Florida State vs Virginia Prediction, Pick, Odds & How to Watch (Sep. 26)

• #8 Florida State is a 7-point favorite over Virginia in ACC play tonight
• Both teams enter play averaging 42+ points per game
• See below for my Florida State vs Virginia prediction and pick, plus the latest odds and how to watch

It’s an ACC showdown under the Friday night lights as #8 Florida State (3-0) visits unranked Virginia (3-1). Both teams are fresh off multiple convincing wins, and online sportsbooks are expecting another victory by margin tonight for the Seminoles.

Florida State is laying a touchdown in the latest college football odds, a number that feels a little rich given the potency of the Cavaliers’ offense. I wouldn’t fault anyone for taking the points with Virginia Tech, but my favorite bet in this matchup is on the total.

Florida State vs Virginia Prediction and Pick

• Over 59.5 (-115 at FanDuel)

Both programs enter play averaging 42+ points per game. The Seminoles are a serious contender to qualify in the CFP odds, and their offense is a big reason why.

Florida State ranks top-10 in expected points added per pass and rush, and are 15th in finishing drives. Through three games, they’ve scored an astounding 174 points, which is just 11 points fewer than they put up all of last year during a miserable 2-10 campaign.

The big difference is at the quarterback position, where transfer Tommy Castellanos has revitalized the unit. He’s completing 71% of his passes, averaging 15.6 yards per attempt, while also chipping in 139 rushing yards.

Florida State Offensive Stats

The Seminoles skill position corps is extremely explosive, and that’s where they can really hurt the Virginia defense. The Cavaliers struggled to contain NC State’s offense, the lone legit unit they’ve faced, yielding multiple explosive runs to the outside and chunk plays through the air. Virginia ranks 73rd in passing yards allowed, and has already surrendered three 60+ yard completions.

On the other side of the ball, the Cavaliers pose perhaps the stiffest challenge Florida State’s defense has faced. Virginia has put up 103 points in their last two games alone, and ranks inside the top-30 in EPA per pass and rush.

QB Chandler Morris is in his sixth collegiate season, and it’s shaping up to be his best yet. Morris has already thrown for 1.050 yards and 8 scores, while completing 70+ percent of his passes. He’s fresh off a 380-yard, 4 TD outing versus Stanford, and his still position corps is full of explosive talent as well.

A big reason for Morris’ success is the play of his offensive line. He’s taken only one sack so far, which is the second-fewest amount in the country. The Florida State pass rush is legit, just ask Alabama, but I do think their numbers are slightly inflated after playing a JV schedule the last three weeks.

Morris’ experience and the strength of the Cavaliers offensive line should keep Virginia’s offense humming, leading to a handful of scores. Both teams are a combined 7-0 to the over so far, and I expect a shootout tonight in front of the Cavaliers faithful.

Florida State vs Virginia Odds

The best place to bet the over currently is at FanDuel. They’re sitting on 59.5, with the over juiced to -115. Most books are a full point higher, including DraftKings, so place your wagers there if you’re on the under. Per the college football public betting trends, sharp money is on the over. That side of the total is garnering 70% of the handle, off just 39% of the tickets.

As of Friday morning, Florida State is favored by 7 points and -250 on the moneyline, while Virginia comes back as a +202 home underdog.

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Florida State vs Virginia How to Watch

Kickoff for this ACC clash is set for 7pm ET at Scott Stadium in Charlottesville, VA, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage. The forecast is calling for light winds and 77-degree temperatures, with a 40% chance of rain and thunderstorms.