2024 US Presidential Election Odds Tracker
Updated September 20, 2021
- See the historical and current odds to win the 2024 Presidential election
- President Biden and Vice-President Harris are in a virtual dead heat at the top of the board
- Will Donald Trump run again? Use the graphs below to see how the odds have changed over time
The next US Presidential Election will take place on Tuesday, Nov. 25th, 2024. Democratic incumbent Joe Biden, who started his presidency at age 77, will be 81 on Election Day. In a rare occurrence, the incumbent was not favored in the opening election odds.
The graphs and tables, below, show the odds for President-Elect Biden and all other candidates on the board.
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- Odds by Candidate (Favorites)
- Odds by Candidate (Longshots)
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- Celebrity Presidential Odds
2024 US Presidential Odds
Timeline of Updates
- September 20, 2021: The only change among the top-three saw Trump shorten from +483 to +467.
- September 1, 2021: The Biden administration’s hasty exit from Afghanistan has impacted the odds negatively for the President. Biden faded from +375 to +383. But Vice-President Harris improved from +400 to +383. Trump also improved (+575 to +483).
- August 2, 2021: The top-two Republicans, Trump and DeSantis, both shortened (to +575 and +950, respectively) while President Biden stayed at +375 and Vice-President Harris faded to +400. All in all, good signs for the GOP.
- June 25, 2021: Donald Trump is back at +600, on average, after falling as far as +1567 early in 2021. He is the third-favorite and remains the top Republican on the board, followed by DeSantis (+1067).
- May 14, 2021: Harris (+367) has inched back in front of Biden (+375), while Trump (+617) got shorter and continues to be the favorite among the Republicans.
- May 7, 2021: DeSantis’ odds shortened again, this time from +1483 to +1217. He remains the fourth-favorite behind Biden (+375), Harris (+375), and Trump Sr. (+650).
- April 13, 2021: Joe Biden’s odds shortened from +388 to +331, despite the fact that his dog Major just bit a member of the White House security personnel.
- March 24, 2021: Ron DeSantis continues his ascent up the odds, improving from +2567 to +1833 over the past three weeks.
- March 1, 2021: Donald Trump’s odds improved from +900 to +683 after his CPAC speech, in which he hinted at a 2024 presidential run.
- Feb. 17, 2021: Impeachment trial in the rearview mirror, Trump improved from +1567 to +900, largely motivated by the fact that he was not banned from holding public office.
- Feb. 9, 2021: Somebody somewhere bet a decent sum of money on Amazon chairman Jeff Bezos. His odds moved from +25000 to +2000.
- Jan. 27, 2021: The past week has not produced any meaningful changes in the odds. Donald Trump Jr moved from 25th-favorite to 23rd-favorite at +4667.
- Jan. 22, 2021: The My PIllow Guy (Mike Lindell) is on the board at +15000. The end can’t be far off now.
- Jan. 14, 2021: With his second impeachment finalized, Trump’s odds took a steep drop from +867 to +1567. He’s now behind two member of his own party: Mike Pence (+1200) and Nikki Haley (+1333).
- Jan. 7, 2021: Donald Trump’s odds to win a second term in 2024 have faded from +667 to +867 after his supporters stormed the Capitol.
- Dec. 23, 2020: For the first time since the 2020 election ended, incumbent Joe Biden is favored to win reelection in 2024. At +400, he sits narrowly ahead of Vice-President Kamala Harris (+413).
- Dec. 10, 2020: The reelection odds for president elect Joe Biden improved from +663 to +413 over the past week as early money is backing the incumbent.
- Dec. 4, 2020: Rumors that outgoing President Donald Trump is planning a run in 2024 has led to his odds shortening from +1500 to +867.
- Nov. 27, 2020: Before he has even been sworn in as the 46th president, Joe Biden’s odds to win reelection are already getting worse. He opened at +675 but is a +850 second-favorite as of today.
- Nov. 8, 2020: Joe Biden opened as the +675 second-favorite to win the 2024 election, trailing his Vice President, Kamala Harris (+425).
2024 Election Odds
| Candidate (Party) | Odds |
|---|---|
| Joe Biden (Dem) | +383 |
| Kamala Harris (Dem) | +383 |
| Donald Trump Sr (GOP) | +467 |
| Ron DeSantis (GOP) | +933 |
| Nikki Haley (GOP) | +1733 |
| Mike Pence (GOP) | +2333 |
| Pete Buttigieg (Dem) | +2850 |
| Tucker Carlson (GOP) | +3050 |
| Elizabeth Warren (Dem) | +3767 |
| Kristi Noem (GOP) | +4150 |
| Ted Cruz (GOP) | +4167 |
| Dwayne Johnson (TBD) | +4400 |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (Dem) | +4500 |
| Mike Pompeo (GOP) | +4667 |
| Marco Rubio (GOP) | +4750 |
| Amy Klobuchar (Dem) | +4833 |
| Michelle Obama (Dem) | +4933 |
| Ivanka Trump (GOP) | +5000 |
| Jeff Bezos (TBD) | +5000 |
| Mark Cuban (TBD) | +5000 |
| Tom Cotton (GOP) | +5000 |
| Cory Booker (Dem) | +5300 |
| Josh Hawley (GOP) | +5533 |
| Donald Trump Jr (GOP) | +5833 |
Odds as of Sep. 20, 2021.
2024 Presidential Odds – Longshots
Winning Party Odds
| Party | Odds |
|---|---|
| Democrats | -150 |
| Republicans | +120 |
Odds as of Aug. 2, 2021.
Nov. 9, 2020: Eight of the top-ten favorites in the opening 2024 election odds are Democrats, so it’s likely that the Dems will be heavy favorites when the party odds are first posted.
US Presidential Odds for Celebrity Candidates
Archived presidential election odds: 2020
