Aussie Rules Finals Series Semifinals Odds & Picks: Richmond vs St Kilda & Geelong vs Collingwood

• Richmond Tigers, Geelong Cats favored in crucial AFL Semifinal matchups
• Following qualification round victory over the Tigers, the Brisbane Lions have emerged as favorites to claim their first premiership title in 17 years
• We’ve got you covered with all the odds and trends ahead of this weekend’s Aussie Rules Football Finals Series contests

The second week of the AFL Final Series gets underway this weekend with a pair of semifinal matchups. On Friday morning, the defending champion Richmond Tigers look to clinch a berth in the Preliminary Finals for a fourth straight year as they take on the surprising St. Kilda Saints as lofty 20.5-point favorites. Saturday’s action has the Geelong Cats hosting the Collingwood Magpies as just 6.5-point chalk.

Here’s a look at this week’s semifinal matchups, as well as where things stand in the AFL Premiership odds, as the second round of the Final Series kicks off.

Aussie Rules Finals Series Semifinal Odds

Odds taken Oct 8 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Tigers, Cats Dip on Premiership Odds Following Qualification Round Losses

After suffering defeats in last week’s qualification round, the Tigers and Cats have lost ground in the AFL Premiership odds. Fresh off of last week’s 69-54 victory over Richmond, the Brisbane Lions look towards next week’s Preliminary Finals as +200 favorites to claim their first title since 2003, followed by the Port Adelaide Power, who have vaulted to +260 second favorites.

I asked @Simon_tblack whether or not his @brisbanelions could win the flag having finally gotten the "grizzly bear" off their back with a win against the Tigers.

So what do they need to do win the flag?

FULL EPISODE https://t.co/AD7NhxSzcb thanks to @NationalMake pic.twitter.com/VwhKylqWHI

— Corey McKernan (@CoreyMcKernan) October 8, 2020

Pegged as +195 favorites to successfully defend their title entering the postseason, the Tigers now sit third at +300. With last week’s 58-42 loss to the Power, the Cats have now dropped two of three, and have fallen off the pace in the AFL futures as a +600 bet. Both Collingwood and St. Kilda entered the postseason at the bottom of the Premiership futures, and that is where they remain, with the Magpies listed as a +850 bet, while the upstart St. Kilda Saints follow as distant +1700 longshots.

AFL Premiership Odds

Saints Aim to Continue Cinderella Run

The St. Kilda Saints continued to silence the naysayers last week, holding on to claim a 67-64 win over the Western Bulldogs, and paying out as 4.5-point underdogs. Overall, the Saints have now won three of their past four matches, leveraging a stingy defense that has surrendered an average of just 51.7 points per match over their past seven outings.

https://twitter.com/j_bboon/status/1312002573453287425?s=20

While Friday morning’s clash at Metricon Stadium appears to be a mismatch on paper, it is unwise to overlook St. Kilda’s performance in their most recent clash with Richmond earlier this season, when they handed the champions a crushing 93-67 defeat. That loss marked the start of a shaky 4-4-0 win-loss-draw run for the Tigers that took them out of the race for the top of the AFL ladder.

Richmond enjoyed a steady run down the stretch, closing out their schedule with six straight victories, all by wide double-digit margins. But last week’s lackluster performance in their loss to Brisbane raises concerns about their ability to repeat as champions. Covering a 20.5-point spread against the Saints represents a massive task. However, the Tigers have enjoyed the comfort of their temporary home at the Metricon Stadium. The club has posted wins in all six matches they have hosted there, with last month’s 57-31 win over Geelong marking their narrowest win.

Best Bets: Richmond Tigers -20.5 (-110); UNDER 121.5 (-112)

Cats Favored to End Losing Streak vs Magpies

The Geelong Cats hope to rediscover the offensive touch that contributed to their climb into the top four on the AFL ladder as they battle the Collingwood Magpies on Saturday morning at the Gabba. The Cats regularly ran up the score during an impressive eight-match win streak that started in late July, topping 90 points in four of those contests. However, the club has struggled to put points on the board while losing two of their past three, capped by last week’s 58-42 loss to Port Adelaide.

Overall, Geelong have mustered just 47.33 points per match over their past three outings, and have also struggled to generate offense in recent dates with Collingwood, averaging just 43 points per match in back-to-back losses to the Magpies, both by double-digit margins. Those trends don’t bode well for the Cats against a confident Magpies squad that marches into the semifinals after posting an impressive 76-75 win over the West Coast Eagles a week ago. In addition to keeping their Premiership hopes alive, last week’s win marks an impressive rebound for the Magpies following a 61-45 loss to Port Adelaide three weeks ago.

But while Collingwood have owned the Cats in recent meetings, they must still overcome their somewhat shaky record against top-flight opponents this season, including embarrassing losses to the Lions, Tigers, and Melbourne Demons. However, with Geelong struggling to score points, plenty of value exits in Collingwood’s +126 odds to eke out the win, and advance to the Preliminary Finals for a third straight year.

Best Bets: Collingwood Magpies to win (+126); UNDER 110.5 (-112)