Astros World Series Odds Fall to +1233; Trail Athletics by 4.5 Games

• More than one quarter of the way into the 2020 season, the Houston Astros sit at 7-9
• The defending AL champions have seen their World Series odds almost double in the last eight weeks
• Do the Astros still have a chance to win their second championship in four seasons?

Despite Gerrit Cole signing a big-money contract with the New York Yankees, it wasn’t supposed to be this way for the Houston Astros.

With three straight American League West titles and a whopping 25 postseason wins over the last three years, this team was built to go deep into the playoffs. But then the pandemic struck, the season was reduced to 60 games, ace Justin Verlander got injured, and the team stumbled out of the gate.

Now the Astros can’t seem to stop other teams from scoring, giving up 4.9 runs per game (tied with Detroit for third-worst in the AL). As a result, their 2020 World Series odds have plummeted from an average of +767 on June 14 to +1233 now.

DraftKings has Houston at +1400, behind the AL West-leading Oakland Athletics.

2020 World Series Champion Odds

Odds taken August 11th.

Houston Has a Problem

The idea of playing deep into the postseason is dependent on actually making the playoffs in the first place. As of right now, the sub-.500 Astros trail the  Athletics by 4.5 games as of Tuesday, but with 53% of MLB teams making the postseason this year under the new format, finishing second in the West would do just fine. (Eight teams in each league qualify: the top-two teams in each division plus the two teams with the next-best win/loss records .)

Still, one of the two crucial facets of the game that Houston depends on – defense – has been missing so far.

A Rotational Mess

Lance McCullers Jr. may have pitched seven shutout innings in leading the Astros to a 6-4 win over the San Francisco Giants on Monday to snap a five-game losing streak, but no one is under the delusion that Houston’s starting rotation is anywhere close to where it was last year.

Lance McCullers Jr (@lmccullers43) after his terrific outing: “It was just up to me not to blow it again..We needed a win tonight.” pic.twitter.com/V9l6aP5tIO

— Mark Berman (@MarkBerman_) August 11, 2020

Part of that is Verlander being on the injured list with a forearm strain. But another part is the youthful mix; Cristian Javier and Framber Valdez are part of the rotation, while other inexperienced pitchers such as Josh James and Brandon Bielak have also made starts.

Brandon Bielak notched his first career strikeout to complete a 1-2-3 inning in his Major League debut. pic.twitter.com/FoUsKofqe3

— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) July 28, 2020

It’s not just the starting rotation giving manager Dusty Baker fits. The bullpen has had nine pitchers make their MLB debuts this season, with closer Roberto Osuna likely undergoing Tommy John surgery, which will put him out for the year.

I asked Dusty Baker if he thinks Roberto Osuna could return this season. He doesn’t sound optimistic pic.twitter.com/faXDcyWq8Z

— Adam Spolane (@AdamSpolane) August 10, 2020

The results have been somewhat predictable. The Astros currently have an earned-run average of 4.19, just below the MLB average of 4.21, and way off the 3.66 they posted last year when they had the third-best mark in MLB.

Astros Go on the Offensive

Luckily for the Astros, and any World Series hopes they may be harboring, the offense is still as explosive as ever.

Their 82 runs scored are tied for most in the AL with the Los Angeles Angels, having played one fewer game. Another cause for optimism is that the offense has been so productive despite some of its biggest names getting off to slow starts.

https://twitter.com/AsteriskTour/status/1293039031132053504?s=20

George Springer has hit .182, Jose Altuve has hit .183, while Alex Bregman has connected at a .224 clip. Those are all well behind their career marks of .269, .313, and .284, respectively. While there will be critics who will look at those sub-par averages and put it down to the Astros’ cheating tactics from seasons past, remember there are a number of other stars not producing this year, including the likes of Cody Bellinger and Christian Yelich.

Alex Bregman coming in CLUTCH 🔥@astros take the lead in the 8th! pic.twitter.com/ImNdCEtBYk

— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) August 7, 2020

The slumping stars clearly aren’t impacting the Astros’ ability to produce runs, and just think how much more explosive Houston might be when the big bats get back in their groove.

If the Astros can swing an impactful trade to bolster their rotation, Houston still represents a good bet at +1400 to make a World Series run.