Xavier vs Villanova Odds, Spread and Picks (Jan. 7)

• Big East contenders Xavier and Villanova meet in a league game on Saturday, January 7
• Villanova is an 0.5-point favorite against No. 18 Xavier at its campus home Finneran Pavilion
• Read below for Xavier vs Villanova odds, analysis and prediction

Villanova (8-7, 2-2 Big East) is an 0.5-point home favorite against Xavier at 4:30 pm ET Saturday at Finneran Pavilion on FS1. The Wildcats have won six of eight since losing all three in the Phil Knight Invitational over the Thanksgiving weekend.  The Wildcats are 16-2 SU and 15-3 ATS in the series since Xavier joined the Big East in 2013-14.

No. 18 Xavier (12-3, 4-0 Big East) has won eight straight games and is off to its best Big East start in program history after a marquee victory over No. 4 UConn the last time out. The Musketeers lead Division I in assists per game.

Xavier vs Villanova Odds

Odds as of January 6th at Fanduel Sportsbook.

Villanova is an 0.5-point home favorite against Xavier in a series the Wildcats have dominated. The Wildcats are 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS since Xavier’s 90-83 victory as a one-point home underdog over the No. 1-ranked Wildcats on Feb. 24, 2016. Villanova is 8-0 SU and ATS in the eight previous meetings in Philadelphia, all as a favorite of at least 5.5 points.

The Wildcats are 6-9 ATS this season, 3-1 in the Big East. Xavier is 8-6-1 ATS, 3-1 in the Big East and 2-0 on the road in the league. The total has gone over in 12 of the Musketeers’ 15 games. The over is 8-7 in Villanova games.

Xavier Rises Under Miller

Sean Miller and the Musketeers have had a week to prepare for this game after their marquee 83-73 home victory over then-No. 2 UConn on Dec. 31, a game not decided until Xavier closed the game on a 12-2 run over the final four minutes. The Musketeers held UConn to 1-of-10 from the floor in that stretch. Xavier has won this season with unselfishness — it leads Division I with an average of 21.0 assists per game and with help from the extra pass is fourth in Division I with a 50.8 field goal percentage.

Big East PER leaders entering today:

Adama Sanogo (@UConnMBB): 29.9
Ryan Kalkbrenner (@BluejayMBB): 29.7
Joel Soriano (@StJohnsBBall): 28.6
Ed Croswell (@PCFriarsMBB): 27.7
Jack Nunge (@XavierMBB): 25.8

— College Basketball Reference (@collegebb_ref) January 4, 2023

The ultra-balanced Musketeers have four players averaging at least 14 points a game, all of whom are shooting better than 50 percent. Guard 6’3 Souley Boum (16.9 points, 4.6 assists) and mobile forward 6’11 Jack Nunge (15.2 points, 7.5 rebounds) and the top scores, with forward 6’9 Zach Freemantle (14.4 points, 7.8 rebounds) and guard 6’5 Colby Jones (14.3 points, 52 rebounds, 5.6 assists). Freemantle held his own against preseason UConn Big East player of the year Adama Sanogo and Nunge played through the flu to score 15 points while reserve forward Jerome Hunter stepped with 15 points and six rebounds.

Xavier has winning peripherals. It has a plus-5.6 rebound margin and a plus-5.9 assist margin and is holding opponents to 43.9 percent field goal shooting, in the lower third of Division I. The Musketeers’ losses are on the road at Indiana and at neutral sites to Duke and Gonzaga. Creighton and Marquette follow Villanova.

Villanova Back on Track

The Wildcats have won six of eight since the roster lengthened with the return of prize freshman forward Cam Whitmore, who missed the first seven games with a thumb injury. Whitmore adds a scoring wing to a group that includes returning veterans guard Caleb Daniels and forwards Eric Dixon (15.6 points, 6.4 rebounds) and Brandon Slater.

Big East scoring leaders:

1. Adama Sanogo 17.4 PPG (J)
2. Souley Boum 16.9 PPG (S)
3. Bryce Hopkins 16.4 PPG (So)
4. Caleb Daniels 16.3 PPG (S)
5. Joel Soriano 16.2 PPG (S)

— Big East Buckets (@BigEastBuckets_) January 5, 2023

Daniels (16.3 points) had 20 points, six threes and four steals when the Wildcats sent Georgetown to its 25th straight Big East loss Wednesday in D.C.  Villanova’s only losses with Whitmore (11.3 points, 6.1 rebounds) are to UConn and Marquette, and more help might be coming. Guard Justin Moore (Achilles) appears to be nearing a return after suffering his injury last March.

Part-time starting guard Jordan Longino appeared to re-injure his surgically repaired left knee in the first half of the Georgetown game, and his status is unknown. The WIldcats lead Division I in free throw shooting, making 85.3 percent.

Xavier vs Villanova Prediction

Xavier has shown itself to be a strong Big East contender and a second-week candidate for the NCAA tournament in the return of coach Sean Miller, who was a success in his first stint with the Musketeers and is doing it again. At the same time, Villanova has so dominated this series that it is unwise to buck that trend. Take the Wildcats, who are improving as the season progresses.

• Pick: Villanova -0.5 (-105)
• Season CBK: 14-7 ATS