CFTC Chair Selig Says Prediction Market Guidance Coming Soon

• CFTC Chairman Michael Selig spoke on prediction markets and future guidance during a recent Milken Institute panel
• Selig said “50 different regimes” cannot regulate derivatives products across the United States
• Prediction market guidance, such as what markets can be self-certified, is coming from the CFTC soon

Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Michael Selig reported new guidance for prediction markets, such as what markets can be self-certified, is imminent during a recent panel discussion at the Milken Institute Future of Finance 2026 conference in Washington, D.C.

Selig and SEC Chairman Paul Atkins discussed market regulations during a nearly hour-long panel discussion at the Milken Institute event. Selig spoke on the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) role in regulating event contracts, its strategy to intervene in lawsuits regarding prediction market companies, and why there is room for both legal, regulated sports betting and sports event contracts in the United States.

“We did file to assert our authority in litigation and are evaluating other avenues to make sure our market participants have the ability to do business to offer derivative products, just as other federally regulated regimes are regulated, under a single set of rules and regulations,” Selig said.

Cannot Have Different Regimes For Prediction Markets

Selig asserted the CFTC’s regulatory power over prediction markets during the discussion, noting that the markets cannot also be regulated by individual U.S. states.

“We need to make sure we don’t have 50 different regimes for our derivatives products across the United States,” he said.

The CFTC has already moved to defend this position in court, as it recently filed an amicus brief in the U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit, defending its exclusive jurisdiction over the U.S. commodity derivatives markets, including event contract markets.

Selig also published an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal in which he confirmed the CFTC would actively defend its exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets.

It’s a marked change from comments Selig made during his confirmation hearing for CFTC chair. During the nomination hearing in November in front of the U.S. Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry, Selig said several times he would will depend on the courts, ongoing litigation, and Congress regarding the CFTC’s role in regulating sports event contracts.

Shot at State Regulations

The current sport event contract markets are heavily regulated, Selig said during the panel discussion, and can exist in parallel with state gaming regulations, licensure, and rules. Certain states, he said, seem to be “getting a little ahead of themselves” when it comes to what they regulate.

“They’re able to offer a certain product, they’re able to serve a bunch of alcohol to people and let them go bet on sports. They’re able to use a bookie and be able to set the spread. Our products are very much heavily regulated and have stringent requirements. It’s a different regime. They can exist in parallel. We certainly don’t go into casinos to evaluate whether they’re offering illegal, over-the-counter swaps, but we make sure that we assert our authority where it makes sense. We see states getting a little ahead of themselves,” Selig said.

The CFTC will be moving forward by setting clear rules and regulations for the market, while also continuing to get involved in litigation involving prediction markets, Selig reported. The commission will be setting “clear rules and regulations” for the prediction markets, with “guidance in the very near future.”

“We’ll be setting very clear standards as to what can be self-certified in our markets and what cannot, and how to evaluate the different products that are offered in the space. We are also planning to go forward with an advanced notice of proposed rulemaking in the near future that will set the stage for more fulsome rulemaking,” he said.