UNC vs Wake Forest Prediction and Odds: Unbeaten UNC Getting 3 Points on the Road

• North Carolina (2-0) and Wake Forest (2-0) face off Friday night (Sep. 13th) on ESPN
• Mack Brown’s Tar Heels have been impressive to start the year with quality wins over South Carolina & Miami
• Despite the solid start, North Carolina is currently listed as a 3-point underdog

The Tar Heels are dancing, and for good reason, after an awesome start to the season and the second coming of the Mack Brown era.

If you’re wondering how much fun it is to be a Tar Heel, watch this. #CarolinaFootball 🏈 #BeTheOne pic.twitter.com/NITTJLbIuf

— Carolina Football (@UNCFootball) September 1, 2019

With wins over South Carolina and Miami to kick off the year, things are looking up for North Carolina football. Despite the success, the Tar Heels are three-point dogs this week when they travel to Wake Forest to take on the Demon Deacons.

North Carolina vs Wake Forest Odds

*Odds taken 9/11

The UNC vs Wake Forest odds page paints a picture that perhaps the Tar Heels shouldn’t be underdogs at all in this match up. Here’s the case why you should be taking a close look at UNC when placing your bets for Week 3.

UNC More Efficient on Offense

ESPN tracks team efficiency in all aspects of the game and it helps make sense of a pretty complicated landscape. In the NFL, where the level of competition is much closer (unless you’re playing the Miami Dolphins), it’s easier to find common ground. With college games varying greatly in degree of difficulty, ESPN weighs the point contributions of each unit to the teams’ scoring margin on a per-play basis, all while adjusting the scale based on strength of schedule.

Victory Vibes Part 2#CarolinaFootball 🏈 #BeTheOne pic.twitter.com/NrZyAT84qi

— Carolina Football (@UNCFootball) September 10, 2019

With North Carolina upending two quality opponents to start the year, they rank 34th in team efficiency. Wake Forest, which edged Utah State at home (38-35) and beat up on a bad Rice team on the road (41-21),  currently sits 51st.

On offense, UNC sits 32nd, six spots higher than this week’s opponent. Their strength on offense has come from incredibly efficient play at the QB position from true freshman Sam Howell. He has 519 passing yards, 4 touchdowns, and no interceptions.

The two-headed monster in the backfield of Javonte Williams and Michael Carter has also helped, combining for 285 yards and a score on only 55 carries.

Tar Heels Also Have Better Defense

UNC has only allowed 45 points this season, an impressive number considering their level of competition. They’ve played the 14th-toughest schedule in college football through two weeks.

Wake Forest, on the other hand, has allowed 56 points playing Utah State and Rice, the 66th-toughest schedule.

.@CoachMackBrown breaks down the Miami game in this week’s “Monday with Mack” brought to you by Coke. Share a Coke and Go Tar Heels!#CarolinaFootball 🏈 #BeTheOne pic.twitter.com/7BnJhMXnad

— Carolina Football (@UNCFootball) September 9, 2019

QB Jamie Newman has been great for Wake Forest, but you need to consider those cupcake defenses he’s faced.

Focusing specifically on the defensive side of the football, that’s where the numbers begin to look troubling. Giving up 28 points per game to soft opponents doesn’t bode well with the red-hot Tar Heels coming to town. The Demon Deacons have allowed 5.5 more points per game, 79 more total yards, and 110 more passing yards.

Consider the UNC Moneyline

There’s a good chance Mack Brown’s second stint in Carolina blue starts 3-0. The ESPN power index gives the Tar Heels a 53% chance of winning the game. In other words, you have a team getting +130 when the advanced metrics say they’re the stronger team.

If you want to stay conservative, take UNC +3. If you’re feeling bold, like myself, take the underdogs on the moneyline.

Pick: North Carolina moneyline (+130)