Gerrit Cole Still Odds-On AL Cy Young Favorite Despite Struggles; Who Should Be Favored?
- New York Yankees pitcher Gerrit Cole remains the -159 odds-on favorite to win the 2021 American League Cy Young Award
- Cole leads the AL in strikeouts but is just 8-4 with a 2.91 ERA
- No other pitcher shows odds of better than +275 in this betting market, though
Through his recent years of dominance, New York Yankees pitcher Gerrit Cole has never managed to win the American League Cy Young Award. Could it be that this year, the Yankees right-hander is going to win it on reputation?
Cole is enjoying a decent year but he’s certainly not pitching lights out as he has in previous campaigns. However, no other AL hurler is dominating, either. At this point, that means the Cy Young remains Cole’s to lose.
He’s currently listed at -159 to win the award in the AL Cy Young odds. Carlos Rodon of the Chicago White Sox is at +275. No other AL pitcher is showing better odds than +600.
2021 AL Cy Young Odds
| Pitcher (Team) | Odds at DraftKings |
|---|---|
| Gerrit Cole (Yankees) | -159 |
| Carlos Rodon (White Sox) | +275 |
| Lance Lynn (White Sox) | +600 |
| Shane Bieber (Cleveland) | +2000 |
| Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox) | +2000 |
| John Means (Orioles) | +2500 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu (Blue Jays) | +3500 |
| Kyle Gibson (Rangers) | +3500 |
| Tyler Glasnow (Rays) | +4000 |
| Zack Greinke (Astros) | +4000 |
| Jose Berrios (Twins) | +5000 |
| Dylan Bundy (Angels) | +5000 |
| Lucas Giolito (White Sox) | +5000 |
| Cristian Javier (Astros) | +5000 |
| Chris Bassitt (Athletics) | +5000 |
| Dylan Cease (White Sox) | +6000 |
| Danny Duffy (Royals) | +6000 |
| Aroldis Chapman (Yankees) | +6000 |
| Aaron Civale (Cleveland) | +6000 |
| Shohei Ohtani (Angels) | +6600 |
Odds as of July 5.
King Cole’s Crown Slipping?
Cole occupies his usual place atop the AL strikeout leaders. He’s fanned 135 batters in 105 innings.
That averages out to 11.6 strikeouts per nine innings. Cole’s 36.6% strikeout rate over the past three seasons is #1 in baseball. He’s also #1 in the AL this season in strikeout-to-walk ratio (6.75).
Gerrit Cole has allowed as many earned runs in his last two starts as Jacob deGrom has allowed all season.
— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) July 4, 2021
Other than that, his numbers aren’t awe-inspiring. Cole’s ERA and his hits per nine innings (6.9) are his highest totals in five seasons.
Cole is 3-3 over his last six decisions. He’s been touched for five earned runs in two of those losses. In his last trip to the mound, the Boston Red Sox got to Cole for six runs, five earned, over five innings. That included three home runs.
I don't get to see Gerrit Cole much, but if he's worth $324 million, Jacob deGrom must be worth $648 million.
— Mike Puma (@NYPost_Mets) July 4, 2021
During his first season pitching at home-run friendly Yankee Stadium, Cole’s home run-per-nine innings rate went from 1.23 to 1.73. This year, though, it’s gone down to 1.3.
Cole was fourth in Cy Young voting last season. In 2019, despite leading the AL in wins and strikeouts with the Houston Astros, Cole finished second in the balloting to teammate Justin Verlander.
Surprising AL Contenders
A number of pitchers who weren’t prominent on the AL Cy Young radar at the start of the season have pitched themselves into a position of prominence.
Lance Lynn of the Chicago White Sox is 8-3 with a 2.02 ERA. His betting line has shortened from +1700 to +600. Nathan Eovaldi of the Red Sox is allowing the fewest homers per nine innings of any pitcher in the AL (.369). He went from +4000 to +2000.
Since May 22, Nathan Eovaldi has a 2.27 ERA in 8 starts, which is the fifth best in the American League. pic.twitter.com/FTke2OqeuJ
— Jared Carrabis (@Jared_Carrabis) July 1, 2021
Lynn’s teammate Rodon, fourth in the AL in strikeouts, and Gibson (+3500) of the Texas Rangers weren’t really considered in the preseason AL Cy Young odds. Gibson leads AL pitchers in WAR (4.4) and ERA (1.98). Cleveland’s Aaron Civale (+6000) is atop the AL in wins (10) and winning percentage (.833).
Is Zack A Factor?
Houston’s Zack Greinke won the AL Cy Young with the 2009 Kansas City Royals. The veteran campaigner leads the league in innings pitched (111.1) and games started (18).
Zack Greinke, Nice 69mph Curveball. 👍♋️ pic.twitter.com/cRn0Vwelu4
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 4, 2021
He’s won eight games and shows an .800 winning percentage. Yet his betting line has lengthened to +4000 after being +3300 to start the season.
It sure looks like this award is Cole’s to lose. Now it’s up to him not to lose it.
Pick: Gerrit Cole (-159)
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
