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  • See the historical and current odds to win the 2024 Presidential election 
  • As of July 2024, Donald Trump is heavily favored over Kamala Harris & incumbent Joe Biden
  • Use the graphs below to see how the Presidential odds have changed over time

The next US Presidential Election will take place on Tuesday, Nov. 5th, 2024. Democratic incumbent Joe Biden, who started his presidency at age 77, will be 81 on Election Day. In a rare occurrence, the incumbent was not favored in the opening election odds, and he now sees his VP Kamala Harris overtake him as the favorite among Democrats.

The graphs and tables, below, show the odds for President-Elect Biden and all other candidates on the board.

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2024 US Presidential Odds

Donald Trump is currently the favorite to win the 2024 Presidential Election and become the 47th President of the United States. He is currently favored over Kamala Harris and Joe Biden in the race.

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2024 Election Odds

Candidate (Party)  Odds
Donald Trump (GOP) -175
Kamala Harris (Dem) +400
Joe Biden (Dem) +650
Michelle Obama (Dem) +1200
Gavin Newsom (Dem) +1400
Gretchen Whitmer (Dem) +2200
Hillary Clinton (Dem) +5000
Robert Kennedy Jr (Independent) +6600

Donald Trump is the odds-on favorite to win the 2024 Presidential election with -175 odds. Based off the odds, Trump is given a 63.6% chance to win the election this November. A $20 bet on Trump would stand to win $11.43 and return $31.43.

In a surprise turn of events, Kamala Harris is now given the second-best odds to win the election, not Biden. After Biden’s lousy showing at the debate, Harris has jumped him in the odds. The current VP is given +400 odds to become the President, which implies a 20% chance. A $20 bet on Harris would stand to win $80 and return $100.

Biden, meanwhile, has the third-best odds on the board at +650. But who knows how long he will have odds, as there are many urging him to step aside.

Odds as of July 4, 2024, at bet365.

