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  • See the historical and current Donald Trump re-election odds 
  • Compare his odds to Democratic challenger Joe Biden 
  • Trump recently took over as the favorite (again)

The 2020 Presidential election will pit incumbent Donald Trump against Democratic nominee Joe Biden and his Vice-Presidential running-mate Kamala Harris. The graphs and tables, below, show the odds for both candidates (and those who have fallen by the wayside) over the last several years.

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2020 US Presidential Odds

Changes in Win Probability Over Time

 

Timeline of Updates

  • Sep. 19: There isn’t necessarily a causative relation between the two, but Biden’s odds improved to -126 after the death of Ruth Bader Ginsberg, while Trump faded from +100 to +103.
  • Sep. 16: Biden’s lead over Trump has grown to a -122/+100 advantage.
  • Sep. 9: Biden is once again favored over Trump, on average, with the candidates sitting at -114 and -110, respectively.
  • Sep. 5: Trump’s momentum has been staunched. His odds went from -117 to -116. Biden improved from -106 to -109.
  • Aug. 31: Trump’s uptick continued and he is now favored over Biden (-117 to -106, on average)
  • Aug. 28: The candidates are now almost dead-even. Biden is -115 on average. Trump is -110.
  • Aug. 24: As the Republican National Convention begins, Trump (+104) is holding steady, while Biden (-136) faded just a hair.
  • Aug. 21: By all accounts, Biden had a highly successful final night of the Democratic National Convention, yet his odds (-138) continued to cede ground to Trump (+104).
  • Aug. 17: Trump has eaten further into Biden’s lead, as the VP choice of Kamala Harris continues to do nothing for the Democratic nominee.
  • Aug. 12: The day after selecting Harris as his VP, Biden has still not received the odds boost many were expecting. The odds are now -156 for Biden and +127 for Trump.
  • Aug. 10: On the eve of picking his VP candidate, Biden’s odds had slipped from -170 to -157, while Trump’s odds had improved from +142 to +128. Now we wait to see what oddsmakers think of Biden’s choice of Kamala Harris.
  • Aug. 4: Trump’s odds improved slightly from +149 to +142.
  • July 27: No news is good news for Trump. He’s leveled off at +149, while Biden stayed at -175 this past week.
  • July 22: New update, same outcome: Biden’s odds improve (-168 to -175) while Trump’s odds get worse (+144 to +151).
  • July 17: Joe Biden’s odds have reached an all-time best of -168. Trump has dropped to +144, his second-worst in 2020.
  • July 10: Trump mounted a brief rally earlier this week, improving from +148 to +130, but he’s back to +136 as of Friday.
  • June 30: This is turning into a broken record. Trump keeps flailing in the polls and in the political futures. He sank from +135 to +148. Biden improved from -159 to -166.
  • June 25: A resurgence in coronavirus cases is coinciding with further fading of Trump’s reelection odds (down from +123 to +135).
  • June 21: Trump’s comments at his Tulsa rally – stating that he asked for COVID-19 testing to “slow down” – have, unsurprisingly, sent the President’s reelection odds further south (from +113 to +123). Biden shortened from -130 to -145.
  • June 15: Libertarian Jo Jorgensen is on the board at a distant +25000, but her potential to siphon votes from Trump has further hurt the President’s reelection odds, which fell from +108 to +113.
  • June 8: A positive jobs report on Friday wasn’t enough to help Trump’s re-election odds, which fell further on Monday (+101 to +108). Biden shortened from -113 to -123 after officially wrapping up the Democratic nomination.
  • June 3: The protests sweeping across the nation are having a huge impact on the election futures. Biden (-114) now leads Trump (+101), who is plus-money for the first time since Nov. 2019.
  • June 1: Biden (+110) improved slightly while Trump’s odds (-130) got slightly longer.
  • May 28: Trump (-132) is stagnating; Biden (+112) is seeing his odds rebound.
  • May 12: Trump (-131) and Biden (+120) continue to hover in the same range as last week and the week before.
  • May 1: The biggest change this time around is that Biden has fallen from +114 to +123. It’s not because Trump has improved; it’s because oddsmakers aren’t writing off other Democrats who aren’t officially in the race (see Andrew Cuomo and Hillary Clinton).
  • Apr. 24: Trump’s odds (-129) have shortened as coronavirus deaths come in under the worst estimates, but his comments on injecting disinfectant as a possible cure could undo that progress.
  • Apr. 15: Obama’s official endorsement coupled with revelations on how badly Trump has bungled the country’s COVID-19 response have given Joe Biden (+110) a boost.
  • Apr. 8: Bernie Sanders’ exit has led to Joe Biden’s odds improving from +130 to +114.
  • Apr. 4: Mark Cuban (+25000) is back on the board for the first time in almost six weeks.
  • Mar. 30: Biden has fallen from +100 to +130 as coronavirus limits his ability to campaign. Cuomo (+2488) has seen the biggest gains, despite the fact that he’s still not officially in the race.
  • Mar. 24: Multiple sportsbooks are now offering odds on NY Governor Andrew Cuomo at +5000.
  • Mar. 20: The movement is slight, but Trump (-115) and Biden (-101) continue to move closer together. Biden is now favored at some sportsbooks.
