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  • This year’s newly-promoted teams include Luton Town, Sheffield United and Burnley
  • Of those three, Sheffield United are heavily favored to finish last and be relegated this season
  • How many points have relegated teams finished with in recent seasons?

We’ve been tracking the English Premier League relegation odds for all 20 EPL teams since they became available. The graphs below are generated by averaging the odds from multiple sources and will be updated throughout the 2023/24 season.

EPL Relegation Odds for Championship Candidates

2024 English Premier League Relegation Odds

Team Odds
Sheffield United -20000
Burnley -1600
Luton Town -175
Nottingham Forest +200
Everton +500
Brentford +2000
Crystal Palace +2000
Fulham +250000
Bournemouth +450000

Odds as of April 12th at Bet365 Sportsbook.

Notes on the EPL Relegation odds movement over the course of the season:

  • [Apr 12] Respectively nine and six points adrift, Sheffield and Burnley are all but assured of relegation, unless either team were to put together an unexpected winning streak. The remaining question is whether Luton (-175) can leverage the point deductions levied to Nottingham (+200) and Everton (+500) and climb out of 18th place in the coming weeks.
  • [Mar 20] First Everton (+550) and now Nottingham Forest (+137) have received point deductions for breaching financial rules, but it’s Luton (-163) who remain as the third-most likely team to be relegated at the season’s end.
  • [Feb 14] Though they’re still getting the third-shortest odds to be relegated, Luton Town are now sitting +100, their longest odds of the season.
  • [Dec 19] The Christmas period is coming up in the EPL and all of the newly promoted sides could certainly use the gift of three points as 2023 comes to close. All three are still in the bottom three in the EPL table, all three of the top favorites for EPL relegation and combined they have just six wins (two wins each) even after 16-17 games each.
  • [Oct 24] Nine weeks into the new EPL season and Sheffield, Luton and Burnley still have just one win between them and could all go right back down in relegation. Bournemouth are right there with them at 0-3-6
  • [Jul 25] Luton Town are easily the biggest favorites to go back to the Championship with odds of -330 for relegation. Sheffield at -150 and Burnley and Bournemouth at +250 are next in in the relegation odds

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The first EPL team from last season to show up in the relegation odds is Bournemouth who actually start with the same odds as Burnley at +250. Bournemouth was 15th in the Premier League last season at 11-8-21. They finished with 39 points, five above Leicester who fell into the final relegation place.

Recently Relegated Teams and Points

Year Teams Points
2022/23 Leicester, Leeds, Southampton 34, 31, 25
2021-22 Burnley, Watford, Norwich 35, 23, 22
2020-21 Fulham, West Brom, Sheffield United 28, 26, 23
2019-20 Bournemouth, Watford, Norwich City 34, 34, 21
2018-19 Cardiff, Fulham, Huddersfield 34, 26, 16
2017-18 Swansea, Stoke, West Brom 33, 33, 31
2016-17 Hull, Middlesbrough, Sunderland 34, 28, 24
2015-16 Newcastle, Norwich, Aston Villa 37, 34, 17
2014-15 Hull, Burnley, QPR 35, 33, 30
2013-14 Norwich, Fulham, Cardiff 33, 32, 30
2012-13 Wigan, Reading, QPR 36, 28, 25
2011-12 Bolton, Blackburn, Wolverhampton 36, 31, 25
2010-11 Birmingham, Blackpool, West Ham 39, 39, 33
2009-10 Burnley, Hull, Portsmouth 30, 30, 19

35 points is what it took to stay in the Prem last season, something that Leicester (34), Leeds (31) and Southampton (25) failed to accomplish. They’ll be playing in the EFL Championship this season.

Joining the EPL this season is is Luton Town, Sheffield United and Burnley.

Burnley returns after a short relegation stint of just one season. They finished atop the Championship table at 29-14-3 and 101 points.

Sheffield were second at 28-7-11 with 91 points and Luton Town were third at 21-17-8 and 80 points.

Archived EPL Relegation Odds: 2022/23, 2021/22, 2020/21, 2019/20

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Ryan is SBD's resident soccer pro, though his repertoire is by no means limited to a single sport. His articles have been published by the Canadian Hockey League (CHL), Ontario Hockey League (OHL), and the Kitchener Rangers, and outlets like SportsXpress and Shredthespread.com