* | 49.2% |
| 1992 | Bill Clinton* | 43.0% |
| 1988 | Michael Dukakis | 45.7% |
| 1984 | Walter Mondale | 40.6% |
| 1980 | Jimmy Carter | 41.0% |
*Elected President of the United States
Bill Clinton received only 43% of the popular vote in 1992, but still managed to win the presidency as independent candidate Ross Perot garnered close to 20 million votes. It was the first time since 1968 that a candidate won the election while falling short of the 50% threshold.
Archived Democratic nomination odds:
After years of writing as well as Data Analyst work for Pro Football Focus, Kevin Wolff is now a Sports Betting Writer for SportRadar, and more specifically, SBD. A graduate of Fordham University in NYC, Kevin is also a full-time dog dad when he's not writing.
