Before Betting Game 5 of Hawks vs Bucks, Know the Referees Assigned and How They Will Affect the Game

When Guthrie referees Bucks games, Milwaukee is 1-3, scoring an average of 120.3 points and allowing 117.5 points, a total of 237.8. When Guthrie referees Hawks games, they are 0-2, scoring an average of 107.5 points and allowing an average of 119.5.

And then there is this stat: In Hawks games refereed by Guthrie, opponents average 24.5 free throws per game to the Hawks’ 17.0.

Officiating Trends: Game 5 Hawks vs Bucks

Game 1 went over by six points in Atlanta’s 116-113 victory on the road in Milwaukee, and the referees were veterans Zach Zarba, Eric Lewis and Tyler Floyd. The teams combined for only 30 free throws, and the over was a product of Young going off for 48 points in another of his dominant road performances.

Game 2 went under by 10 points as Milwaukee crushed the Hawks 125-91. The Bucks were ahead 77-45 at halftime in a game that will not exactly be remembered fondly, and the teams combined for just 33 free throws in a game officiated by Pat Fraher, Courtney Kirkland and Scott Foster.

Hawks fans were trolling Giannis after this FT air ball 😂 pic.twitter.com/M10Jhx3TGr

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) June 28, 2021

Game 3 went under by 9 points in the Bucks’ 113-102 victory refereed by Marc Davis, Sean Wright and Kevin Scott, the teams combining for 37 free throws in a game Milwaukee won by outscoring the Hawks 30-17 in the fourth quarter.

And Game 4 this past Tuesday went under by 17 points as Atlanta won 110-88 as the Bucks were not only all-around horrid, they also lost Antetokounmpo to a hyperextended knee. The officiating crew of James Capers, Josh Tiven and Tom Washington sent the teams to the line a combined 32 times. Two of those attempts were airballs by Giannis prior to his injury.

Tony Brothers, James Williams Round Out Officials

The second official tonight is Tony Brothers, who is in his 27th season as an NBA ref and has worked 11 NBA Finals games. The Hawks were 1-1 in games he officiated this season, and the Bucks were 5-1.

The third referee is James Williams, who is in his 11th season but has never worked an NBA Finals game. Atlanta was 1-2 in games he officiated, and Milwaukee was 1-3.

In Hawks games officiated by Brothers, Atlanta averaged 118.5 points and the two teams took an average of 49.5 free throws. In Bucks games officiated by Brothers, Milwaukee averaged 119.8 points per game and the two teams took an average of 46.0 free throws.

When Williams worked Hawks games, Atlanta averaged only 110.3 points and their opponents averaged 120.5. When he worked Bucks games, Milwaukee averaged 118.0 points and their opponents averaged 122.7.

Other Important Trends For Tonight’s Referees

Statistics through June 30th

All of this is relevant because Bucks coach Mike Budenholzer is concentrating on different types of offensive scheming due to this:

Giannis Antetokounmpo is out (hyperextended left knee) for Game 5 tonight. pic.twitter.com/AukUvfi7SU

— Milwaukee Bucks (@Bucks) July 1, 2021

What’s The Best Way To Bet Based Off These Trends?

Think like a coach.

Imagine you are Budenholzer or Nate McMillan. Are you focusing on ways to stop the opposing team’s star? No. You are devising ways to score despite being without your superstar. Coach Bud is highlighting schemes to free Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez. Coach McMillan is figuring out ways to get 3-point opportunities for Bogdan Bogdanovic, Danilo Gallinari and Lou Williams.

Budenholzer will tell his team to attack the basket and draw fouls against Clint Capela and John Collins, because the Bucks need to get those big men out of the game. McMillan will be looking for ways to draw Lopez to the perimeter and away from the basket, allowing Williams and others to drive and dish, or drive and draw fouls.

These teams are overdue for a close game, and close games almost always involve fourth quarter clock management and lots and lots of free throws.

Hawks vs Bucks Game 5 Odds

Odds as of mid-afternoon July 1st

With the Bucks favored, think of the odds as a jigsaw puzzle. And putting the pieces together is tricky, but not impossible. Tonight’s game requires homework prior to wagering. This is your cheat sheet. Now go out and ace the test. There is no arguing with the math, and in 168 games refereed by these guys, 112 had a total of at least 220 points. That’s 66.67 percent. Good luck!

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