Opening Fritz vs Alcaraz Odds – American Big Underdog to World #2 in Wimbledon Semis
By Sascha Paruk in Tennis
Published:
- Taylor Fritz has advanced to his second career grand slam semifinal
- Fritz will meet world #2 Carlos Alcaraz in the Wimbledon 2025 semis
- See the opening Fritz vs Alcaraz odds for Friday’s match on center court
Taylor Fritz’s career-best season continued on Tuesday with a four-set win over #17 Karen Khachanov. The win moves the American into the Wimbledon semifinals, novel territory for Fritz at the All England Club and just the second-ever grand slam semifinal for the 27-year-old.
Unfortunately, Fritz will have to face reigning champion and world #2 Carlos Alcaraz in Friday’s semifinal on center court, an opponent he’s yet to beat.
Sportsbooks have opened the odds for Fritz vs Alcaraz, and they’re not pretty for the 6’5 American.
Fritz vs Alcaraz Odds
The opening odds set Alcaraz as a massive -600 favorite, an 85.71% implied win probability. Fritz comes back as a +400 underdog (20% implied win probability). He’s slightly shorter in the odds to win the first set, sitting at +240 (29.41%) with Alcaraz a -300 favorite (75%). The other match props have yet to open.
Fritz and Alcaraz will meet on center court in the first men’s semifinal on Friday, July 11, meaning both players will be playing on two days’ rest.
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Alcaraz vs Fritz H2H History
Fritz and Alcaraz have met twice in their careers with the Spaniard winning both easily. The first came on home soil for Fritz in 2023, when he fell 6-4, 6-2 in the quarterfinals of the Miami Open. The second was in 2024 Laver Cup play in Berlin; Alcaraz again won in straight sets, 6-2, 7-5.
In Fritz’s only other grand slam semifinal appearance, he had a much easier draw, beating fellow American Frances Tiafoe (then #20 in the world) in a marathon five setter (4-6, 7-5, 4-6, 6-4, 6-1). He would go onto lose in straight sets to #1 Jannik Sinner in the final (6-2, 6-4, 7-5).
After Sinner struggled in his round-of-16 match against Grigor Dimitrov (falling behind two sets to none before the Bulgarian was forced to retire due to injury), Alcaraz became a sizable favorite to repeat as Wimbledon champ. The current Wimbledon title odds set the 22-year-old as an odds-on, -165 favorite.
That’s despite the Spaniard looking a lot more vulnerable than usual in his first four matches. He was taken to five sets by aging clay-courter Fabio Fognini in the first round. He also dropped a set to #125 Jan-Lennard Struff in the round of 16 and again to #14 Andrey Rublev in the quarters.
His only straight-set win so far came against world #733 Oliver Tarvet (6-1, 6-4 6-4), who played by far the best tennis of his career to make it through qualifying and then got a favorable first-round draw against fellow qualifier and world #503 Leandro Reidi.
Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
