Oilers vs Flames Game 5 Odds and Picks

• The Oilers vs Flames odds favor Calgary as -145 moneyline favorites in Game 5 on Thursday (9:30 pm ET)
• Edmonton leads the best-of-7 series 3-1 after a 5-3 victory in Game 4
• Read below for the Oilers vs Flames Game 5 odds, analysis and betting prediction

The Edmonton Oilers are one win away from their first trip to the Western Conference Final since 2006. Edmonton earned its third straight win over Calgary in Game 4 on Tuesday night, in a wild game that nearly saw them squander a three-goal lead.

The Oilers can close out the series on the road on Thursday, although oddsmakers are bullish on the Flames’ chances of pushing the series to at least a sixth game.

Oilers vs Flames Odds

Odds as of May 25th at Barstool Sportsbook.

The Flames opened up as -145 moneyline favorites, in a contest that features a total of 6.5. Puck drop is set for 9:30 pm ET at the Scotiabank Saddledome in Calgary, AB, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.

As for the series market, Edmonton is now -600 to advance to the conference final. Five days ago they were 10-1 to win the West but that number has shrunk all the way down to +260. As for the Stanley Cup odds, the Oilers check in with odds of +650, which is slightly worse than Carolina and well behind Tampa Bay and Colorado.

Oilers vs Flames Betting Analysis

Before Game 4 was even 22 seconds old, Edmonton was already ahead 1-0. They extended the lead to 3-0 by the end of first period, but then the momentum started to shift. Calgary cut the lead to one in the second period with goals 36 seconds apart, and then tied the game with one of the most unusual shorthanded goals you’ll ever see.

WHAT JUST HAPPENED?!?! pic.twitter.com/8odbXzvA6V

— Spittin' Chiclets (@spittinchiclets) May 25, 2022

Fortunately for Oilers backers, Edmonton was able to shake off the epic blunder and pull ahead roughly six minutes later. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins buried his second goal of the game to put the Oilers up for good, before Evander Kane sealed the 5-3 victory with an empty netter. Kane scored twice giving him a playoff-high 12 goals, while Connor McDavid continued his postseason tear.

The overwhelming favorite in the Art Ross Trophy odds chipped in two assists giving him a staggering 25 points in 11 playoff games. He’s racked up 11 points through four games in this series, and has recorded at least two points in all but one playoff outing so far.

Connor McDavid had his 7th straight multi-point game on Tuesday.

The only player with a longer streak in Stanley Cup Playoffs history is Wayne Gretzky (8 in 1983). pic.twitter.com/Lp2LDsdyA6

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) May 25, 2022

Despite the gaffe on the game-tying goal, Mike Smith outperformed Jacob Markstrom yet again with 29 saves. Markstrom, a top-two Vezina Trophy odds candidate, has struggled badly all series. He’s coughed up four goals on 25 shots, and has now yielded 19 goals in four games. By comparison, he surrendered only 11 goals in Calgary’s seven game First Round series.

Markstrom’s struggles versus Edmonton extend back to the regular season. He posted a 3.54 GAA and .884 save percentage against the Oilers, which was a far cry from his season-long 2.22 GAA and .922 SV%.

Oilers vs Flames Pick

If the Flames are going to get back into this series they’re going to need a much stronger effort from Markstrom. On the bright side for potential Calgary backers is Markstrom’s tremendous numbers at the Scotiabank Saddledome. He was 22-8-7 at home this season, with a sparkling 2.17 GAA.

Jacob Markstrom needs to be better for Calgary. He has not had a good playoffs for the Flames. #flames

— Jim Biringer (@JimBiringer) May 25, 2022

If Markstrom can elevate his play, the numbers suggest the Flames are due. They held a 64% to 36% Corsi advantage in Game 4 and produced more shots on goal and high danger scoring chances. For the series, they hold a 58% to 42% advantage in Corsi, and have produced seven more high danger scoring chances and 1.6 more expected goals.

Calgary has also been the better team with the man advantage which leads me to the following conclusion: if Markstrom can find the form he flashed during the regular season and opening round of the playoffs the Flames will emerge victorious in Game 5. It’s a lot to ask given how he’s looked in the first four outings, but we saw similar struggles from Vezina Trophy favorite Igor Shesterkin last round, before he helped New York erase a 3-1 series deficit against Pittsburgh.

Pick: Calgary Flames Moneyline (-145)