Early NFL Props to Target for Week 5 – Rhamondre Stevenson, Chris Olave & More

• Early NFL Week 5 player props offer solid value with defenses struggling against specific position groups
• Rhamondre Stevenson, Chris Olave and Jayden Daniels headline our top NFL player prop bets for Week 5
• Check out our best early NFL Week 5 player props with analysis, odds and betting picks

The defensive rankings are in after four weeks, and some clear weaknesses have emerged. When a defense ranks 32nd against the run or allows 183 receiving yards per game to wideouts, the NFL props market usually adjusts. But not always fast enough.

Our early Week 5 NFL player props target three matchups where struggling defenses meet players in good spots to exploit them. From the league’s worst run defense to a secondary giving up chunks, these NFL player prop bets offer value before the lines move.

Here are three NFL props where the matchups line up nicely.

NFL Week 5 Player Props to Target

Odds as of October 2025 at top-rated NFL betting apps.

NFL Player Prop Pick: Rhamondre Stevenson Rushing Yards

Buffalo ranks 32nd against the run, allowing 156 rushing yards per game. They’re giving up 31.75 attempts and 4.91 yards per carry to running backs. The Bills just gave up 189 rushing yards to the Saints last week. This NFL prop has clear value.

Stevenson bounced back in Week 4 with 38 yards on nine carries after fumbling twice against Pittsburgh. Coach Mike Vrabel confirmed he won’t be disciplined, and Stevenson still led Patriots backs in carries. The coaching staff still trusts him.

His efficiency metrics support this NFL player prop. Stevenson has a 90.3% positive run rate and 22.6% broken tackle rate, with 69.6% of yards coming after contact. Buffalo’s allowing 1.25 rushing touchdowns per game to backs.

The Patriots are 7.5-point road underdogs on Sunday Night Football, but Buffalo’s defensive issues should keep this competitive. The Bills have allowed at least 100 rushing yards in every game this season.

Buffalo’s given up 624 rushing yards to backs through four games. At a projected line of 32.5 yards, this feels low for a back who just ran for 38 on nine carries against a better defense. Stevenson should get more opportunities against the league’s worst run defense.

• Early Bet: Rhamondre Stevenson over 32.5 rushing yards

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NFL Player Prop Pick: Chris Olave Receiving Yards

The Giants are allowing 183.25 receiving yards per game to wide receivers. They’ve surrendered 15 receptions per game and 733 total yards to wideouts through four weeks. This NFL prop looks strong against New York’s struggling secondary.

Olave leads the Saints with 43 targets through four games, averaging 10.75 per contest. He’s seen double-digit targets in three of four games, maintaining consistent volume despite Spencer Rattler’s ups and downs. The target share makes this NFL player prop appealing.

Last week’s 20-yard performance against Buffalo was his season low, but Olave still saw six targets in a run-heavy game plan. He’s averaging 6.5 receptions with a 30.3% team target share. His 35.7% air yards share shows he’s running downfield routes, not just underneath stuff.

New York ranks 25th in pass defense, allowing 235.5 passing yards per game. The Giants have allowed 60 catches to receivers through four games. Their cornerback unit grades at 72.1, and they’ve allowed 1.5 passing touchdowns per game.

The Saints are 1.5-point home favorites, suggesting a close game with steady passing volume. At a projected O/U of 56.5 yards, this line won’t reflect Olave’s target volume against a defense allowing 183 yards per game to receivers. He’s due for positive regression after last week.

• Early Bet: Chris Olave over 57.5 receiving yards

NFL Player Prop Pick: Jayden Daniels Rushing Yards

Daniels returns from his knee injury to face a Chargers defense that’s been getting burned by mobile quarterbacks. They’ve allowed 164 rushing yards to QBs through four games, averaging 41 yards per game. Before getting hurt, Daniels was averaging 47.2 rushing yards per game. This NFL props matchup looks great.

The rookie rushed for 891 yards last season, leading all quarterbacks with 79 scrambles. That was 28 more than any other QB. Through two games in 2025, he’s averaging 4.7 yards per carry on 18 attempts. The Chargers are giving up 6.6 yards per carry to quarterbacks.

The Chargers have already allowed one rushing touchdown to quarterbacks this season. Their linebacker unit allows a 158.3 QB rating, worst on their defense. Troy Dye has allowed 100% completion rate with 59 yards given up. Coverage breakdowns create scrambling lanes.

Reports say Daniels had a productive workout Saturday and should be ready for Week 5. Washington sits at 2-2 and needs this road game. The Commanders are 2.5-point underdogs, close enough to stay competitive throughout.

With the Chargers allowing 41 yards per game to QBs, the 38.5-yard line looks beatable. Daniels averaged 52.4 rushing yards per game as a rookie, and this matchup sets up well for his return.

The rust factor coming off injury is worth considering, but his rushing ability remains his best weapon. The Chargers’ pass rush might generate pressure, but that often helps mobile quarterbacks like Daniels turn broken plays into positive gains.

• Early Bet: Jayden Daniels over 38.5 rushing yards

Brady’s Early NFL Props Record: 5-6

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