Bills vs Falcons Picks & Closing Odds
By Eric Rosales in NFL News
Published:
- The Buffalo Bills are 4.5-point road favorites vs the Atlanta Falcons on MNF
- Buffalo is 0-3-0 against the spread in their last three games
- Keep reading for my Bills vs Falcons picks and predictions, plus closing odds
Dealt their first loss of the season in a home upset, the Buffalo Bills (4-1, 2-3-0 ATS) try to turn their fortunes around on the road as they visit the Atlanta Falcons (2-2, 2-2-0 ATS) tonight on Monday Night Football.
The books seem to feel like Buffalo’s 23-20 loss to New England was a blip on the radar for a team that’s still the betting favorite in the 2026 Super Bowl odds, as they’re pegged as a road favorite in the NFL odds against a Falcons team that’s alternated wins and losses through its its first four games,
Kickoff is set for 7:15pm ET from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, with ABC providing the broadcast coverage.
Bills vs Falcons Closing Lines
At the time of publication, the Bills were -205 favorites (or shorter) with the Falcons listed as long as +180. The spread was sitting at Buffalo -3.5. The game total could be found at in the 49.5-50.5 point range.
*The interactive table above will automatically update as the NFL betting odds move over the course of the day.
Bills vs Falcons Line Movement
There’s been some pretty noticeable movement since the opening Week 6 NFL odds, where the Buffalo was billed as high as a 5.5-point favorite.
You don’t have to look far for variety, as the spread has been shaved by as much as two points to Bills -3.5, and everywhere along the way, like where we found it at DraftKings at 4.5.
That might have a lot to do with that fact the Bills have played down to its most recent competition, failing to cover the spread in three straight games.
Atlanta also happens to boast a defense that’s allowed the fewest yards per game, and fewest passing yards per contest.
The moneyline has been a little less volatile, with Atlanta settling in mostly at the +170 range, from as long as +200, while the Bills are at -210, from as short as -250.
The total has stayed roughly around 50 points, give or take a half-point either way.
The NFL public betting percentages are all Buffalo, with 94% of the bets and 95% of the money on the Bills to win outright. A large 73% of the bets are on them to cover, but the majority of the money, 55%, is on the Falcons at 4.5 points.
The public believes these teams will cash the Over, with 65% of the bets and 66% of the money calling for the score to top 50.5 points.
BUF vs ATL Betting Trends
While Buffalo has failed to cover the spread in three straight, they are 4-1-0 against the spread in their last five games following a loss. They have also outright won seven of their last eight after dropping a game.
The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven games as underdogs against AFC opponents. Atlanta is also just 5-14-0 ATS in their last 19 as an underdog.
Each of the Falcons’ last nine home games against AFC opponents has cashed the Under, while the Under has gone 17-9-0 in Buffalo road games going back to 2022.
Bills vs Falcons Picks & Prediction
- Bills -4.5 (-118 at DraftKings)
Even as the third-highest scoring team currently in the NFL, the Bills haven’t really cut it loose and torn up an opponent like they can.
Save for maybe the Jets game, each of their other four opponents were within striking distance in the fourth quarter or leading, and that includes so-so competition in the Dolphins and Saints.
Josh Allen has only thrown for 300+ yards in a game once, and it was needed in the comeback win over the Ravens, but other than that, he’s happily taken what the defenses are offering, and leaning on the no. 2-ranked rush attack in the NFL.
Atlanta’s Michael Penix Jr is coming off his first 300-yard passing game of the season in a 34-27 win over Washington, while talented RB Bijan Robinson is averaging 4.9 yards a carry.
He ranks inside the Top 25 in rushing, despite being the lone back in that group that’s only played four games.
Atlanta is coming off a bye, but even the rest and home field won’t help them in a level-up performance against the reigning MVP.
The Falcons have beaten Marcus Mariota and JJ McCarthuy in their wins, while also being shut out by Bryce Young and the Panthers, and dropping a Week 1 decision to Baker Mayfield and the Bucs.
The Bills have been a favorite in all but one game this season, and this is the shortest line they’ve faced.
I like Allen and company to get this Super Bowl-train back on track, curbing any speculation of being a title favorite (for now) with a dominant win.
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Sports Writer & Editor
Having worked in and around sports since 1997, Eric is truly a knowledgeable expert. The two-time journalism grad specializes in all things NBA and NFL. From TSN.ca to CTV's Olympic Broadcast Consortium, Eric's work has appeared in local and national publications alike.