Timeline of Presidential Odds Movement

  • July 3, 2024: With rumors swirling of Biden potentially stepping down, or at least being pushed to by some in the party, Kamala Harris has seen her odds to win the Presidential election improve from +2000 to +500, while Biden has faded from +160 to +650. It is the first time since 2021 that Biden did not have the best odds among Democrats to win the election. Gavin Newsom, who saw significant movement after the debate, has moved back to +1200 after being as short as +500.
  • June 27, 2024: Though Trump didn’t really do anything to “win” the debate, he was much more attentive and better spoken than Joe Biden, whose performance can be summarized as nothing short of a disaster. The result was Trump moving from -150 odds to win the 2024 election to -175, and Gavin Newsom has emerged as a contender going from +2000 odds to +550.
  • January 22, 2024: After crushing the field in the Iowa caucuses, GOP frontrunner Donald Trump has surpassed Joe Biden in the 2024 election odds.
  • August 16, 2023: While Biden (+160) and Trump (+213) remain the top-two betting favorites in the 2024 election odds, Vivek Ramaswamy (+1100) and Gavin Newsom (+1300) have both overtaken Ron DeSantis (+1350), who has faded all the way from third to fifth.
  • April 2, 2023: Biden is a tepid +195 betting favorite 19 months from election day. Amid his New York indictment, Trump’s odds have actually improved to +275, overtaking DeSantis (+360) for second-favorite.
  • January 26, 2023: DeSantis has become the outright favorite at +200, while Biden has improved to +300 and Trump has faded to +425.
  • August 2, 2022: Trump is back on top at +247, while DeSantis remains at +300 and Biden has faded to +600.
  • July 3, 2022: Ron DeSantis has taken over from Trump (+333) and Biden (+525) as the outright favorite, but at tepid +300 odds.
  • Mar. 20, 2022: Trump is still favored (+288) and Biden has faded again to +463.
  • Dec. 20, 2021: Trump’s status as the 2024 favorite is holding. He improved from +300 to +235. Biden faded slightly from +375 to +338, while Harris faded significantly from +500 to +800.
  • Nov. 1, 2021: Donald Trump is the new favorite to win the White House in 2024. This is the first time this election cycle that a Republican has been considered the front-runner in the betting market.
  • Sep. 20, 2021: The only change among the top-three saw Trump shorten from +483 to +467.
  • Sep. 1, 2021: The Biden administration’s hasty exit from Afghanistan has impacted the odds negatively for the President. Biden faded from +375 to +383. But Vice-President Harris improved from +400 to +383. Trump also improved (+575 to +483).
  • Aug. 2, 2021: The top-two Republicans, Trump and DeSantis, both shortened (to +575 and +950, respectively) while President Biden stayed at +375 and Vice-President Harris faded to +400. All in all, good signs for the GOP.
  • June 25, 2021: Donald Trump is back at +600, on average, after falling as far as +1567 early in 2021. He is the third-favorite and remains the top Republican on the board, followed by DeSantis (+1067).
  • May 14, 2021: Harris (+367) has inched back in front of Biden (+375), while Trump (+617) got shorter and continues to be the favorite among the Republicans.
  • May 7, 2021:  DeSantis’ odds shortened again, this time from +1483 to +1217. He remains the fourth-favorite behind Biden (+375), Harris (+375), and Trump Sr. (+650).
  • Apr. 13, 2021: Joe Biden’s odds shortened from +388 to +331, despite the fact that his dog Major just bit a member of the White House security personnel.
  • Mar. 24, 2021: Ron DeSantis continues his ascent up the odds, improving from +2567 to +1833 over the past three weeks.
  • Mar. 1, 2021: Donald Trump’s odds improved from +900 to +683 after his CPAC speech, in which he hinted at a 2024 presidential run.
  • Feb. 17, 2021: Impeachment trial in the rearview mirror, Trump improved from +1567 to +900, largely motivated by the fact that he was not banned from holding public office.
  • Feb. 9, 2021: Somebody somewhere bet a decent sum of money on Amazon chairman Jeff Bezos. His odds moved from +25000 to +2000.
  • Jan. 27, 2021: The past week has not produced any meaningful changes in the odds. Donald Trump Jr moved from 25th-favorite to 23rd-favorite at +4667.
  • Jan. 22, 2021: The My PIllow Guy (Mike Lindell) is on the board at +15000. The end can’t be far off now.
  • Jan. 14, 2021: With his second impeachment finalized, Trump’s odds took a steep drop from +867 to +1567. He’s now behind two member of his own party: Mike Pence (+1200) and Nikki Haley (+1333).
  • Jan. 7, 2021: Donald Trump’s odds to win a second term in 2024 have faded from +667 to +867 after his supporters stormed the Capitol.
  • Dec. 23, 2020: For the first time since the 2020 election ended, incumbent Joe Biden is favored to win reelection in 2024. At +400, he sits narrowly ahead of Vice-President Kamala Harris (+413).
  • Dec. 10, 2020: The reelection odds for president elect Joe Biden improved from +663 to +413 over the past week as early money is backing the incumbent.
  • Dec. 4, 2020: Rumors that outgoing President Donald Trump is planning a run in 2024 has led to his odds shortening from +1500 to +867.
  • Nov. 27, 2020: Before he has even been sworn in as the 46th president, Joe Biden’s odds to win reelection are already getting worse. He opened at +675 but is a +850 second-favorite as of today.
  • Nov. 8, 2020: Joe Biden opened as the +675 second-favorite to win the 2024 election, trailing his Vice President, Kamala Harris (+425).

 

2024 Presidential Odds – Longshots

 

Winning Party Odds

July 4, 2022: The odds have flipped from last year, with the GOP now a -145 favorite and the Democrats at +118 to win the 2024 presidential election.

Sep. 20, 2021: The Democrats are holding onto their lead in the winning-party odds, but it’s shrunk slightly. The odds are now -139 for the Dems and +107 for the GOP.

Aug. 2, 2021: The early 2024 election odds show the Dems as -150 favorites with the GOP at +120.

Nov. 9, 2020: Eight of the top-ten favorites in the opening 2024 election odds are Democrats, so it’s likely that the Dems will be heavy favorites when the party odds are first posted.

Party Odds
Democrats -110
Republicans -110
Independent +2500

Odds as of August 16, 2023, at DraftKings Sportsbook.

 

US Presidential Odds for Celebrity Candidates


Archived presidential election odds: 2020