Friday College Football Picks: 3 Best Bets for Late-Night Slate (Oct. 3)

• Week 5’s Friday night college football slate features three late-night games with betting value
• Mountain West and Big 12 battles highlight the October 3 schedule with underdogs offering value
• After going 2-1 last week with TCU nearly pulling the upset, here are my three best college football bets for Friday

We went 2-1 with our Friday picks last week, and TCU came so close to pulling that outright upset that would’ve made us 3-0. The Horned Frogs lost by a field goal after leading most of the game. That’s the nature of betting moneylines: sometimes you’re inches away from glory.

This week’s Friday slate brings three late-night games with opportunities across the board. New Mexico visits San Jose State in a Mountain West opener at 7 pm PT. West Virginia travels to BYU for a Big 12 clash at 7:30 pm MT. Colorado State and San Diego State close out the night at 7:30 pm PT.

The lines have moved throughout the week, but I’ve found three spots where the value stands out. Let’s break down my best college football bets for October 3.

Friday College Football Picks: Late-Night Slate Oct. 3

All college football odds as of Oct. 3 from MGM. Get the BetMGM bonus code to tail our Friday night CFB picks.

Friday College Football Pick #1: New Mexico +2.5

The Lobos are getting points they shouldn’t be catching. New Mexico sits at 3-1 with their only loss coming at Michigan, where they competed better than the final score showed. Last week they demolished rival New Mexico State 38-20, and two weeks ago they stunned UCLA on the road as 16-point underdogs.

Jack Layne has been surgical at quarterback for the Lobos. The Idaho transfer completed 23 of 30 passes for four touchdowns against New Mexico State. He’s thrown seven touchdowns to just three interceptions this season, all three picks coming in that Michigan opener. His 69.3% completion rate ranks among the best in the Mountain West.

San Jose State’s season has been a disappointment at 1-3. They lost to Central Michigan at home in Week 1, barely beat Idaho by three as 14.5-point favorites, and just lost to Stanford despite Walker Eget throwing for 473 yards. That’s their biggest problem: they can’t convert yards into points.

The Spartans rank 132nd nationally in red zone conversions at just 66.7%. They’ve attempted only 93 rushing plays through four games. When you’re that one-dimensional and can’t punch it in from close, you’re vulnerable to road underdogs who can run the ball and control clock.

New Mexico’s defense held New Mexico State to 15 rushing yards on 30 carries last week. They’ve allowed just eight total touchdowns through four games. Scottre Humphrey gives them a ground game with 263 rushing yards, while Damon Bankston adds another dimension.

The Lobos have covered three of four games this season. San Jose State sits at 2-2 ATS. When a road team in a conference opener gets points and the resume suggests they’re the better team, I’m taking that value.

• Best Bet: New Mexico +2.5 (-110) at MGM

Friday College Football Pick #2: West Virginia/BYU Under 46.5

This total opened at 51.5 and has crashed all the way to 46.5, but there’s still value on the under. West Virginia’s offense is a complete disaster with four different quarterbacks in rotation. True freshman Khalil Wilkins gets his first road start after throwing just six passes all season.

The Mountaineers rank 99th nationally in scoring at 22 points per game. Their passing offense sits 106th at 179.4 yards per game. They’ve been outscored 89-24 in their first two Big 12 games. Rich Rodriguez publicly questioned his team’s commitment this week, saying “if you’re not all in, you need to leave.”

BYU’s defense ranks fourth nationally, allowing just 9.3 points per game. They’ve surrendered only one passing touchdown all season. The Cougars rank seventh in yards allowed (226.8), ninth against the run (76.3), and 14th against the pass (150.5).

Jay Hill’s unit held Colorado to 21 points last week. They rotate 20-plus players on defense to keep fresh legs on the field. Against a freshman quarterback making his first road start, expect constant pressure and short fields.

BYU controls tempo with their rushing attack. LJ Martin averages 7.3 yards per carry and leads the Big 12 in that category. Bear Bachmeier adds another dimension as a dual-threat quarterback. They’ll milk clock and limit possessions.

West Virginia ranks 129th in time of possession at 25:56 per game. BYU sits 14th at 33:38. That eight-minute difference translates to fewer plays and scoring opportunities. The under is 4-1 in West Virginia’s last five games.

Playing in Provo’s altitude affects visiting teams from sea level. The thin air impacts conditioning and creates more three-and-outs. BYU doesn’t need to score 35 to win this game. They’ll control pace and let their defense do the work.

• Best Bet: West Virginia/BYU Under 46.5 (-110) at MGM

Friday College Football Pick #3: Colorado State +6.5

The line opened at San Diego State -4.5 and climbed to -6.5, creating value on the Rams. Colorado State made a quarterback change to Jackson Brousseau, who completed 72.5% of his passes for 266 yards in relief duty. That’s a massive upgrade from Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi’s 53.7% completion rate.

Jay Norvell handed play-calling duties to Matt Mumme, son of Air Raid pioneer Hal Mumme. This offensive overhaul showed flashes against Washington State. They managed 188 yards passing in a hostile environment despite the loss.

San Diego State’s defense looks impressive allowing 9.8 points per game, but context matters. Two of their three wins came against Stony Brook and Northern Illinois. Their signature win was a 34-0 shutout of California, who’s proven to be one of the worst offenses in college football.

The Aztecs struggled to beat Northern Illinois 6-3 last week. Jayden Denegal threw for just 110 yards with two interceptions. Lucky Sutton managed only 88 rushing yards. When you can’t score on teams like NIU, covering touchdown spreads becomes difficult.

Colorado State’s ground game remains their strength. Jalen Dupree averages 5.0 yards per carry with 267 yards. Lloyd Avant adds 209 yards at 7.0 per pop. Against San Diego State’s defense that allows 4.5 yards per carry, the Rams can control clock.

The Aztecs rank 112th in passing yards (168.3) and 94th in scoring (23.8 points). They convert just 33.3% of third downs, ranking 114th nationally. The Rams haven’t won in San Diego since 2016, but recent meetings have been close. CSU took the last matchup 22-19 at home in 2023.

A key betting trend: Mountain West road underdogs getting six or more points have covered at a 62% clip over the past three seasons. The desperate 1-3 Rams need this game to salvage their season. San Diego State sits pretty at 3-1 and could be vulnerable to a letdown.

• Best Bet: Colorado State +6.5 (-115) at MGM