Timberwolves vs Grizzlies Expert Picks & Props to Bet (Feb 2)

• Minnesota is a 7.5-point road favorite at Memphis
• Smart money is driving the total upward to 229.5
• Our analysis breaks down Minnesota at Memphis and provides expert betting advice

Fresh off a dominant 131-114 victory over Memphis on Saturday, the Minnesota Timberwolves look to replicate their success tonight and sweep a two-game set on the Grizzlies’ home court. Tip-off is set for 7:30 pm, ET (Peacock and FDSNX) in Memphis.

Bettors are keenly focused on whether the Grizzlies (+7.5) can respond as home underdogs.

The wagering landscape is heavily influenced by the availability of elite talent; Ja Morant (elbow) remains out, but the market also is monitoring the status of Minnesota All-Star Anthony Edwards, who is listed as questionable with back spasms. Edwards led Minnesota with a game-high 33 points Saturday.

We’ll analyze the betting value and provide expert advice for Minnesota at Memphis.

Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies Best Bets & Odds

The wagering trends paint a bleak picture for Memphis while supporting the narrative that Minnesota is poised to replicate its recent offensive explosion. The Grizzlies are 2-8 straight up (SU) over their last 10 games and failing to cover the spread in four of their past five outings. More concerning, the Grizzlies are a staggering 2-18 SU in their past 20 home games against teams over .500.

Conversely, the Timberwolves have found their rhythm when favored, going 3-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last four games laying points. Minnesota’s ability to score on the road has been a reliable angle for bettors recently. Specifically, the Over has hit in four of the Timberwolves’ last five games playing as a road favorite.

Given the defensive lapses Memphis showed in giving up 131 points to this same squad recently, and their struggles to compete with winning teams at home, the value lies with the visitors covering the number and the scoreboard lighting up.

Best Bet: Timberwolves -7.5 (-113 at DraftKings)

While laying 7.5 points on the road is significant, the disparity in current form is too wide to ignore. Memphis is 1-4 ATS in their last five, suggesting the market has not yet adjusted enough for their current slump. The Timberwolves’ trend of dominating road games as a favorite aligns perfectly with the Grizzlies’ inability to defend home court against top-tier teams.

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Total Prediction: Over 229.5 (-112 at FanDuel)

The total has opened at 227.5 and moved to 229.5, reflecting sharp money expecting points. The trends support this movement emphatically. With the Over hitting at an 80% clip in Minnesota’s recent road games as a favorite, combined with the 245 combined points these teams posted in their last meeting, a high-scoring affair is the most probable outcome.

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Top Player Prop: Jaren Jackson Jr. Over 19.5 Points (-117 at Caesars)

Jaren Jackson Jr.’s usage rate has spike significantly since Morant’s injury. The consensus line sits at 19.5 points, a number he must clear for Memphis to remain competitive tonight. Averaging 17.6 points at home this season, the sheer volume of shots likely to come his way in this depleted lineup makes this prop offer solid value. He will be the primary focal point of the offense.

Minnesota vs. Memphis Betting Trends

The following trends highlight the recent form of both squads and support the current market movement toward Minnesota and the Over. Note the distinct divergence in cover rates between the two franchises.

• Timberwolves: Minnesota is 3-1 ATS (.750) as a favorite over their last 4 games.
• Timberwolves: The Over has cashed in 4 of the last 5 (80%) games where the Timberwolves were road favorites.
• Grizzlies: Memphis is 1-4 ATS (.200) over their last 5 contests.
• Grizzlies: The Grizzlies are 2-18 SU (.100) at home against opponents with a winning record over their past 20 games.

Public Betting Splits

The NBA public betting data for Monday night’s clash at FedExForum reveals a heavily one-sided market, with the public emphatically backing the road favorite in all categories. The sentiment surrounding the Timberwolves’ recent dominance and the Grizzlies’ injury-riddled roster has created a unified front among bettors.

Spread Trends

There is little hesitation in laying the points with Minnesota. The Timberwolves are currently attracting 79.0% of the spread bets. More importantly, the money follows the volume, with 79.8% of the handle backing Minnesota to cover. This alignment between ticket count and money percentage suggests a strong consensus rather than a sharp-vs-public divide.

Moneyline Consensus

The confidence in Minnesota winning outright is overwhelming. The Timberwolves account for a staggering 91.6% of the moneyline tickets and 90.8% of the total money wagered. Conversely, the Grizzlies are seeing single-digit support, drawing just 8.4% of the bets and 9.2% of the stake, indicating the market sees little to no value in a potential Memphis upset.

Total Market Movement

Bettors are also anticipating fireworks, aligning perfectly with our prediction for a high-scoring affair. The Over is the clear choice, capturing 79.4% of the wagers and 79.5% of the money. Momentum is also building on this position; the data shows interest in the Over has surged recently, with the handle increasing significantly over the tracked time range.

Timberwolves vs Grizzlies Key Stats

Who has the edge tonight?

Analyzing the Mismatch

The most critical mismatch in this contest lies at the three-point line. The Timberwolves make nearly 14.3 triples per game. Conversely, the Grizzlies’ defense allows opponents to shoot 35.9% from beyond the arc on a high volume of attempts. Minnesota exploited this matchup their last meeting, making 18-of-37 three-pointers.

Timberwolves vs Grizzlies Injury Report

Timberwolves vs Grizzlies Odds

The betting markets clearly reflect the disparity in roster availability and recent form between these two franchises. Below are the current consensus odds for Monday night’s matchup.

Odds as of February 02, 2026, from DraftKings Sportsbook.

The oddsmakers have positioned the Timberwolves as significant road favorites. The moneyline lists Minnesota at -319, while the Grizzlies are underdogs at +254. A $10 wager on the Timberwolves to win outright would yield a total payout of $13.13, reflecting the low risk. Conversely, a $10 wager on the Grizzlies would return $35.40 if they pull off the upset.

Implied Win Probabilities (Vig-Free)

• Minnesota Timberwolves: 72.9%
• Memphis Grizzlies: 27.1%

Line Movement

The Timberwolves opened as -258 favorites, but sharp action and public consensus regarding Memphis’s injury woes have driven that price all the way to -319. The total opened at 227.5 and has been bid up two full points to 229.5. This upward trajectory aligns with the recent 131-114 scoreline between these teams, as bettors anticipate another defensively loose game script.