2026-27 College Football Playoff Odds: Notre Dame Heavily Favored

Updated: July 8, 2026 at 1:14 am EDT

Odds to make the 2026 College Football Playoff are out for every contender
Notre Dame leads the way, with Indiana, Oregon, and Miami right behind
See the make and miss CFP odds for all teams

The 2026 season runs back the 12-team College Football Playoff for a third year. The season kicks off August 29th in Week 0. From there, it’s just over three months until the final 12-team field is set.

We’re tracking the odds for teams to make and miss the playoff all season long. Our graphs update regularly, so you can see each team’s chances rise and fall as the games play out.

Selection Day lands on Sunday, December 6th. One change this year: each Power Four champion (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC) gets an automatic bid, plus the top Group of Six team. Notre Dame grabs an at-large spot if it finishes in the top 12. The four highest-ranked teams earn the byes.

Odds to Make College Football Playoff

Team	Odds to Make CFP	Odds to Miss CFP	Implied %
HEAVY FAVORITES
Notre Dame	-750	+490	88.2%
Indiana	-320	+250	76.2%
Oregon	-310	+240	75.6%
Miami (FL)	-290	+220	74.4%
Ohio State	-260	+200	72.2%
Georgia	-230	+180	69.7%
Texas Tech	-185	+150	64.9%
Texas	-185	+150	64.9%
STRONG CONTENDERS
Texas A&M	+145	-180	40.8%
Alabama	+145	-185	40.8%
LSU	+150	-190	40.0%
Ole Miss	+165	-210	37.7%
Oklahoma	+200	-260	33.3%
SOLID CHANCES
USC	+270	-350	27.0%
Michigan	+310	-425	24.4%
Tennessee	+350	-500	22.2%
BYU	+350	-500	22.2%
Penn State	+350	-500	22.2%
Florida	+400	-550	20.0%
LONGSHOTS
SMU	+440	-650	18.5%
Louisville	+460	-700	17.9%
Utah	+490	-700	16.9%
Washington	+500	-750	16.7%
Boise State	+600	-1000	14.3%
Missouri	+700	-1250	12.5%
Kansas State	+700	-1500	12.5%
Clemson	+700	-1500	12.5%
Auburn	+700	-1250	12.5%
Iowa	+700	-1250	12.5%
South Carolina	+800	-2000	11.1%
Virginia	+850	-2000	10.5%
Houston	+900	-2000	10.0%
Pittsburgh	+900	-2000	10.0%
UTSA	+1000	-3000	9.1%
DEEP LONGSHOTS
Navy	+1100	-3000	8.3%
UNLV	+1100	-4000	8.3%
TCU	+1200	-4000	7.7%
Virginia Tech	+1200	-5000	7.7%
Army	+1200	-5000	7.7%
James Madison	+1200	-4000	7.7%
South Florida	+1200	-4000	7.7%
Arizona	+1300	-5000	7.1%
Memphis	+1300	-5000	7.1%
NC State	+1400	-7000	6.7%
Vanderbilt	+1400	-5000	6.7%
San Diego State	+1400	-7000	6.7%
Arizona State	+1500	-7000	6.2%
New Mexico	+1600	-10000	5.9%
North Dakota State	+1600	-10000	5.9%
Oklahoma State	+1700	—	5.6%
Georgia Tech	+1900	—	5.0%
Kentucky	+1900	—	5.0%
Florida State	+1900	—	5.0%
Tulane	+1900	—	5.0%
East Carolina	+1900	—	5.0%
Kansas	+2000	-7000	4.8%
Texas State	+2000	-10000	4.8%
Baylor	+2200	-10000	4.3%
California	+2200	-10000	4.3%
Illinois	+2200	-10000	4.3%
Wisconsin	+2200	-10000	4.3%
Fresno State	+2200	-10000	4.3%
UCLA	+2700	-10000	3.6%
Nebraska	+2700	-10000	3.6%
UCF	+2700	-10000	3.6%
Minnesota	+2700	-10000	3.6%
West Virginia	+2700	-10000	3.6%
Mississippi State	+3000	—	3.2%
Old Dominion	+3000	—	3.2%
Air Force	+3000	—	3.2%
Hawaii	+3500	—	2.8%
Duke	+4000	—	2.4%
Wake Forest	+5000	—	2.0%
Arkansas	+5500	—	1.8%
Washington State	+5500	—	1.8%
Liberty	+5500	—	1.8%
North Carolina	+6500	—	1.5%
Cincinnati	+6500	—	1.5%
Florida Atlantic	+6500	—	1.5%
Northwestern	+7000	—	1.4%
Colorado	+7500	—	1.3%
Troy	+7500	—	1.3%
Syracuse	+8000	—	1.2%
Iowa State	+8000	—	1.2%
Maryland	+8000	—	1.2%
Marshall	+8000	—	1.2%
Utah State	+8000	—	1.2%
Toledo	+8000	—	1.2%
North Texas	+8000	—	1.2%
Temple	+8000	—	1.2%
Western Kentucky	+10000	—	1.0%
Miami (OH)	+10000	—	1.0%
Western Michigan	+10000	—	1.0%
Wyoming	+10000	—	1.0%
Louisiana	+10000	—	1.0%
Jacksonville State	+10000	—	1.0%
Tulsa	+10000	—	1.0%
Colorado State	+15000	—	0.7%
Louisiana Tech	+15000	—	0.7%
Oregon State	+15000	—	0.7%
Michigan State	+17500	—	0.6%
Nevada	+17500	—	0.6%
Central Michigan	+17500	—	0.6%
Ohio	+17500	—	0.6%
Arkansas State	+20000	—	0.5%
South Alabama	+20000	—	0.5%
Appalachian State	+20000	—	0.5%
Stanford	+22500	—	0.4%
Rice	+22500	—	0.4%
Kennesaw State	+22500	—	0.4%
Boston College	+25000	—	0.4%
Purdue	+25000	—	0.4%

