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Wimbledon Predictions, Picks & Best Bets Today (July 1)
By Sascha Paruk in Tennis
Published:
- I’m backing two favorites to cover big spreads on Wednesday
- Medvedev vs Merida is a mismatch that’s apt to end early
- See my top Wimbledon predictions and picks for July 1
The stage is set for a thrilling day of men’s singles action at the All England Club on Wednesday, July 1. Opening serves for this Round of 64 slate begin at 6:00 am ET, with the day’s final scheduled matchup getting underway around 11:20 am ET as Novak Djokovic faces Stefanos Tsitsipas.
Top-tier contenders Jannik Sinner, Daniil Medvedev and Tommy Paul all step onto the grass as substantial favorites, while Djokovic closes the slate as overwhelming chalk in the marquee match. I am eschewing the massive moneyline juice and hunting for value in the derivative markets instead.
The odds table below summarizes my top Wimbledon picks for July 1. Under the table, you will find my in-depth analysis for each best bet. At the tail-end of the article, see the full odds (ML, spread, total) for every men’s singles match on Wednesday.
Wimbledon Best Bets Today: July 1 Men’s Singles Picks
The common thread is avoiding inflated favorite moneylines and targeting how these matches are most likely to be won. Sinner and Paul both have the surface tools to create repeated break chances and win by margin, while Medvedev’s matchup points more toward a short, controlled straight-set result than a drawn-out total.
After a clean sweep on Tuesday, my Wimbledon picks are now 4-2 SU and +1.51 units on one-unit wagers.
Jannik Sinner vs Nuno Borges Prediction: Sinner -8.5 Games (+122 / 45¢ at Kalshi)
I am backing Sinner to cover the massive 8.5-game spread. The Tennis Abstract profiles show the massive grass-court gap between the players: Sinner owns a 2,319.8 overall Elo and a 2,263.2 grass Elo, both No. 1 in the world, while Borges sits at 1,769.0 overall and 1,714.1 on grass. That is a massive 549.1-point gElo gap. The grass at Wimbledon rewards first-strike shotmaking, clean returning, and the ability to turn neutral balls into immediate pressure. No one in the world does those things better than Sinner, save the injured Carlos Alcaraz on his best days.
The recent match logs make that gap feel even more pronouced. Sinner just survived a five-set Wimbledon opener against Miomir Kecmanovic, but his broader grass résumé is still dominant: during last year’s Wimbledon title run, he beat Luca Nardi, Aleksandar Vukic, Pedro Martinez, Ben Shelton and Novak Djokovic without dropping a set, then took out Carlos Alcaraz in four sets in the final. That is not just winning; that is repeatedly creating separation against elite and mid-tier opponents alike.
He also handled Cameron Norrie 6-3, 6-3 in his Hurlingham grass tune-up, providing some evidence that his timing and first-strike patterns are already calibrated for the surface.
Borges deserves credit for his straight-sets win over Tristan Boyer last time out, and his grass swing included decent wins over Adrian Mannarino, Jan-Lennard Struff, and Luciano Darderi in Mallorca. But he showed his grass-court ceiling in losses to Marin Cilic and Felix Auger-Aliassime in three sets, then was routed 6-1, 6-2 by Ethan Quinn in Mallorca.
Against Sinner’s return pressure, those service-game dips can become a spread-covering avalanche quickly.
That Elo edge pairs with the matchup dynamics. Sinner enters with elite return metrics on grass, breaking opponents in an absurd 32.4% of his return games over the last 12 months. Borges struggles with upper-echelon pace and lacks the defensive footwork to survive Sinner’s heavy combinations from the baseline. Sinner lands pinpoint strikes that essentially serve as ground-and-pound, never allowing his opponents to breathe or recover their positioning.
At +110 odds on Sinner -8.5 games, the market is asking for a lopsided win rather than simply a victory, but the players’ grass-court history and underlying stats both justify laying the big handicap.
Daniil Medvedev vs Daniel Merida Prediction: Under 29.5 Games (-104 / 51¢ at Kalshi)
Taking under 28.5 games is my top situational angle for this mismatch. Medvedev dictates the pace beautifully on grass, using his wingspan and deep return position to keep opponents out of striking range. The Elo gap backs up the eye test: Medvedev is rated 1,977.4 overall and 1,962.3 on grass, compared with Merida’s 1,743.6 overall and 1,675.5 gElo. That is a 286.8-point grass-court advantage for Medvedev, which points toward a match where the underdog struggles to consistently hold serve.
The recent results strengthen the under case. Medvedev opened Wimbledon by beating Marin Cilic 6-1, 6-2, 6-4, a 25-game straight-set win that would go under this number with room to spare. His Halle wins over Tomas Martin Etcheverry (6-3, 6-4) and Terence Atmane (6-4, 6-4) also show how often his wins on this surface come through clean service holds and one or two decisive return-game bursts.
Even at Hertogenbosch, his wins over Cilic (6-2, 3-6, 6-1) and Thijmen Loof/Boogaard (6-3, 4-6, 7-6) showed the same dynamic: when Medvedev controls first-strike patterns, sets can get away from opponents quickly.
Merida’s recent results are far less convincing. His Wimbledon win over Camilo Ugo Carabelli came via retirement after a fragmented four-set scoreline, and his only listed grass qualifier before that was a 6-3, 6-2 loss to Martin Damm Jr. Against ATP-level power, the results are also blunt: he lost 6-3, 6-3, 6-4 to Ben Shelton at Roland Garros, 6-4, 6-2 to Stefanos Tsitsipas in Madrid, 6-3, 6-4 to Alex Michelsen at Indian Wells and 6-0, 6-1 to Marcos Giron in Phoenix.
That profile makes it difficult to project enough Merida holds to push this past 29.5 unless Medvedev’s level drops materially.
Medvedev holds serve at an 88.2% clip on this surface, and Merida simply does not have the offensive arsenal to mount a sustained attack; his win probability against top-20 talent sits at a dismal 3.5%.
Expect Medvedev to smother Merida early, forcing a quick straight-set match. A scoreline in the 6-2, 6-3, 6-2 range keeps this well under the 29.5-game threshold.
At traditional sportsbooks, you would have to lay -110 odds on under 28.5. This Kalshi price is getting me an extra game at lower juice. Medvedev’s recent grass wins and nearly 300-point gElo edge make the under a mathematically sound wager at those odds.
Tommy Paul vs Soonwoo Kwon Prediction: Paul -6.5 Games (-107 at Caesars)
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I am laying 6.5 games with Tommy Paul. The first-round results make this handicap much easier to stomach: Paul opened Wimbledon by demolishing Alexandre Muller 6-1, 6-2, 6-1, a 12-game margin that would have cleared this spread before the third set.
That result fits his broader grass profile. In London, Paul beat Zachary Svajda 7-5, 6-3, Botic Van de Zandschulp 7-6, 6-3, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 6-3, 7-6, and Ugo Humbert 6-3, 6-3 before a tight three-set loss to Francisco Cerundolo. He is not just winning on grass; he is consistently creating enough separation to make big spreads very live.
Kwon deserves credit for his 6-4, 6-3, 6-3 win over Martin Landaluce on Monday. He looked comfortable enough on the surface to punish a weaker opponent. The issue is opponent quality. Before that, Kwon had to come through qualifying against Nicolas Sanchez Izquierdo, Arthur Gea, and Alejandro Moro Canas, and his Nottingham grass swing included straight-set losses to Otto Virtanen (6-2, 7-5) and Anton Matusevich (6-3, 6-4).
That is a major step down from facing a top-tier ATP athlete who can pressure both first and second serves.
The Elo splits give Paul a clear surface-adjusted edge, too. Paul is rated 1,948.5 overall and 1,881.2 on grass, while Kwon checks in at 1,744.4 overall and 1,715.6 gElo. That creates a 165.6-point grass Elo advantage for Paul and a 204.1-point overall Elo gap. Kwon’s hard-court Elo has dipped to 1,589.0 and his clay Elo is only 1,625.3, so there is not an obvious alternate-surface profile suggesting he is being underrated here; the grass number is the best of the three, and Paul still clears it comfortably.
The historical context also favors Paul by margin. Last summer, Paul made a deep Wimbledon run with straight-set wins over Alexander Bublik and Roberto Bautista Agut before losing to Carlos Alcaraz, and he also stacked grass wins in London over Sebastian Baez, Alejandro Tabilo, Jack Draper, Sebastian Korda, and Lorenzo Musetti.
Kwon’s comparable main-tour grass résumé is much thinner, including a 2024 Wimbledon loss to Holger Rune by a 6-1, 6-4, 6-4 scoreline. When Kwon has faced opponents with Paul-level pace and court coverage, the scoreboard has tended to move quickly against him.
Kwon thrives when given time to set up his forehand. Paul’s ability to cut off angles and finish points can turn neutral rallies into immediate pressure. Finding Paul -6.5 at -107 gives me a playable spread price at Caesars. This same line is trading at 58 cents (-137) at Kalshi.
Wimbledon Odds for July 1
Here is a look at the current betting lines for today’s opening Round of 64 slate at the All England Club. With heavy favorites scattered across the board, several of the sport’s biggest names are laying massive odds to advance.
Looking for the tournament outrights? Check out SBD’s odds to win Wimbledon.
Enjoying our betting coverage? Want more picks, predictions, and analysis from our proven experts? Make SBD a preferred source in your Google searches!
Sascha Paruk
Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
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