Arizona State vs Duke Odds, Picks & Betting Lines for Sun Bowl

Published: December 30, 2025 at 11:00 pm EST

ACC champion Duke faces Arizona State in the Sun Bowl. — Dec 6, 2025; Charlotte, NC, USA; Duke Blue Devils defensive tackle Aaron Hall (99) and defensive end Wesley Williams (97) celebrate after winning the ACC Championship game at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Duke enters as a consensus 3.5-point favorite, with 69% of the money backing the Blue Devils ATS.
Darian Mensah is the first Duke QB to throw 30 TD passes in a season
Arizona State counters with 32 sacks

Duke’s storybook season continues when the ACC champs face Arizona State in the Sun Bowl. Kickoff is set for 2 pm, ET, Wednesday (CBS).

Duke disrupted the College Football Playoff landscape when it upset Virginia in the ACC Championship Game. Duke’s win paved the way for James Madison to grab a controversial spot as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions.

Duke hopes to keep that momentum going against an Arizona State team that made the CFP last season but has struggled since losing Sam Leavitt to injury. The Sun Devils closed the regular season with a 23-7 loss to rival Arizona.

Duke rides into the Sun Bowl as 3.5-point favorites. Arizona State embraces the underdog role under third-year coach Kenny Dillingham, looking to cap a transitional season with a statement victory against a conference champ.

Arizona State vs Duke Sun Bowl Prediction: Expert Betting Analysis & Picks

There is significant betting value for sharp handicappers willing to dig beyond the surface numbers. Duke’s recent ACC Championship success has inflated its market perception, but several key factors suggest Arizona State offers excellent value as 3.5-point underdogs.

Situational Trends Favoring the Sun Devils

History doesn’t make plays, but the historical data strongly supports backing Arizona State in this spot. The Sun Devils are 8-3 against the spread as underdogs of 3+ points over the past two seasons, including a perfect 4-0 ATS mark in neutral-site games when getting points. More specifically, Arizona State is 6-1 ATS in bowl games as underdogs dating to 2019, with its physical style translating well to postseason play.

Duke’s situational trends present concerning patterns for bettors. The Blue Devils are just 3-8 ATS as favorites of 3+ points since 2023, struggling to cover larger spreads against quality opposition. Additionally, ACC teams are 12-18 ATS in nonconference bowl games over the past three seasons when favored by more than a field goal, suggesting conference champions often face motivated underdogs who rise to the occasion.

The key question for bettors? How much do you trust ASU QB Jeff Sims? The sixth-year senior was a starter at Georgia Tech and played some at Nebraska before transferring against to Arizona State. He has fared well (7 TDs, 3 INTs) in relief of Leavitt.

Total Analysis: Under 49.5 Offers Strong Value

The total has moved from 48.5 to 49.5, but situational factors point toward a lower-scoring affair. Bowl games featuring teams from different conferences have gone under the total at a 64% clip over the past five seasons when the line exceeds 48 points. Arizona State’s defensive identity, anchored by their 32-sack pass rush, should disrupt Duke’s timing-based passing attack in their first meeting against Big 12 competition.

Weather conditions in El Paso shouldn’t be an issue. Temperatures should be in the 50s at kickoff. However, games played at Sun Bowl Stadium with totals above 48 have gone under 61% of the time since 2020.

Best Picks:

Spread: Arizona State +3.5 (-117) at DraftKings Sportsbook: The situational trends and stylistic matchup favor the underdog
Total: Under 49.5 (-113) – Bowl game dynamics and defensive capabilities point to fewer points
Player Prop: Focus on Duke quarterback under completions/completion percentage props when available

Public Betting Insights: Sharp Money vs Casual Action

The college football public betting market reveals a clear divide between casual public action and larger, more sophisticated wagers. This divergence often signals valuable contrarian opportunities for astute bettors.

Spread Action Shows Sharp Disagreement

Duke is attracting heavy public support on the spread, capturing 61.4% of all tickets. However, the money tells a different story, with 69.07% of the handle backing the Blue Devils. This 8-point gap between bet percentage and money percentage indicates that larger, more confident wagers are driving the line movement in Duke’s favor. The line has already moved from Duke -1.5 to -3.5 at most sportsbooks, suggesting early sharp money established the Blue Devils as the side to back.

Moneyline Market Reveals Potential Value

The moneyline presents an even starker contrast in betting patterns. A massive 80.9% of all moneyline tickets support Duke to win outright, but these bets represent only 70.31% of the total money wagered. This disparity suggests that while recreational bettors are heavily backing the favorite, some significant wagers are taking a position on Arizona State at plus-money. When public bet percentage significantly exceeds money percentage on a favorite, it often indicates value on the underdog.

Statistical Breakdown: Key Matchups & Mismatches

Who has the edge in the Sun Bowl?

Category	Arizona State	Duke Blue
Points Per Game	24.2	33.4
Total Yards Per Game	400.5	414.6
Rushing Yards Per Game	189.4	132.5
Passing Yards Per Game	211.1	282.2
Third Down Conversion%	33.3%	39.4%
Red Zone Efficiency	79.1%	83.3%
Turnover Differential	-3	+9
Sacks (Season Total)	32	26
Penalties Per Game	7.5	6.4
Penalty Yards Per Game	59.8	62.5

Arizona State Sun Devils vs Duke Blue Devils Odds

The betting market has shown significant movement since opening lines were released, reflecting the sharp money’s confidence in Duke covering the spread in this neutral-site bowl game.

Moneyline: Duke -164 | Arizona State +138
Spread: Duke -3.5 (-104) | Arizona State +3.5 (-117)
Total: Over/Under 49.5 (Over -107 / Under -113)

(Odds as of December 30, 2025, from consensus sportsbooks.)

The line movement tells a compelling story of market confidence in the Blue Devils. Duke opened as just a 1.5-point favorite but has been bet up to -3.5, indicating substantial early money supported the ACC champions. Similarly, the moneyline has shifted from Duke -118 to the current -164, reflecting increased certainty in their ability to win outright. The total has also moved upward from 48.5 to 49.5, suggesting bettors expect both offenses to find success despite defensive capabilities.

After removing the vig from the current moneyline odds, the market implies approximately 59.7% probability for Duke and 40.3% probability for Arizona State to win the game outright. These normalized probabilities suggest the oddsmakers view this as closer to a pick-em game than the spread indicates.

For moneyline bettors, a successful $20 wager on favored Duke at -164 would return $12.20 in profit, while the same $20 bet on underdog Arizona State at +138 would yield $27.60 in profit. The risk-reward ratio clearly favors taking a shot on the Sun Devils if you believe the game will be decided by a field goal or less.

We’re taking Arizona State and the points, but if you like Duke to cover, it’s worth noting that Bet365 Sportsbook has the Blue Devils at -3 (-115) on Tuesday afternoon, Dec. 30.

Chris Wright

A 30-time APSE award-winning editor with previous stints at the Miami Herald, The Indianapolis Star and News & Observer, Chris Wright is an Evergreen and AI editor for Saturday Down South, Saturday Tradition, Crossing Broad, Sports Betting Dime and ESNY.

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