Sportsbooks Offering Russell Wilson at 25-1 Odds to Win NFL MVP, Drew Brees at 14-1

• Russell Wilson finished 18th in passing yards last season
• Drew Brees’ passing numbers have dipped the last two season as the Saints have thrown the ball less
• But Brees is the better value between the two at +1400 to win NFL MVP

Those who shop for the best betting lines might have noticed a small anomaly in the NFL MVP odds. Russell Wilson and Drew Brees are offering a much higher payout in one sportsbook compared to anywhere else.

Is there value betting either player to win NFL MVP in the 2019-20 season?

2019-20 NFL MVP Odds

*Odds taken 7/19/19

Wilson Will Have To Do It On His Own

One of the best ways to win the MVP award is to have a great season on a team that’s bereft of Pro Bowlers. We see that frequently with Tom Brady as he’s constantly elevating a less-than-star-studded cast.

Wilson is in that position and, if the Seahawks are to succeed in 2019, it’s going to be because of him. We know that their running game is reliable, the offensive line is typically weak, and they have virtually nobody that’s taken seriously at wide receiver.

The question is: can he put up the necessary numbers?

Wilson had 3,448 passing yards last season with 35 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He added another 376 rushing yards. The challenge is that those passing yards ranked just 18th in the NFL and, while his 35 touchdowns were third-best, they were still 15 off the pace.

I just don’t see him being able to post the type of monster numbers necessary for him to get in the running. Even though Wilson will do so much for them, this is a team that still needs to run the ball and play defense to win.

Is There Value With Brees?

Brees is an interesting player to consider because he’s no longer than 10/1 at most sportsbooks but he’s at 14/1 in one sportsbook. The 40-year-old is at the helm of what is one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL, so he should get plenty of love if he puts up a strong season.

The challenge is that Brees has “fallen off” over the last two seasons as the offense has shifted to being more reliant on the ground game. Once that’s working, then they come in with Brees and the passing game, and they pick apart the defenses.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0xDpY7xv5s

Brees averaged 5140 passing yards from 2011-2016 with 38.3 touchdowns per season. He’s tapered off a bit in the last two seasons, average 4163 passing yards with 27.5 touchdowns. You can clearly see the change in passing attempts as he averaged 656 per year from 2011-16. He had 536 in 2017 and 489 last year.

What’s The Best Bet?

While the odds might be tantalizing, I just don’t see the value here with either player. I’d sooner take a shot with Brees as the signal-caller of a lethal offense is always likely to get some votes. He’s in the better position to approach 5000 yards and 40 touchdowns, so while I don’t think he gets there, he’s the better bet of the two players here.