Super Tuesday Odds – GOP Unleashes Dogs on Trump

It’s come to this, folks:

The old guard of the Republican Party, the party of Lincoln and Reagan, has pushed all its chips into the middle of the table, betting on a first-term Senator who has not yet won a state, is trailing in every poll heading into Super Tuesday, and has all the charm of a computer algorithm.

You up for slaying the Trump Monster, Marco Rubio? He’s in that cave right there. Go on in. Don’t worry about those flames coming out of his mouth. We’re right behind you.

Mainstream Republicans have grown tired of trying to not antagonize Trump. Weary of the business mogul’s bombast and dreading the debacle that the party might face in November with Trump at the top of the ticket, party cognoscenti have decided to take the choke chain off Rubio. Marco the Robot, they believe, has at least a puncher’s chance of stopping the Trump locomotive and then taking on Clinton in November.

In last night’s Republican debate, Trump had to dodge a kitchen sink of attacks. If it wasn’t taxes, it was illegal immigrants who might have worked on a Trump building 35 years ago. If it wasn’t Trump’s lack of detail on what will replace Obamacare, it was the sketchy college that he founded. Rubio attempted to do to Trump what Chris Christie had done to Rubio a month ago. Trump was even savaged for winning a personal family lottery and having a rich father.

It was surprising that the moderator didn’t use one of the commercial breaks to pat down Rubio for prison shanks.

For his part, Trump employed a modified version of the old Dean Smith four-corner keepaway offense, content to dial things back a notch or two. The real estate kingpin appears more than happy to run out the clock in states where he has large leads in the polls.

Ted Cruz pleaded – he always gives the impression that he’s pleading about something or other – to be a relevant part of the action, but his religion-in-politics message seems to be getting stale. Cruz needs to win his home state of Texas on Tuesday to make a salient case for his continued candidacy; but, in addition to leading almost everywhere else, Trump is even closing fast in the Lonestar State.

So it’s Rubio or bust for the Republican establishment, which never for an instant thought that it would find itself in this kind of rabbit hole. Will they get their wish and see Trump trumped on Tuesday? The odds aren’t in their favor …

Super Tuesday Props

Odds on how many different candidates will win a primary state on Super Tuesday (Republicans and Democrats, combined) :

Four: 10/11
Three: 7/4
Two: 15/2
Five or more: 17/1
 

Odds on which primary state will have the smallest margin of victory for Republican candidates:

Arkansas: 2/1
Oklahoma: 4/1
Texas: 4/1
 

Odds on which primary state will have the largest margin of victory (between first and second) for Republican candidates: 

Massachusetts: 4/5
Vermont: 2/1
Tennessee: 2/1
 

Odds on which primary state will have the smallest margin of victory for Democratic candidates: 

Massachusetts: 2/7
Oklahoma: 12/1
Tennessee: 13/1
 

Odds on which primary state will have the largest margin of victory for Democratic candidates: 

Vermont: 2/25
Georgia: 4/1
Virginia: 10/1

Over/under on how many states Donald Trump will win on Super Tuesday (of the 11 that are choosing a Republican candidate): o/u 9.5

Over/under on how many primary states Marco Rubio will win on Super Tuesday: o/u 0.5

Over/under on how many primary states Ted Cruz will win on Super Tuesday: o/u 1.5

Over/under on how many states/territories Hillary Clinton will win on Super Tuesday (of the 12 that are choosing a Democratic candidate): o/u 10.5

Super Tuesday Republican point spread: [595 delegates at stake]

Donald Trump: -390

Super Tuesday Democratic point spread: [1,004 delegates at stake]

Hillary Clinton: -750

Odds on the next Republican candidate to drop out: 

Ben Carson: 2/1
Ted Cruz: 3/1
John Kasich: 3/1
Marco Rubio: 13/2
Donald Trump: 25/1

Odds that another candidate will enter the race during the month of March:

Republican: 14/1
Democrat: 15/1

Over/under on when Bernie Sanders will drop out of the race for the Democratic nomination: March 9

Odds that the Republican candidate who wins the most delegates on Super Tuesday will win the party’s nomination: 1/12

Odds on who Donald Trump will insult the most on Super Tuesday:

Hillary Clinton: 2/5
The Media: 8/1
Marco Rubio: 8/1
Ted Cruz: 12/1
Bill Clinton: 40/1
Bernie Sanders: 175/1
FIELD: 100/1

Over/under on how many congressmen will endorse Trump before Wednesday, March 3 (in addition to Duncan Hunter (Calif.) and Chris Collins (N.Y.)): o/u 2.5

Odds on who Trump will name as his running mate if he wins the Republican nomination:

Rick Scott: 10/1
Nikki Haley: 12/1
Marco Rubio: 12/1
Brian Sandoval: 12/1
Carly Fiorina: 17/1
Oprah Winfrey: 30/1
Ted Cruz: 40/1
John Kasich: 40/1
Joe Scarborough: 40/1
Rudy Giuliani: 75/1
Sarah Palin: 250/1
Ben Carson: 275/1
Jeb Bush: 450/1
Field Bet (any politician): 2/5
Field Bet (any businessperson): 12/1
Field Bet (any entertainer): 350/1
Field Bet (any sporting figure): 1000/1

Odds on who Hillary Clinton will name as her running mate if she wins the Democratic nomination: 

Julian Castro: 8/1
Brian Schweitzer: 12/1
Cory Booker: 15/1
Mark Warner: 15/1
Joaquin Castro: 20/1
Tim Kaine: 25/1
Martin O’Malley: 25/1
Deval Patrick: 25/1
Terry McAuliffe: 40/1
John Kasich: 65/1
Joe Biden: 200/1
Bernie Sanders: 200/1
Bill Clinton: 250/1
FIELD: 5/1
Castro Field Bet (Julian or Joaquin): 6/1

(Photo credit: Gage Skidmore [CC BY-SA 3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons)