Lions vs Chiefs Prediction, Picks, Trends & Betting Lines for Sunday Night Football

• The Lions are 2.5-point road underdogs against the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football in Week 6
• Detroit (4-1) has won four straight while Kansas City (2-3) seeks to avoid falling below .500
• Check out my Lions vs Chiefs prediction and picks below, plus the latest betting odds

The Chiefs aren’t used to being in this position. After dropping three of their first five games, Kansas City sits at 2-3 and faces a red-hot Lions team riding a four-game winning streak.

Detroit brings the NFL’s highest-scoring offense to Arrowhead, averaging 34.8 points per game. But they’ll do it with a secondary that’s basically held together with duct tape.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20 pm ET from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, with NBC providing the broadcast coverage.

Lions vs Chiefs Prediction and Picks

The injury reports tell the story here. Kansas City enters completely healthy with all 11 players who were on the injury report cleared to play. Detroit? They’re down to practice squad guys at cornerback.

The Lions ruled out both starting corners – Terrion Arnold (shoulder) and D.J. Reed (IR). Then Saturday, they lost nickelback Avonte Maddox (hamstring). That leaves Amik Robertson and Rock Ya-Sin as their only healthy corners on the active roster.

It gets worse. Both starting safeties Brian Branch (ankle) and Kerby Joseph (knee) are game-time decisions. Left tackle Taylor Decker is out for the second straight week, and his backup Giovanni Manu got placed on IR Saturday. Dan Skipper, who started the season on the practice squad, gets the start protecting Jared Goff’s blind side.

Statistical Matchup

Andy Reid is 14-2 straight up after losses in his last 16 games. Patrick Mahomes, who dealt with a groin issue all week but practiced fully, faces a Lions defense missing potentially every starter in their secondary. Xavier Worthy cleared the injury report after missing Thursday’s practice with shoulder and ankle problems.

The sharp money pushed this line from Chiefs -2 to -2.5. According to our NFL public betting splits, 93% of the money is on Detroit +2.5. When the public pounds a small underdog this heavily and the line moves the opposite direction, it’s usually a red flag.

Mahomes threw for 318 yards against Jacksonville last week. Against this depleted secondary, he could hit 350+. The Chiefs getting all their playmakers healthy while Detroit’s defense falls apart creates too much value to ignore.

• Pick: Chiefs -2.5 or Better (-110)

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Over/Under Best Bet

This game has the ingredients for a shootout. Detroit scored 161 points during their four-game winning streak, averaging 40.3 points in that span. They’re converting 76% of red zone trips into touchdowns.

The Chiefs defense isn’t the lockdown unit from previous years. They’re allowing 5.7 yards per play against teams averaging 5.6. They’ve allowed 21.4 points per game and rank 13th in scoring defense.

Sharp money drove this total from 48.5 to 52.5+. Our betting splits show 76.4% of the handle on the over. With Detroit’s entire secondary basically on crutches and Kansas City’s offense getting healthy, expect fireworks. This feels like a “last team with the ball wins” type of game.

• Pick: Over 52.5 (-110)

Lions vs Chiefs Trends

The trends paint a mixed picture, but Kansas City’s struggles after allowing big offensive games stand out.

Key ATS Trends

• Chiefs are 1-11 ATS in last 12 after allowing 30+ points (they gave up 31 to Jacksonville)
• Chiefs are 1-5 ATS vs teams with winning records in last 6
• Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 October games
• Lions are 5-1 ATS in last 6 on grass
• Lions are 4-0 ATS vs teams with losing records

Total Trends

• Over is 4-0 in Lions’ last 4 October games
• Over is 3-0-1 in Lions’ last 4 after 350+ total yards
• Under is 4-0 in Chiefs’ last 4 Week 6 games
• Under is 4-1 in Chiefs’ last 5 Sunday games after MNF

Head-to-Head Trends

Recent meetings between these teams have been high-scoring affairs. The over is 5-1 in the last six Lions-Chiefs matchups. That’s a powerful trend supporting our over pick.

Look at their recent history: Detroit won 21-20 in 2023 (under 52.5), but that’s the only under in recent memory. Kansas City won 34-30 in 2019 (over 54.5), the Chiefs dominated 45-10 in 2015 (over 45), and Detroit crushed KC 48-3 back in 2011 (over 45).

The one under came last year when Detroit’s defense was at full strength. This time? The Lions are missing their entire starting secondary. That’s a recipe for points.

The Chiefs’ poor ATS record after allowing 30+ points is concerning, but that trend assumes a healthy opponent. This Lions defense is anything but healthy.

Lions vs Chiefs Betting Lines

The line opened at Chiefs -2 but sharp action pushed it to -2.5. Some books briefly touched -3 before buyback brought it down. Only play Kansas City if the line stays below 3.

The total rocketed from 48.5 to 52.5+ on professional money. That’s a massive move signaling sharp bettors expect points.

Odds as of October 12 at top NFL betting sites. Shop around for the best Lions vs Chiefs betting lines.