US Open Picks Today, Including Fritz vs Harris, Shelton vs Carreno-Busta (Aug 27)

• Wednesday’s US Open action includes eight American men and seven women in action
• Taylor Fritz meets big-serving Lloyd Harris in the afternoon session
• See my favorite US Open picks and predictions for Wednesday, August 27

Ten Americans are still alive in the men’s draw at the 2025 US Open, including the four-highest seeds: #4 Taylor Fritz, #6 Ben Shelton, and #14 Tommy Paul, and #17 Frances Tiafoe. On the women’s side, nine Americans have already advanced to the second round, while #3 Coco Gauff has yet to play.

Wednesday’s slate sees eight American men in action, headlined by Taylor Fritz vs Lloyd Harris, and Ben Shelton vs Pablo Carreno-Busta, which will be the nightcap on Louis Armstrong on Wednesday night.

In the table below, I have set out my two favorite US Open picks for Wednesday, along with the sportsbook currently offering the best price on those picks.

US Open Picks for Wednesday, August 27

Odds as of August 27. Click here to claim the bet365 bonus code.

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World #1 and defending-champion Jannik Sinner (+105) remains the outright favorite in the 2025 US Open odds, followed by #2 Carlos Alcaraz (+185). No other player is shorter than +1600.

Fritz vs Harris Prediction

I’m betting the over in Fritz vs Harris for one reason and one reason only: Lloyd Harris, at least his serve, is back in a big way.

The six-four Harris, once ranked as high as #31 in the world back in 2021, has seen his ranking plummet all the way to #353 in the world, largely due to injury. But the big-serving South African, still just 28 years old, has turned back the clock so to speak at the US Open. He blazed his way through qualifying, allowing just six break-point chances in three victories over #136 Dan Evans (6-4, 3-6, 7-5), #238 Fajing Sun (6-2, 6-2), and #170 Daniel Merida Aguilar (7-1, 7-6²). In the first round, he ran over clay-courter Sebastian Baez (6-3, 7-5, 6-4).

There were signs at Wimbledon that this improvement from Harris was coming; he upset #48 Zizou Bergs in the first round (7-6⁷, 6-7², 7-6⁵, 6-2) as a +175 underdog, and then took a set off world #15 Andrey Rublev (6-7¹, 6-4, 7-6⁵, 6-3). He held 38 of 43 service games at the All-England Club, which is an elite 88.4%.

Taylor Fritz made short work of Emilio Nava in the first round (7-5, 6-2, 6-3), a match where I also – unsuccessfully – targeted the over. Nava doesn’t remotely have the serve that Harris does, though. He’s held just 74% of his service games in his career. Harris is sitting at 82%, despite some less-than-stellar results since coming back from injury.

I am not expecting Harris to generate more than a couple break-point chances on the Fritz serve, which rates as the third-best on the entire tour. But I do expect a tiebreak or two, and I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if Harris can eke out a set. He’s listed at -120 to win a set and, if he does, over 33.5 is a virtual certainty. There are also multiple way to hit over 33.5 games if Fritz wins in straight sets, so the over at -130 represents much better value than betting Harris to win a set at -120. Over 33.5 is as short as -150 at other books, but still just -130 at Caesars.

Fritz and Harris have met twice in their careers, splitting a pair of hardcourt matches (one indoor and one outdoor). But both matches took place in 2020 and are ancient history at this point.

Shelton vs Carreno-Busta Prediction

Like Harris, world #136 Pablo Carreno-Busta is also still working his way back from a lengthy hiatus due to injury. He finished the 2022 season ranked #13 in the world and was #606 by the end of 2023. He’s looked more a little more like himself early this season when he captured back-to-back Challenger titles on hardcourt in Tenerife. But recent returns have been far from inspiring. He’s 3-3 during the current hardcourt swing, and the wins came over #114 Liam Draxl (2-6, 6-4, 6-4), #139 Yoshihito Nishioka (6-0, 6-3), and #361 Pablo Llamas Ruiz (7-69, 6-4, 6-2) in the first round in Flushing.

Carreno-Busta could scarcely have gotten an easier first-round draw; only two players in the field rank lower than Llamas Ruiz (#431 Martin Damm, and #435 Leandro Reidi, who, coincidentally, just beat Carreno-Busta in the Cincinnati qualifiers on August 5th. The only top-50 players Carreno-Busta has faced on hardcourts this month both wiped him off the court: #20 Arthur Fils (6-3, 6-4) and #39 Sebastian Baez (7-5, 6-2), who is only 2-7 on hardcourts all year and well below .500 for his career.

Ben Shelton outclassed 21-year-old qualifier Ignacio Buse in round one (6-3, 6-2, 6-4) and has been showcasing his groundstroke skills of late. Still sometimes thought of as purely a big server, Shelton has only needed a tiebreak in three of the last 14 sets that he’s won, and only one of the last eight.

Though he didn’t generate a single break, Carreno-Busta managed to win a set when the pair met at the Aussie Open earlier this year (6-3. 6-3. 6-7⁴, 6-4), their only previous meeting. The Carreno-Busta serve is vulnerable right now, and I expect Shelton to pounce on it early and often with his massive forehand, while also keeping the Spaniard at bay with his own serve, which rates as the fifth-best on tour.