Expert NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 4

• Our NFL experts predict their top picks against the spread for NFL Week 4
• Will the Vikings cover the spread as three-point favorites in London?
• Read on for our expert NFL picks against the spread for Week 4 below

Weekend action in the NFL kicks off early on Sunday morning and two of our expert NFL picks come from the London game between Minnesota vs New Orleans. What else are our experts picking in Week 4 for their NFL ATS picks? Read on to find out.

Last week we combined for a 5-4 record in our expert NFL picks, bringing our season-long record to 19-13.

Each week we’ll pick our top picks against the spread and keep track of our records throughout the season. Read on for this week’s top NFL ATS picks.

Expert NFL Picks Against the Spread Week 4

Odds as of September 30. Check out this DraftKings Sportsbook promo code to bet on the NFL this weekend

Our Week 4 NFL expert picks against the spread are spread out over seven different teams, with two experts predicting Kirk Cousins and the Vikings heading across the pond and covering the spread in London.

Ryan Metivier

• Falcons (+1.5) at DraftKings Sportsbook

Hands up if you thought that the Browns and Falcons would be a combined 3-3 SU and 5-1 ATS after three weeks? I’m betting that crowd is pretty thin. That the Browns are sitting tops in the AFC North and that the Falcons are one of only three teams (Miami and Detroit, now just two after TNF) to be a perfect 3-0 ATS are both surprises.

Browns’ games have basically all been close. 26-24 road win. 31-30 home loss. 29-17 home win

NFL teams still undefeated against the spread this season:

Miami Dolphins 3-0 ATS
Detroit Lions 3-0 ATS
Atlanta Falcons 3-0 ATS
Houston Texans 2-0-1 ATS

— Ben Fawkes (@BFawkes22) September 27, 2022

This one looks to be a battle of attrition with both teams’ strengths coming on the ground. Cleveland ranks first in rushing offense, while Atlanta is fifth. But then each team is also strong defending the run, with Cleveland allowing under 100 YPG on the ground (83.7) to rank seventh, and Atlanta at 109.3 YPG ranking 15th.

This is one of the shortest spreads of the week, and it basically a coin flip game, I’m siding with the home team getting the points in my expert NFL picks.

• Steelers (-3) at DraftKings Sportsbook

I can’t believe I’m going to line up behind Mitchell Trubisky for one of my best bets this week. But, we have a lot of coin flip-looking games this week, and the alternative in this game, backing Zach Wilson, looks even less desirable.

Wilson is coming off of a knee injury that cost him time in training camp and the first three weeks of the season. He’ll debut on Sunday against a Steelers team on extra rest. Wilson threw 11 interceptions last season to just nine touchdowns. Pittsburgh already has five INTs this season, including four against Joe Burrow in Week 1. Wilson could be in for a long day in his return in Week 4.

The Jets are 1-10 in their last 11 games against the Steelers when playing in Pittsburgh. #Steelers #NFL

— Blitzburgh (@Blitz_Burgh) September 29, 2022

• Vikings (-3) at FanDuel Sportsbook

How either team adjusts and performs across the pond at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium is tough to call. Which initially made me want to stay far away from this one. The Vikings have been all over the map. Easily beating the Packers, getting stomped in Philly and then mounting a big comeback at home to beat the Lions.

The Saints went into Atlanta and came away one-point winners, held Tampa in check before unraveling late in the game and then lost 22-14 in Carolina last week. New Orleans was also losing 13-0 entering the fourth quarter in that one.

Saints also believe it’s doubtful that Jameis Winston, who didn’t practice today for a third straight day, will play Sunday, which makes it likely that QB Andy Dalton will start vs. the Vikings. https://t.co/LWwHdUmVMM

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 30, 2022

But what puts me on the Minnesota side is the rash of injuries at key positions New Orleans will be dealing with. QB Jameis Winston is doubtful with a back injury which could mean we see backup Andy Dalton. Top WR Micael Thomas is out. Fellow WR Jarvis Landry is questionable. RB Alvin Kamara is questionable and so is LG Andrus Peat. I don’t think the Saints will have enough offense to go toe-to-toe with the likes of Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen. The Vikes will be the ones getting the neutral fans in London out of their seats on Sunday morning.

Zach Reger

• Ravens (+3) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Could the Super Bowl favorite Buffalo Bills really drop two in a row? After a heartbreak loss last week to their division rivals, they now travel to Baltimore. Both of these teams have high-powered offenses, but this game could get murky with Hurricane Ian moving up the coast. They are currently expecting rain and 20-mile-per-hour winds on Sunday.

These weather conditions lean toward the team that can run the ball better. While the Bills rushing attack is improved, they are still a pass-first team. And while the Ravens’ rushing attack other than Lamar Jackson has struggled, I still trust them on the ground over Buffalo.

Lamar Jackson has been playing at an MVP level, and that should continue on Sunday. Jackson has only been a home underdog twice in his career, and he won both of those games. The Bills are hurting on the defensive side of the ball. They were without six players on defense last week, and cornerback Christian Benford and defensive tackle Jordan Phillips have already been ruled out. I like getting points with a talented, home underdog team in Baltimore. Home underdogs are 13-9-1 against the spread this season.

• Raiders (-2.5) at FanDuel Sportsbook. Claim your FanDuel Sportbook promo code for this weekend here

The Raiders are the only winless team, and they are favorites in a divisional matchup. That was enough to catch my eye and dive deeper into this matchup. Before the season started, this game was a pick ’em. Fast forward to three weeks into the year: the Broncos are 2-1, and the Raiders are 0-3. The Raiders are now -2.5. Something does not seem right there.

The big money is also on the Raiders spread as 65% of the bets are on the Raiders and 80% of the handle is on Las Vegas in NFL betting trends. Teams that start off as 0-3 are 63.6% in picks against the spread in Week 4 since 2020, and they are 55% against the spread since 2018.

Raiders are first team to be the ONLY 0-3 team in NFL since the 1959 Lions pic.twitter.com/oRotT8hzTU

— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) September 30, 2022

Now the Broncos have not looked like a 2-1 team. After a close loss on Monday Night Football in Week 1, Denver has won two close, ugly games against Houston and San Francisco. On the other side, the Raiders have looked good in spurts this season, but have not been able to string together two good halves in one game.

In Week 1 against the Chargers, the Raiders came out flat but made a strong push in the second half to keep it close. Reversely, in Week 2, the Raiders went up 20-0 at halftime against the Cardinals, but blew the lead and lost in overtime. In Week 3, they held the Titans scoreless and were a two-point conversion away from forcing overtime. In a battle of two rookie head coaches, I will go with the team that has more talent, and that surprisingly has been the 0-3 Las Vegas Raiders.

At home, the Raiders’ defense should be able to limit Denver’s offense, which has scored the league’s second-worst points per game with 14.3. The Broncos’ defense has looked good, but the Raiders have the talent on offense to give them the edge in this one.

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