#6-Ranked Georgia a +265 Longshot to Make College Football Playoff

• The Georgia Bulldogs are ranked No. 6 in the initial College Football Playoff poll
• Georgia should rise as games like LSU-Alabama, Penn State-Ohio State force the loser to drop
• The math suggests it’s better to bet the Bulldogs moneylines on their five remaining games

There were a number of surprises when the initial College Football Playoff ranking was released. The Georgia Bulldogs were slotted at No. 6 and are now a +265 longshot according to the four-team playoff odds.

Is there value betting them to get in, though, or is there a bettor way to wager on the Dawgs?

Georgia Bulldogs College Football Playoff Odds

Odds taken Nov. 5th

Bulldogs Have A Tricky Upcoming Schedule

The Bulldogs are No. 6 in the rankings right now and, to get higher, they’ll first have to clean out their regular-season schedule. I’m expecting them to finish the regular season with four more wins but their remaining opponents are a bit tricky.

It’ll start with Missouri on Saturday, who have been ranked in the Top 25 at times this season but are coming off of back-to-back losses to Vanderbilt and Kentucky. If they can’t beat those teams, they’re not going to Athens and upsetting the Bulldogs as a 17-point underdog.

After that, Georgia has to travel to No. 11 Auburn, which has been a formidable opponent this season. Then they’ll come home and play Texas A&M and Georgia Tech. The Aggies are 6-3 and could put forth a challenge but the Bulldogs will be a big favorite. As for the Yellow Jackets, nobody is expecting an upset here.

Overall, the Bulldogs should finish the year 4-0 but it won’t be easy – especially with that road game at Auburn.

The SEC Championship Game Looms Large

The biggest issue for the Bulldogs here is that, even if they go 4-0 down the stretch, they will have to also win the SEC Championship Game to make the field. That means they’ll have to face either Alabama or LSU, one of which will probably be the No. 1 team in the country at that point.

Either way, Georgia will be a dog in that game.

The Math Doesn’t Really Add Up

I actually don’t mind a bet on Georgia to make the College Football Playoff, but the math doesn’t seem to add up here. We have some lookahead lines that show Georgia will be favored by about nine or 10 at Auburn, and by about 13 at home to Texas A&M. This week, they’re laying 17.

So if this week’s moneyline is at -800 and then the Auburn game is about -380 and the Texas A&M game is about -550, a three-game parlay of those brings your odds to about -150 – roughly speaking.

In the SEC Championship Game, you’d have to think that they’ll be about a touchdown underdog and in the +200 neighborhood on the moneyline. That means if you bet these individually, you’re looking at about a +400 payout and that doesn’t even include the Georgia Tech game.

Of course, these are rough estimates and there are scenarios where, say, injuries come into play and Georgia could be favored in the SEC Championship Game. Or maybe so many other CFP contenders lose that a two-loss Georgia team makes it. Playing the moneyline parlays is not a foolproof alternative to the make/miss CFP prop.

At the same time, I see better value in parlaying the moneylines: Georgia has to go 5-0 the rest of the way, based on history. No two-loss team has ever made the College Football Playoff.

That being the case, betting the moneylines for each of their games and rolling it over would payout more than the +265 for this prop.