2020 NFL Thanksgiving Picks Against the Spread

• The 2020 NFL season continues Thursday, November 26th with three Thanksgiving Day games
• Detroit averages just 18.8 points in games without Kenny Golladay this season
• Read below for analysis on the Thanksgiving NFL slate and our favorite ATS picks

Aside from Christmas Day, it’s hard to argue that the Thursday of the Thanksgiving Weekend isn’t the best day of the year.

Back-to-back-to-back NFL games, kicking off at 12:30 pm EST, with copious amounts of food to enjoy. Seriously, what could possibly be better?

This year’s slate features three intriguing contests, starting with the Houston Texans visiting the Detroit Lions.

NFL Thanksgiving ATS Picks

Odds taken Nov. 24th at DraftKings. 

Pick #1: Texans Maul Lions

Houston opened up as a 2-point road favorite, but that number has moved to -3 and could climb even higher prior to kickoff.

Detroit has been ravaged by injuries to key players on both sides of the ball, and could possibly be without both number one wideout Kenny Golladay, and starting running back D’Andre Swift.

#Lions WR Kenny Golladay (hip) remained a non-participant in today's walkthrough, per the injury report, but RB D'Andre Swift returned on a limited basis — a sign he's progressing through the concussion protocol.

— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) November 24, 2020

Golladay, who hasn’t played since Week 8 due to a hip injury, didn’t practice again on Tuesday, putting his status in serious doubt. The Lions are 1-4 without him in the lineup this season, and have averaged just 18.8 points in those contests.

Swift, on the other hand, is recovering from a concussion suffered in Week 10, and while he may play, it’s certainly no lock. Without their prized rookie running back and Golladay last week, Detroit accumulated just 185 total yards and was shutout 20-0 in Carolina.

If you’re reading this, congratulations. You scored as many points as the Detroit Lions did today.

— Detroit Free Press (@freep) November 22, 2020

To make matters worse, top-3 pick Jeff Okudah hasn’t practiced all week, and his potential absence from the secondary versus the Texans would be huge. Houston is coming off its most complete game of the season, racking up 400 yards of offense against New England.

DESHAUN WATSON GROWN MAN TD 😤

(via @thecheckdown) pic.twitter.com/6HBoQ8DDMw

— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) November 22, 2020

Deshaun Watson threw for 344 yards and two scores, while rushing for another. Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks each cleared 80 yards versus a very good Pats secondary, and should run circles around the Lions 30th ranked coverage unit.

Pick #2: Washington Covers vs Cowboys

Next up, is an NFC East clash between the Washington Football Team and the Dallas Cowboys. Both teams are coming in off victories, and the winner of this game will temporarily move into first place in the division. Dallas is currently a 3-point favorite, and will be looking to build off a huge upset win over Minnesota.

RT if you’re celebrating this #CowboysWin #DALvsMIN | #DallasCowboys | @WinStarWorld pic.twitter.com/ofvlUXy29g

— Dallas Cowboys (@dallascowboys) November 23, 2020

A big reason for the Cowboys’ success last week was their ability to keep Andy Dalton clean. The Red Riffle spent most of the afternoon in a clean pocket, racking up 203 yards and three scores. Unfortunately, that isn’t likely to be the case against Washington.

Chase Young LIT UP Joe Burrow to keep him out of the end zone 😲

(via @WashingtonNFL)pic.twitter.com/OmBFkqWGHW

— ESPN (@espn) November 22, 2020

The Football Team ranks fifth in sack rate, seventh in QB hit rate, and seventh in pass rush productivity, according to Pro Football Focus. They boast the league’s fourth-best coverage unit and have allowed the fourth-fewest receptions of 20 or more yards.

Meanwhile, Dallas continues to struggle on defense and gave up three more passing TD to Minnesota on Sunday. They’ve now allowed 23 passing touchdowns this season and have only picked off three throws. Their run defense hasn’t fared much better, as they’re permitting 4.74 yards per carry and 145.3 rushing yards per contest.

Pick #3: Steelers Over Ravens

Finally, we have an AFC slugfest as the Baltimore Ravens visit the undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh opened up as a 3.5-point favorite, but that number has jumped to -5 and even -5.5 at some online sportsbooks.

Ravens now have had five players and four staffers test positive for COVID this week, sources tell ESPN.

Thursday night’s game vs. the Steelers still is on, as scheduled, but one source warned that further positives could mean postponing it.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) November 24, 2020

That’s because five players won’t play after testing positive for COVID, including running backs Mark Ingram, J.K. Dobbins, and linebacker Pernell McPhee.

Baltimore is already down defensive linemen Calais Campbell and Brandon Williams due to injury, and could be without starting safety Jimmy Smith as well. Smith hasn’t practiced all week, which spells trouble against a Steeler offense that has passed an average of 43 times over the last five weeks.

Ten touchdowns. Ten games. @ChaseClaypool is the rookie of the year and it’s not up for debate pic.twitter.com/G13pv2e9FW

— Barstool Irish (@BarstoolIrish) November 22, 2020

The Ravens are also banged up on the offensive line, which is not a recipe for success against the league’s top defense. Baltimore lost stud tackle, Ronnie Stanley, for the season, while starting guard Tyre Phillips has been out since Week 8, and starting center Matt Skura was benched following the loss to New England.

Ryan Clark: “The Ravens offense is slow … and they’re also kind of soft. This Baltimore team ain’t the 2019 Baltimore Ravens. This Baltimore team doesn’t walk into stadiums and scare people.”

pic.twitter.com/NJpg9nkTMe

— Jamison Hensley (@jamisonhensley) November 23, 2020

A shaky offensive line won’t help Lamar Jackson, who’s been held below 210 passing yards in both career meetings versus the Steelers. Pittsburgh ranks first in coverage and pass rush productivity, according to PFF, while racking up a league-high 38 sacks and an NFL best 21 turnovers.