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  • The graphs below display the average odds to win the 2024 Republican party nomination
  • Outgoing President Donald Trump is still the second-favorite to represent the GOP four years from now
  • Nikki Haley and Mike Pence are the other early front-runners

This page monitors the online betting odds to win the 2024 Republican party presidential nomination.

Soon-to-be one-term President Donald Trump is among the contenders, but finds a couple names ahead of him on the board, including his VEEP.

The graph below was generated by averaging the odds from multiple online sportsbooks and was updated regularly to reflect the biggest new stories, trends, and political developments.

2024 Republican Party Presidential Nominee Odds

  • Mar. 1, 2021: There were two big winners from the CPAC conference last weekend: Trump improved from +525 to +275 after hinting at a 2024 run; DeSantis leapt from +1300 to +550, as polls indicated he was the second-choice for most GOPers after Trump.
  • Feb. 17, 2021: The three favorites – Pence, Trump Sr, and Haley – all saw their odds fade slightly as the odds for secondary contenders like Ron DeSantis (Gov. of FL) and Mike Pompeo (former Sec. of State and CIA Director) improved.
  • Jan. 27, 2021: Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, and Donald Trump remain the top-three favorites, despite a real possibility of Trump being banned from holding public office via his second impeachment trial.
  • Jan. 22, 2021: There was no significant odds movement after President Biden’s inauguration.
  • Jan. 8, 2021: Calls for his resignation, removal, and/or impeachment aren’t hurting Trump’s odds to be the GOP nominee in 2024; he remains at +500, tied for second-best on the board with Nikki Haley.
  • Dec. 10, 2020: Lame-duck Trump improved again (+600 to +500) but still trails outgoing VEEP Mike Pence (+375) and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley (+425).
  • Nov. 26, 2020: Donald Trump Sr saw his odds improve modestly from +650 to +600 as he continues his farfetched legal bid to stay in power.
  • Nov. 12, 2020: Mike Pence (+375) and Nikki Haley (+425) are the early favorites to be the next leader of the Republican party. Donald Trump Sr. is at +650.

2024 Republican Presidential Nominee Odds

Candidate Odds
Mike Pence Donald Trump Sr. +275
Ron DeSantis +550
Nikki Haley +650
Mike Pence +800
Ted Cruz +1600
John Kasich +1700
Tom Cotton +1950
Josh Hawley +2000
Donald Trump Jr. +2250
Mike Pompeo +2250
Kristi Noem +2400
Dan Crenshaw +2450
Carly Fiorina +2500
Mark Cuban +2500

Odds as of March 1st, 2021.

Past Republican Party Nominees

Year Name Popular Vote Percentage
2020 Donald Trump 47.4%
2016 Donald Trump* 46.1%
2012 Mitt Romney 47.2%
2008 John McCain 45.7%
2004 George W. Bush* 50.7%
2000 George W. Bush* 47.9%
1996 Bob Dole 40.7%
1992 George H.W. Bush 37.5%
1988 George H.W. Bush* 53.4%
1984 Ronald Reagan* 58.8%
1980 Ronald Reagan* 50.8%

*Elected President of the United States

Remember the good old days when you actually needed to win the popular vote to win the presidency? Trump kicked that antiquated notion to the curb in 2016 when he won the election despite finishing with 2.8 million fewer votes than Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.


Archived Democratic nomination odds: 2020

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Sascha was a hockey player in his youth, a lawyer in his capricious mid-20s, and has now been an assigning editor, writer, and lead oddsmaker for SBD for over five years. He covers everything you can possibly put odds on, but specializes in football, baseball, hockey, and basketball.