Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers Predictions, Best Odds & Public Betting Splits for TNF (Week 16)

• A huge AFC West showdown between the Broncos and Chargers is cued up for Thursday Night Football on Dec. 19
• The winner will hold the second AFC Wild Card at the end of the night, while the loser will be in the final AFC playoff spot
• See the Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers predictions, best odds, and public-betting splits for TNF in Week 16

God bless flex games. The original TNF schedule in Week 16 had also-rans Cleveland and Cincinnati on the slate but the NFL schedule-makers flexed in a huge game between the (likely) playoff-bound Denver Broncos (9-5, 4-3 away, 11-3 ATS) and Los Angeles Chargers (8-6, 4-3 home, 9-5 ATS) instead. The Broncos and Chargers will kickoff at 5:15 pm PT/8:15 pm ET at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA, and the hometown Chargers have been set as 2.5-point favorites in a game with massive playoff implications.

Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers Prediction

• Under 41.5 (-115) at ESPN Bet 
• Broncos moneyline (+126) at FanDuel
  

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  Odds as of Dec. 19. See the latest sports betting promotions or learn how to bet on NFL point spreads if you’re new to sports betting. 
  

As I’ll discuss in more detail below, the Broncos vs Chargers spread and moneyline have steadily been shifting in Denver’s direction since the Week 16 NFL odds opened on Sunday night. LAC was a field-goal favorite and -146 on the moneyline. Now the spread has come down to 2.5 and the Chargers are as short as -140.

I have been backing Denver from the jump and am not backing off that handicap now. The Broncos are a more complete team that outranks the Chargers in point differential (+89 vs +47) and DVOA (+10.9% vs 9.0%). Denver is also considerably healthier heading into TNF. The Chargers are without running back JK Dobbins, starting LCB Asante Samuel Jr and his replacement Cam Hart, RCB Eli Apple, tight ends Will Dissly and Hayden Hurst, plus safety Alohi Gilman and potentially his replacement Elijah Molden, who’s doubtful.

The long list of injuries is clearly catching up to the Chargers, who were demolished 40-17 by the Buccaneers at home last week, getting outscored 27 to nothing in the second half. There just aren’t enough healthy bodies, especially on defense, for the Chargers to maintain a high level over 60 minutes.

The biggest Broncos, meanwhile, will be without starting RCB Riley Moss and RB2 Jaleel McLaughlin but are otherwise basically healthy. Denver enters TNF on a four-game win streak with all four wins by at least nine points and by an average of 17.3 PPG.

Rookie QB Bo Nix had a rough outing last time out (130 yards, three TDs, three INTs) against the Colts but had been playing the best football of his young career prior. From Week 12 to Week 14, he averaged 291.3 yards per game with seven touchdowns and just two picks.

Best Available Broncos vs Chargers Odds

The Broncos vs Chargers odds have been on the move since Wednesday morning. After opening at Chargers -3.0, the spread has come down to LAC -2.5 at all sportsbooks. DraftKings currently has the best price on Denver to cover (-102) while BetMGM, Caesars, ESPN Bet, and FanDuel all have the Chargers -2.5 at -115.

The best moneyline price on LAC is -140 at ESPN Bet while FanDuel has the longest odds on Denver winning straight-up (+126).

The game total has also shifted significantly since it opened at 42.5. About half of online sportsbook have lowered it all the way to 41.0 while the other half list it at 41.5, but with the under slightly favored.

Broncos vs Chargers Public-Betting Splits & Percentages

Broncos vs Chargers NFL public betting splits as of 2:30 pm ET.

The betting splits for TNF show an interesting divide. The public likes the Broncos to cover the minimal spread as 2.5-points road underdogs, putting 68% of money on Denver, but is also enamored with the Chargers moneyline; so far 71% of moneyline handle is on LAC to win straight-up.

Perhaps it’s not surprising that the public is backing the Broncos against the spread, though, as the NFL ATS records show Denver with the very best record against the spread in the entire league.

Now that the O/U has come down as far as 40.0, the public is hammering the over. As of 2:30 pm ET, 70% of money bet on the game total was on the over.