Odds as of July 1st, 2026 at FanDuel. Bet on teams to make or miss the CFP at our top college football betting apps.

The odds show clear tiers. Notre Dame sits alone at the top at -750, or about an 88% chance. The new top-12 at-large rule helps the Irish, and so does a friendly schedule.

The next tier is loaded. Indiana (-320), Oregon (-310), Miami (-290), Ohio State (-260), and Georgia (-230) all sit above 69%. Texas Tech (-185) and Texas (-185) round out the favorites.

After that, things tighten up fast. Texas A&M (+145) is close to a coin flip. Alabama (+145) and LSU (+150) are slight underdogs to make it, a surprise for two big SEC names.

The expanded format keeps plenty of teams in the mix. With seven at-large spots up for grabs, the battle inside the SEC and Big Ten should be a grind all year.

Penn State at +350 stands out. The Nittany Lions missed the field last year and open in the middle of the pack. Keep an eye on that number once the season starts.

The graph above tracks the average odds to make the CFP playoff across major sportsbooks.

Jul. 1: Missouri drifts from +600 to +700 to make the field. Star running back Ahmad Hardy’s status for 2026 is in doubt after an offseason injury. Coach Eli Drinkwitz says a return timeline is still weeks away. Hardy ran for 1,649 yards last season, second-most in the FBS.
June 17: Texas Tech slides from its -395 open to -185 at FanDuel. The Red Raiders lose top transfer QB Brendan Sorsby to an NCAA gambling case, and he heads to the NFL supplemental draft.
Apr. 17: Notre Dame opens as the runaway favorite to make the field at -725. Texas Tech sits a surprising second at -395, with Indiana and Miami (both -295) right behind.

How the 12-Team Playoff Works

The field still takes 12 teams. The four highest-ranked teams get the top seeds and a first-round bye. The other eight play in the first round, with the top seeds hosting on campus.

The five automatic bids go to the four Power Four champions plus the top-ranked Group of Six team. Seven at-large spots fill out the rest. Notre Dame is in line for one of those if it finishes in the top 12.

Want the full bracket picture? Check out our 2026 CFP bracket projections for seeding and matchups.

Indiana enters as the defending champ after a perfect 16-0 run and a 27-21 win over Miami. The Hoosiers will try to become the first repeat champ since Georgia in 2022 and 2023. With this many contenders, expect a few first-time teams to crash the party again.

CFP Qualification History

The playoff has set 12 fields since 2014. Alabama leads the way with nine trips. Here’s every team with more than one CFP appearance, plus titles won.

Team	CFP Appearances	Titles
Alabama	9	3
Ohio State	7	2
Clemson	7	2
Georgia	5	2
Oklahoma	5	0
Michigan	3	1
Notre Dame	3	0
Oregon	3	0
Indiana	2	1
Texas	2	0
Washington	2	0

Sixteen more teams have made it once: Florida State, Michigan State, LSU, Cincinnati, TCU, Boise State, Arizona State, Penn State, Tennessee, SMU, Texas Tech, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Miami (FL), Tulane, and James Madison. LSU is the only one of those that won it all, back in 2019.

College Football Playoff FAQ

Who is favored to make the College Football Playoff?

Notre Dame is the favorite to make the field at -750, about an 88% chance. Indiana (-320), Oregon (-310), and Miami (-290) sit right behind.

How do teams qualify for the 12-team College Football Playoff?

Five bids are automatic: the four Power Four champions plus the top Group of Six team. Seven at-large spots fill out the field. Notre Dame can grab one with a top-12 finish.

Which team has the most College Football Playoff appearances?

Alabama. The Crimson Tide have made 9 of the 12 playoffs. Ohio State and Clemson are next with 7 each.

Who won the last College Football Playoff?

Indiana. The Hoosiers went 16-0 and beat Miami 27-21 for their first national title.

Archived CFP Odds:

Brady Trettenero

Lead NHL & NCAAF Editor

Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.

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