Friday Night College Football Picks – Best Bets for Sept. 26

• Friday night college football delivers three prime-time matchups across different conferences
• Power conference battles feature FSU-Virginia and TCU-Arizona State, while Houston looks to stay undefeated against Oregon State
• Check out my three best bets for Friday’s Week 5 college football slate below

Week 5’s Friday college football night slate brings quality over quantity with three games offering betting value. We’ve got conference showdowns and a potential mismatch that might not be as lopsided as it looks. The September 26 schedule features power conference battles that create clear betting edges.

Florida State visits Virginia in a potential ACC shootout at 7 pm on ESPN. TCU and Arizona State clash in the desert at 10 pm on FOX. Houston travels to Oregon State looking to stay perfect at 10:30 pm on ESPN. Each game offers distinct betting value if you know where to look.

I’ve made college football picks tonight for every game, and they all feature an underdog flavor. Let’s dig into my best college football bets for September 26.

Friday Night College Football Picks – Best Bets for Sept. 26

All college football odds as of Sept. 26 from DraftKings. Use the DraftKings promo code to tail our Friday night CFB picks.

Friday College Football Pick #1: Virginia +7

The Cavaliers are getting disrespected at home, and I’m taking the points. Virginia’s offense has been on fire, averaging 45.5 points through four games. They’ve already scored more points at Scott Stadium than they did in three complete previous seasons. This isn’t the same Virginia team that’s been a punching bag in recent years.

Florida State looks impressive at 3-0, but their only road test was that neutral-site loss to Alabama. Since then they’ve beaten East Texas A&M and Kent State at home. Those teams combined for 13 total points. Not exactly battle-tested for what they’ll face in Charlottesville on Friday night.

Chandler Morris has been dealing for Virginia, completing 70.8% of his passes for 1,050 yards with eight touchdowns and just one pick. That’s a quarterback who transferred in with nearly 1,000 career pass attempts. Experience matters in these spots, especially against a talented FSU defense that will test him.

His connection with Trell Harris (18 catches, 321 yards) torched Stanford for three first-quarter touchdowns last week. Harris has become a legitimate deep threat who’ll be matched up against an FSU secondary that allowed Alabama’s Germie Bernard to rack up 146 yards on eight catches in their opener.

Here’s the kicker: Virginia has outscored opponents 19-0 in fourth quarters this season. When games get tight, they deliver. FSU quarterback Thomas Castellanos leads the nation with a 222.5 passer rating, but he’s dealing with a leg injury from the Kent State game. He says he’s 100%, but any limitation to his mobility changes their entire offensive approach.

The line dropped from FSU -8 to -7, indicating sharp money likes the home dog. FSU is also just 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine conference road openers. Road favorites in conference play are always tricky, especially when they’re laying a touchdown against a team that’s found its offensive identity.

This is also the 30th anniversary of Virginia’s historic upset over No. 2 FSU in 1995, and they’re wearing throwback uniforms to commemorate that night. Tony Elliott needs this signature win after going 1-6 in Friday home games since 2015. The energy will be electric at Scott Stadium.

• Best Bet: Virginia +7 (-110) at DraftKings

Friday College Football Pick #2: TCU Moneyline +126

Forget the spread. TCU winning outright at +126 is the play in Tempe. Josh Hoover leads the nation with 333 passing yards per game and 11 touchdown passes through three games. He just watched Eric McAlister torch SMU for 254 yards and three touchdowns last week. That was the second-most receiving yards in TCU program history.

Arizona State’s offense has collapsed without Cam Skattebo. They averaged 6.1 yards per play last year, ranking 33rd nationally. This season? They’ve dropped to 85th at just 5.2 yards per play. That’s not a small decline. It’s a complete offensive collapse that creates a massive mismatch against TCU’s explosive attack.

Sam Leavitt has regressed from his Big 12 Freshman of the Year campaign. He’s thrown six touchdowns against three picks with a 61% completion rate that ranks 13th in the Big 12. Kenny Dillingham is seemingly frustrated and noted that the offense has struggled to find explosive plays.

The Sun Devils needed a last-second field goal to beat Baylor as 2.5-point road underdogs last week. They benefited from a +3 turnover differential and still barely escaped. If Arizona State closed as dogs at Baylor, how are they favorites over a TCU team with far superior offensive metrics?

The analytics support TCU here. The Fremeau Efficiency Index makes this essentially a coin flip on Arizona State’s home field. When you’re getting +126 on essentially a pick’em game, that’s massive value. TCU ranks 11th nationally in yards per play at 7.0. Arizona State sits 85th at 5.2. That gap in offensive efficiency decides games.

Arizona State’s defense ranks 96th in success rate against the best passing offense in the country. McAlister and Jordan Dwyer connected for 70 and 44-yard touchdowns in the fourth quarter alone against SMU. That’s championship-level composure when trailing on the road.

Since TCU’s bye week last October, they’re 9-1 straight-up and 7-3 ATS. Hoover is a veteran quarterback who won’t be rattled by the Blackout atmosphere in Tempe. He’s completing 67.9% of his passes with an 11-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

• Best Bet: TCU Moneyline +126

Friday College Football Pick #3: Oregon State +13.5

This screams trap game for Houston. The Cougars are 3-0 but haven’t played a true road game yet. Their wins came against Stephen F. Austin, Rice, and Colorado at home. Now they travel cross-country for a 10:30 pm ET kickoff after coming off a bye week. That’s a recipe for a sluggish start.

Oregon State sits at 0-4, but desperation creates dangerous teams. Trent Bray’s squad faces the possibility of tying a 30-year program record with an 0-5 start. The last time that happened was 1995 under Jerry Pettibone, and that team finished 2-9. No coach wants that dubious distinction hanging over his program.

Houston coach Willie Fritz already admitted Oregon State “was in the ballgame for quite a period” against No. 6 Oregon. That’s coach-speak for this won’t be easy. The Cougars also have No. 12 Texas Tech coming to town next week in a massive Big 12 showdown. Looking ahead is always dangerous in college football.

The line jumped from Houston -10.5 to -13.5 with the Cougars getting 77% of the betting handle. When public money pushes a number that far, it usually creates value on the other side. Since 2005, double-digit home underdogs with totals under 52 have gone 63-44 ATS (58.9%). This game fits that profile with the total at 47.5.

Oregon State’s running game has been awful. They rank dead last at 131st out of 134 teams with just 70 yards per game. But Houston’s offensive line had four of five starters miss the Colorado game with injuries. Three are expected back, but continuity issues linger on the road against a defense that’s been competitive despite the losses.

Maalik Murphy has struggled for Oregon State, but he’s thrown for 249.3 yards per game. Houston allows just 120 passing yards per game, but they haven’t faced a team with nothing to lose. Bray specifically mentioned how having students back “brings a tremendous amount of energy” to Reser Stadium for Friday night games.

Houston’s defense has allowed just 29 points through three games. That’s impressive, but Stephen F. Austin and Rice aren’t exactly offensive juggernauts. This late kickoff for the Cougars, coming off a bye, means the offense might need time to find rhythm against a desperate Oregon State team.

Two touchdowns is a lot to lay on the road against a desperate team playing on national TV. Oregon State doesn’t need to win. They just need to avoid getting blown out at home in front of a Friday night crowd that’s ready to celebrate any sign of progress.

• Best Bet: Oregon State +13.5