  • Mar. 17: Trump’s odds have stabilized at -116. Biden remains close behind at +102. Mike Pence is now the third favorite at +3800.
  • Mar. 13: Trump (-109) and Biden (+100)  are almost tied now in what has been a disastrous few days for the President.
  • Mar. 9: The spread of coronavirus and continued declines in the stock market are crushing Trump’s re-election chances; he’s fallen from -180 to -134 in the span of five days.
  • Mar. 4: Biden’s big showing on Super Tuesday has boosted his odds from +924 to +164. Trump meanwhile has dropped from -205 to -180.
  • Feb. 28: A coronavirus spreads and the stock market crashes, Trump’s re-election odds are trending down, if only slightly (-210 to -205).
  • Feb. 24: Sanders has seen the biggest gains after the Nevada primary (+359 to +268), while Trump has basically held steady (-214 to -210).
  • Feb. 19: Bloomberg made the biggest gains over the past week. His odds shortened from +838 to +511 prior to his first debate appearance tonight.
  • Feb. 10: After being acquitted in the Senate impeachment trial and watching the Democratic cluster—- in Iowa, Trump has improved to -203.
  • Jan. 29: Trump’s odds continue to hover around a strong -160, but there’s significant movement among the Dems: Sanders (+422) now has the best odds; Biden fell to +543.
  • Jan. 20: Impeachment trial be darned, Trump’s odds are now -164, even shorter than last week. This is the best his odds have ever been, dating back to Jan. 2018.
  • Jan. 16: Trump’s odds have not been hurt by the Iran conflagration, moving from -150 to -162 over the last ten days.
  • Jan. 6: President Trump is now -150 to win re-election, the shortest his odds have ever been (including during the 2016 election).
  • Dec. 3, 2019: Trump is shorter than even-money again (-110) because of course he is.
  • Nov. 26, 2019: Pete Buttigieg has moved up significantly (+820) largely at the expense of Elizabeth Warren (+630)
  • Nov. 14, 2019: Michael Bloomberg was at +10000 odds before he even said he wanted to run; now he’s at an optimistic +1700!
  • Nov. 1, 2019: For the first time since April, Trump’s odds (+120) give him less than a 50% chance to win the 2020 election.
  • Oct. 22, 2019: Trump (-110) continues to be the odds-on favorite
  • Oct. 10: Two Democrat women are making huge gains. Warren’s upward trajectory continued (+310 to +230), and Hillary Clinton(?!) is suddenly surging (+5800 to +2500).
  • Sep. 25, 2019: We have movement! Trump’s impeachment odds are on the rise and that’s led to Elizabeth Warren jumping from +370 to +310.
  • Sep. 13, 2019: Not much change at the top. Trump remains at -110 while Democratic frontrunner Elizabeth Warren is still +370 to be the next POTUS.
  • Sep. 6, 2019:  Kamala Harris continues her precipitous drop. Once as short as +680, she’s the now a distant +1500 to become the first female President. But Elizabeth Warren has shot up to +370!
  • Aug. 29, 2019: Trump’s odds fell back slightly to -110, while Elizabeth Warren made the biggest gains (+680 to +460) and now sits alone in second.
  • Aug. 14, 2019: Trump is now -130, the shortest his odds have been during this election cycle.
  • Jul. 17, 2019: Trump remains the chalk, but fell from -120 to +100, while new Democratic frontrunner Kamala Harris made gains.
  • Jun. 28, 2019: Donald Trump is still favored to win the 2020 Election with -120 average odds, but Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren are gaining ground. Harris’ average US Presidential odds went from +1300 on June 10th to +820 on June 28th and Warren’s went from +1700 to +1100 over the same time period.
  • Jun. 10, 2019: Andrew Yang is emerging as a genuine contender with +2100 odds.
  • May 27, 2019: Oddsmakers seem to be losing faith in Pete Buttigieg, whose average US Presidential odds lengthened from +1200 on May 16th to +1500 on May 27th.
  • May 16, 2019: Trump’s 2020 Presidential odds remain unchanged despite damning new tax documents that reveal he lost over $1 billion from 1985 to 1994.
  • Apr. 25, 2019: Joe Biden is officially making his move. The former VP has announced his intentions to run for President in 2020.
  • Mar. 25, 2019: The Mueller Report is out and Donald Trump appears to have emerged unscathed… so far. The POTUS saw his odds improve from +110 to +100.
  • Jan. 22, 2019: Is Donald Trump’s government shutdown shutting him down from re-election as President of the United States in 2020? It certainly seems that way as his odds have lengthened from +120 to +180.
  • Jan. 10, 2019: Don’t look now, but Elizabeth Warren has emerged as a bona fide presidential candidate. Her odds improved significantly from +2300 on December 14th to +1700 on January 10th.
  • Nov. 7, 2018: Trump’s odds to win the 2020 Presidential Election jumped from +100 to +110 hours after the Republicans lost the House of Representatives in the US Midterm Elections.
  • Oct. 31, 2018: Halloween may be a scary time for some, but not for Trump, whose odds of serving a second term have shortened from +110 to +100 despite rampant speculation the Republicans will lose the House of Representatives in the upcoming Midterms.
  • Oct. 15, 2018: Donald Trump remains the heavy favorite to win the 2020 Presidential Election with odds of +110. His next closest competitor, Kamala Harris, is still far back at +1000.

