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Week 4 NFL Picks Against the Spread – Early Lines to Target

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in NFL Football

Sep 27, 2022 · 10:09 AM PDT

Week 4 NFL Picks Against the Spread
Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) runs off the field after defeating the Buffalo Bills 21-19 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Sept. 25, 2022.
  • Through Week 3 of the NFL season, the Detroit Lions, Atlanta Falcons and Miami Dolphins are all a perfect 3-0 against the spread
  • At the other end, the New Orleans Saints and Las Vegas Raiders are the only 0-3 ATS teams
  • Read below for an analysis of our best Week 4 NFL picks against the spread

Assessing the Week 4 NFL picks against the spread, there’s just one team remaining in the league that is the picture of perfection. That would be the Miami Dolphins.

The Dolphins are 3-0 straight up and 3-0 against the spread. Miami also leads the NFL in butt punts, but that didn’t prevent the Fins from beating the Buffalo Bills 21-19 in Week 3 as 5.5-point home underdogs.

Miami was among five home underdogs that covered during Week 3 action. Something to keep in mind when analyzing which teams to put your money on during Week 4 games.

Miami will be a 3.5-point road underdog against the reigning AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals in Week 4.

The Detroit Lions and Atlanta Falcons are the only other remaining 3-0 ATS teams in the NFL. But both of those squads are 1-2 SU.

For the first time since 2020, NFL betting sites are setting the Lions as the chalk. Detroit is a 4.5-point home favorite over the Seattle Seahawks. The Falcons, who won and covered last week at Seattle, are 1.5-point home underdogs this week facing the Cleveland Browns.

Let’s take a look and see if any of these perfect ATS squads made their way into the best bets in our Week 4 NFL picks against the spread.

Week 4 NFL Picks Against the Spread

Matchup Spread Pick Units Risked
Minnesota Vikings vs New Orleans Saints MIN -2.5 MIN 1
Los Angeles Chargers vs Houston Texans LAC -5 HOU 1
Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers SF -2.5 LAR 1

Odds as of September 27 at Caesars Sportsbook. Get this Caesars Sportsbook bonus code to bet on the NFL.

Our top NFL ATS picks this week in the table above will feature plays on the Vikings, Texans and Rams.



NFL ATS Pick 1: Vikings Cover Against Saints And Won’t Need Miracle

Minnesota is 6-2 ATS in the last eight games at New Orleans. That might explain why the Vikings are getting 73% of point spread handle action in NFL public betting splits as 2.5-point road favorites over the Saints even though this one is being played in Merry Old England with New Orleans as the designated home team.

And those Saints weren’t these Saints. New Orleans is trending downward. Minnesota is trending upward. The Vikings cover and it isn’t a Minnesota Miracle.

Pick: Minnesota Vikings -2.5 (-110), 1 unit

NFL ATS Pick 2: Unbeaten ATS Texans Facing Chargers At Home

The Texans aren’t perfect ATS but they are unbeaten at 2-0-1, even though they are 0-2-1 SU. Going back to last season, Houston is 5-1-1 ATS. Houston is a 5-point underdog against the Los Angeles Chargers.

The Texans are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 games as an underdog of 5+ points. The Chargers lost at home last week as the 6.5-point chalk against Jacksonville. Quarterback Justin Herbert (ribs) is ailing. LA is 10-10-1 ATS the last 21 times taking the field as a favorite of 5+ points.

Pick: Houston Texans +5 (-110), 1 unit

NFL ATS Pick 3: Rams a Solid Road Underdog Play At 49ers

Last season, the Rams were 0-3 ATS in three games against the 49ers. But they were 2-1 SU. And in each of those games, they were giving 3.5 points.

This time, the Rams are getting 2.5 points. By the way, did you watch Jimmy Garoppolo at the helm of the 49ers offense last week? And you’d think about betting San Francisco in your NFL picks against the spread after that performance?

Pick: Los Angeles Rams -2.5 (-110), 1 unit

  • ATS season record 6-3

NFL Week 4 Against the Spread Quick Picks

  • Dolphins (-3.5) vs Bengals: Will Miami suffer a letdown after the big win over Buffalo? Perhaps, but how do you not take the Dolphins at +3.5?
  • Eagles (-6.5) vs Jaguars: Jacksonville snapped an 18-game road SU unbeaten streak last week at the Chargers. Philadelphia covered at Washington as 6.5-point favorites.
  • Browns (-1.5) vs Falcons: Browns improve to 3-1 SU with Jacoby Brissett under center. Deshaun who?
  • Seahawks (+4.5) vs Lions: Detroit hasn’t beaten Seattle since 2012. The Lions haven’t won and covered at home since 2020.
  • Bears (+3.5) vs Giants: The Giants haven’t won and covered as a home favorite since 2019. That was three head coaches ago.
  • Cowboys (-3) vs Commanders: If you figure out what it is that the Commanders are in command of, please advise.
  • Titans (+3) vs Colts: Titans are 4-1 ATS in their last five visits to Indianapolis.
  • Steelers (-3.5) vs Jets: Jets are 1-10 SU all-time at Pittsburgh and 2-6 ATS in their last eight visits there.
  • Bills (-3.5) vs Ravens: Buffalo bounces back in a big way following the loss at Miami.
  • Panthers (-2) vs Cardinals: Carolina ended an 0-9 ATS skid with last week’s win over New Orleans. The previous ATS cover by Carolina? Against Arizona.
  • Raiders (-2.5) vs Broncos: Denver can’t keep winning by scoring less than 17 points per game.
  • Packers (-10.5) vs Patriots: Green Bay already covered as 10-point home chalk vs the Bears in Week 2.
  • Buccaneers (+2.5) vs Chiefs: Kansas City is 7-7 ATS in the last 14 games following a loss and 3-5 ATS over the past eight games.


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