2024 Democratic Party Presidential Nominee Odds Tracker

• Look back at the odds to win the 2024 Democratic nominee
• Vice President Kamala Harris received the nomination after Joe Biden dropped out
• See the progression from start to finish for the 2024 Democratic nomination, including the betting odds/markets for all the candidates who were in the running

In an unprecedented occurrence, President Joe Biden ended his re-election bid on July 21, 2024, becoming the first incumbent president to do so before Election Day since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968. Biden did not seek re-election, and shortly after his announcement to drop out of the race, he endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris. Harris became the new favorite to be the 2024 Democratic nominee.

The graphs below show how the average odds changed over time.

2024 Democratic Party Presidential Nominee Odds

Kamala Harris closed as the favorite to win the 2024 Democratic nomination after Joe Biden officially exited the race and endorsed his VP as his replacement on the 2024 Democratic ticket.

• July 23, 2024: Harris reportedly has the support of over half of the DNC delegates and her odds to win the nomination have shortened to -3300.
• July 21, 2024: Biden has dropped out of the race! Kamala Harris is -400 to win the Democratic nomination after Biden endorsed her as his replacement on the ticket. Michelle Obama and Gretchen Whitmer are co-second-favorites at a distant +1200.
• July 18, 2024: After Biden tested positive for COVID, his odds plummeted to +250 while Harris has improved to -200 to win the 2024 Democratic nomination.
• July 7, 2024: Despite Biden’s insistence that he is running, the odds have flipped back and Vice President Harris is once again the slight favorite to win the 2024 Democratic Party nomination.
• July 4, 2024: After a brief stint as an underdog, Joe Biden is back to being the slight favorite to be the Dem nominee. Biden is holding onto a slim lead at +125 versus Kamala Harris’ +150 odds.
• July 3, 2024: In a surprise turn of events, Kamala Harris has become the new favorite to be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 Presidential Election. Harris’ odds improved from +500 to +110, while Biden’s faded from -188 to +200.
• June 27, 2024: After a poor performance in the debate against Trump, Biden’s odds to win the Democratic nominee quickly tanked. He still remained the favorite, but more movement is likely to come.
• Aug. 16, 2023: Biden’s 2024 Democratic nominee odds have faded from -425 to -328 over the summer, while Gavin Newsom (+600) has overtaken Robert Kennedy Jr (+950) as the second-favorite.
• May 30, 2023: Biden is now -425 to win the 2024 nomination, with anti-vaxxer Robert F. Kennedy Jr. a distant second at +1000.
• Feb. 15, 2023: Incumbent Biden has become the presumptive nominee, now sitting at -188 roughly a year away from the first Democratic primary.
• Dec. 20, 2021: Vice President Harris continues to fade, now sitting at +195. She was +148 in early November. Among the longshots, Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown made the biggest gains (from +5000 to +3750).
• Nov. 1, 2021: Biden widened his lead on Vice President Harris.
• Sep. 20, 2021: Beto O’Rourke improved from +4700 to +3700, putting him in the top ten.
• Sep. 1, 2021: Biden faded from +120 to +153 in the wake of withdrawing from Afghanistan. Harris also faded slightly from +165 to +170 as the entire administration has attracted negative press.
• Aug. 2, 2021: Biden’s lead over Harris  has grown to +125 vs +165. Michelle Obama (+1500) surged into third, ahead of Elizabeth Warren, who faded from +1500 to +2000.
• June 25, 2021: Joe Biden (+123) now has a small edge on Harris (+140) with Warren a distant third at +1500.
• May 14, 2021: Biden (+160) and Harris (+158) shortened resulting in the second-tier candidates – Ocasio-Cortez (+1600), Buttigieg (+1700), Warren (+2650) – fading slightly.
• May 7, 2021: Biden and Harris are back to level at +182. Pete Buttigieg improved from +1800 to +1667 (fourth-favorite) and Elizabeth Warren faded from +1600 to +2167 (now the fifth-favorite).
• Apr. 15, 2021: Vice President Kamala Harris (+175) continues to sit just ahead of incumbent Joe Biden (+200). Both are trending shorter. Former Minnesota Senator Al Franken – who resigned amid allegations of sexual misconduct – has popped up at +3300.
• Feb. 17, 2021: The only notable movement is Biden (+238 to +225) and Harris (+225 to +200) getting a little shorter while third-favorite Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez faded from +950 to +1050.
• Jan. 27, 2021: The odds have not changed over the past week.
• Jan. 22, 2021: AOC (+950) and Michelle Obama (+1300), the third and fourth-favorites, both got longer after the Biden/Harris inauguration.
• Jan. 8, 2021: President-elect Biden continues to see his odds shorten, going from +375 to +238, overtaking his VEEP, Kamala Harris (+250), in the process.
• Dec. 10. 2020: Joe Biden (+375)  is closing in on his own VEEP, Kamala Harris (+300), at the top of the 2024 Democratic nomination odds.
• Nov. 26, 2020: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez now has the third-best odds, improving from +1000 to +675 and moving in front of Andrew Yang (+800).
• Nov. 6, 2020: Kamala (+250) Harris is favored – by a wide margin – to be the 2024 Democratic nominee while President-elect Joe Biden is a distant second at +700.

We are tracking the current Dem nominee odds as well. Use the link to see the favorite to win the next Democratic nomination.