2020 US Presidential Election Odds Top Contenders

Candidate 2020 Election Odds
Joe Biden -126
Donald Trump +103
 Kamala Harris +6700
Mike Pence +12333
Hillary Clinton +20000
Michelle Obama +40000
Nikki Haley +53333
Andrew Cuomo +82500
Elizabeth Warren +155000
Kanye West +107500

Odds as of Sep. 19th, 2020.


2020 US Presidential Election Winning Party Odds

Party Odds
Democrats -129
Republicans +103

Odds as of Aug.24th, 2020.

Sep. 15th: The Dems have a little breathing room again, holding a -125 to +100 advantage.

Sep. 9th: After flip-flopping back and forth over the last month, the Democrats (-116) are trending back towards being a solid favorite.

Aug. 4th: The GOP’s odds have staged a modest rally, improving from +154 to +141.

July 22nd: After a modest improvement in early July, the GOP is now at its worst odds in this election cycle at +154.

June 30th: Even though Mike Pence’s personal odds to win the presidency improved from +7900 to +4675, the GOP as a party continued to plummet (+124 to +134).

June 25th: The “blue surge” continues, odds-wise, with the Democrats now -159 to take back the White House (improved from -138 last week).

June 15th: The entire GOP is now in plus-money, dropping from -101 to +103, marking the first time since tracking started that the Republicans are being given less than a 50% chance to win the White House in 2020.

June 8: The movement towards the Democrats continued this week, improving from -119 to -127. The GOP fell from -110 to -101.

June 3: The Dems (-119) are now favored to take back the White House for the first time since Aug. 2019.

June 1: As protests over the death of George Floyd continue and coronavirus exacts a massive death toll on the US population, the odds are moving in the Democrats favor.

Apr. 15: The Dems (-110) and GOP (-116) are neck and neck again, largely due to reports surfacing on Trump’s poor decision making relating to coronavirus back in January and February.

Mar. 17: Sportsbooks believe the race for the White House is basically dead-heat at this point with the GOP at -117 and the Dems at -110, on average.

Mar. 9: As Trump’s odds keep slumping, the Democrats’ odds of taking back the White House (+110) are the shortest they have been since Jan. 6th.

Mar. 4: With the Dems (sort of) getting their act together on Super Tuesday and rallying behind Biden, their odds of winning on November have improved from +158 to +147.

Feb. 5: The fiasco that was the Iowa caucuses has hurt the Dem’s chances of winning in 2020, dropping the party to +131.

Jan. 29: Very little movement in the winning-party odds during the impeachment trial, to the Dems’ dismay.

Jan. 16: The GOP widened the gap even more over the past couple weeks, now sitting at -166 versus +128 for the Dems.

Jan. 6: In keeping with Trump’s improving odds, the GOP is now a -150 favorite to win the 2020 election with the Dems falling to +110.

Nov. 26, 2019: The impeachment hearings are not moving the line of which part will win the 2020 election.

Nov. 1, 2019: Still no changes, despite the Trump impeachment proceedings steaming ahead.

Oct. 22, 2019: No changes over the last month.

Sep. 13, 2019: The odds remain relatively stable. The Dems are +100 on average with the GOP at -130.

Sep. 6, 2019: Hurricane Dorian gaffes haven’t impacted Trump’s odds much at all and the GOP is still a slight favorite.

Aug. 29, 2019: The Dems (-110) and the GOP (-120) are nearly even entering September. Good news for the blues.

Aug. 14, 2019: The odds have narrowed as of early August with the GOP falling from -160 to -130.

Jul. 17, 2019: The GOP is as short as its been during this election cycle, moving from slight-underdog status in late June to -160 favorite in mid-July.

Odds for Past US Presidential Candidates

Hillary Clinton made the wrong kind of history in 2016 when she became just the fifth US Presidential candidate to lose the election despite winning the popular vote. The former First Lady received nearly three million more popular votes than Trump, but carried ten fewer states and garnered 77 fewer electoral votes.

US Presidential Odds for Celebrity Candidates

Millennials may find this hard to believe, but Trump isn’t America’s first celebrity president. That honor belongs to Ronald Reagan, who starred in 80 films and television productions from 1937 to 1965. The “Great Communicator” was best known for roles like George Gipp in Knute Rockne, All American, and Jack Browning in The Killers.

The crop of celebrities with political aspirations is highlighted by Oprah Winfrey, who has impressive clout and a net worth of $2.9 billion, and Dwayne Johnson, who confirmed he’s strongly considering a presidential run as recently as July. Both celebs have the resources and star power to drum up a ton of support at the polls.