Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Odds, Picks & Player Props to Bet (Sep. 23)

• An elite pitching duel is on tap as Detroit’s Tarik Skubal faces Cleveland’s Gavin Williams in a pivotal AL Central showdown
• The Guardians have won nine of ten, while the Tigers have lost nine of ten and are mired in a five-game losing skid
• Below, see the latest Tigers vs Guardians odds, plus my favorite picks and favorite player props to target

For all intents and purposes, fans will be treated to playoff baseball in Cleveland on Tuesday night when the red-hot Guardians (84-72, 41-34 home) host the ice-cold Detroit Tigers (85-71, 39-36 away) with first-place in the AL Central on the line, a statement that was unfathomable a 2.5 weeks ago when the Tigers led the division by 11 games. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 pm ET at Progressive Field.

A 9-1 Cleveland run coupled with a 1-9 Detroit skid has whittled the Tigers’ lead to one game. Making matters worse for Detroit, the Guardians hold the tiebreaker, leading the head-to-head series 6-4.

With reigning and soon-to-be-two-time AL Cy Young-winner Tarik Skubal (13-5, 2.23 ERA, 0.88 WHIP) on the mound tonight, Detroit is listed as a sizeable road favorite in the Tigers vs Guardians odds. But Cleveland is countering with their own de facto ace, Gavin Williams (11-5, 3.06 ERA, 1.28 WHIP), which is why the run total is at a miniscule 6.5.

Below, find an interactive table with up-to-the-minute DET/CLE odds. Under the table, I have set out the main player props for Tuesday’s game, followed by my Tigers vs Guardians picks and predictions.

Jump to: Odds | Pitcher-vs-Batter History | Player Props | Picks

Tigers vs Guardians Odds

As of 11:01 am ET, the best Detroit moneyline was -158 at FanDuel, while the Guardians were as long as +135 at ESPN Bet, Caesars, and bet365. Bettors who want to target the under can get under 6.5 at even money at BetMGM. Several books have the over at -110, including ESPN Bet, DraftKings, Caesars, and bet365.

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Once the AL favorites in World Series odds, the Tigers have faded to fourth in the AL and ninth overall. The Guardians are just outside the top ten.

DET vs CLE Odds Movement

The betting market has shown some interesting movement heading into this divisional clash. The Tigers opened as -164 favorites on the moneyline and have seen slight action against them, now sitting as long as -158. Correspondingly, the Guardians have tightened from +140 to +135.

The most significant shift has occurred on the total. After opening at 6.5 with the over juiced to -125, the line has balanced to -110 on both sides at most sportsbooks, despite the MLB public betting percentages showing 80% of money on the over.

This reverse line movement is a classic indicator of sharp money hitting the under. Professionals are clearly banking on two elite starters pairing with two struggling offenses to keep this game low-scoring.

Starting Pitcher-vs-Batter History: Skubal vs Williams

Both of tonight’s starters have a history of success against the hitters they’ll see on Tuesday night, and the sample sizes are significant.

Tigers Career Statistics vs Gavin Williams

Gavin Williams has absolutely owned the Tigers’ lineup in their previous encounters. With the exception of Javier Báez, who’s 3-for-6 with a home run and a double, Detroit’s hitters have been completely stifled, posting a collective .143 batting average and miniscule .435 OPS.

Key offensive catalyst Riley Greene is 0-for-11 with five strikeouts, highlighting a significant matchup advantage for the Guardians’ starter. Baez’s longball off of Williams is the only home run Detroit hitters have off the 6’6 righty in 77 at-bats.

Guardians Career Statistics vs Tarik Skubal

Tarik Skubal has been effective against Cleveland, holding them to a .217 collective average in a massive 138 at-bats. Some key Guardians hitters have found success. Both José Ramírez (.849 OPS in 34 at-bats) and Steven Kwan (.313 AVG in 16 at-bats) have handled him well, suggesting the top of Cleveland’s order poses a threat.

Skubal has dominated the bottom half of the lineup, particularly Gabriel Arias (0-for-9 with 6 Ks) and done a phenomenal job of keep the ball in the park, allowing just one home run (Jhonkensy Noel) in the 138 at-bats against the Cleveland hitters.

Tigers vs Guardians Player Props

MLB batter props as of September 23 at ESPN Bet. New users can claim the ESPN Bet promo ahead of Tigers/Guardians tonight.

Gavin Williams’ strikeout line of 5.5 is very appealing. He has dominated this Tigers lineup, which has several high-strikeout hitters. Given his success and the Tigers’ offensive slump, the over at -140 holds value.

For Tarik Skubal, under 1.5 earned runs at -145 is supported by his three prior starts against the Guardians this season. Skubal has allowed just one run (earned or unearned) in 22.0 innings, giving up just 12 hits in that span while striking out an absurd 32 Cleveland hitters.

Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers Picks & Prediction

• Cleveland Guardians moneyline (+135) at bet365
• Under 6.5 runs (+100) at BetMGM
• Williams 7+ Ks (+140) at ESPN Bet

This game presents a fascinating clash of an elite pitcher on a struggling team versus a very good pitcher on a surging team. Skubal is undeniably one of the best arms in baseball, capable of shutting down any lineup on any given night, and he’s already dominated Cleveland three times this season. But the Tigers lost his last start against the Guardians less than a week ago (3-1), despite Skubal allowing just one run over 6.0 innings with nine Ks.

That lack of run support is one of the main reasons the Tigers are in a freefall.

On Tuesday, the slumping Detroit hitters will have the arduous task of facing Gavin Williams, a hard-throwing righty who’s completely shut them down over his brief two-plus-year career. This season alone, Williams has shutout Detroit over 11.0 innings spread across two starts, allowing just four hits against 17 strikeouts.

The Guardians are on an incredible 9-1 run over their last 10 games and have won their last seven straight as an underdog. They are also 6-1 in their last seven home games. The Tigers have been a money pit for bettors latey, going 1-9 in their last 10 games overall and as a favorite.

The under has cashed in the last six Guardians’ home games, a trend that aligns perfectly with this elite pitching matchup.

Given the Guardians’ momentum, their significant home-field advantage, Williams’ favorable matchup history, and the Tigers’ freefall, the value is squarely on Cleveland. Backing the home underdog to continue their hot streak is the primary play, with under 6.5 runs serving as a strong secondary bet at even-money.