Will Bill Belichick Leave UNC Before November? Odds Say No

Updated: October 16, 2025 at 1:51 am EDT

Published: October 15, 2025

Sep 13, 2025; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Bill Belichick before the game at Kenan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Bill Belichick has just a 16% chance of leaving UNC before November 1st on Kalshi
The Tar Heels are 2-3 and have been outscored 120-33 against Power 4 teams
Below, see why the buyout numbers make an October exit unlikely

Will Bill Belichick leave UNC before November? Kalshi has released a prediction market on the embattled coach’s immediate future, and the numbers suggest he’s staying put.

The market currently gives Belichick just a 16% chance of leaving before November 1st. That’s down from around 40% in early October, when exit strategy reports first surfaced.

Let’s dive into the updated odds and break down what’s really happening in Chapel Hill.

Bill Belichick Leaving UNC Odds

Outcome	Implied Probability
Leaves Before Nov 1	16%
Stays Through Oct 31	84%

The market shifted drastically after Belichick and Athletic Director Bubba Cunningham both issued statements on October 8th denying buyout discussions. Belichick called the reports “categorically false” and said there’s “zero truth” to rumors about him trying to leave.

Odds as of October 15 at Kalshi. Grab a Kalshi promo code to place a wager. The market resolves to “Yes” if Belichick leaves or announces he will leave before November 1, 2025.

Why Belichick Probably Can’t Leave

The financial situation makes an October departure nearly impossible for both sides.

Buyout Structure

Scenario	Cost
Belichick Quits	$1 million owed to UNC
UNC Fires Belichick	$20-30 million owed to staff
Contract Guaranteed	3 years (through 2027)
Lombardi Salary	$1.5 million annually

If Belichick quits, he owes UNC $1 million in liquidated damages under his contract. That might not sound like much for a coach of his stature, but where would he go? No NFL team pursued him during the 2024 or 2025 hiring cycles. His college performance so far won’t help his case.

If UNC fires him, they’d owe approximately $20-30 million. That includes buying out Belichick, GM Michael Lombardi (who makes $1.5 million annually), and the rest of the coaching staff through December 31, 2027.

Sports law expert Martin Greenberg called Belichick’s contract structure “unprecedented.” It’s fully guaranteed for three years, then has zero guarantees for years four and five.

The only way UNC avoids the buyout is if they can fire Belichick “for cause.” That’s where the Armond Hawkins situation becomes interesting.

The Hawkins Suspension

Cornerbacks coach Armond Hawkins was suspended in early October for providing impermissible benefits to players, specifically sideline passes for family members. UNC said Hawkins remains on leave while they investigate “other potential actions detrimental to the team and University.”

North Carolina cornerbacks coach Armond Hawkins has reportedly been suspended in connection with a recent extra benefits allegation that has surfaced.

Read more below ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/6ri7paVSsU
— Keeping It Heel (@KeepingItHeel) October 8, 2025

Some have speculated this could give UNC an out to fire Belichick for cause. But that seems like a long shot. The violations would need to be serious enough to justify termination, and there’s no indication they rise to that level yet.

On-Field Performance

North Carolina’s 2-3 record doesn’t tell the whole story. The Tar Heels have lost all three Power 4 games by an average of 29 points.

UNC vs Power 4 Teams

Opponent	Result	Margin
TCU	L 48-14	-34
UCF	L 34-9	-25
Clemson	L 38-10	-28
Total Deficit	0-3	-87

They fell to TCU 48-14, UCF 34-9, and Clemson 38-10. That 87-point deficit is the worst start against Power 4 competition in program history. Against those teams, UNC ranks last in scoring offense (13.3 PPG), total offense (253 yards), and third-down conversions (26.5%).

The schedule doesn’t get easier immediately. UNC faces Cal on Friday as 10.5-point underdogs in the college football odds. They need four wins from their seven remaining games to reach bowl eligibility.

Off-Field Distractions

A WRAL report described the program as “an unstructured mess” with a divided locker room between Belichick recruits and returning players. Some transfers reportedly received preferential treatment, including reserved parking and extra tickets.

The planned Hulu documentary about Belichick’s first season was canceled. Sources told PEOPLE that Hulu’s vision “wasn’t in alignment” with the university’s.

Belichick’s 24-year-old girlfriend Jordon Hudson has been a constant sideline presence, appearing in over half the Getty Images photos from the Clemson game. UNC insiders called the situation “a little embarrassing.”

Best Bet on Belichick Staying or Leaving

The 16% probability on Kalshi’s prediction markets seems about right. The financial realities make an October exit pretty unlikely.

Belichick probably won’t pay $1 million to leave when he has no clear landing spot. UNC likely won’t pay $20-30 million to fire him unless absolutely necessary. Both sides appear to be stuck.

Bill Belichick is willing to trigger a $1M buyout with UNC if he can find a soft landing with another team or in media, per @OllieConnolly. pic.twitter.com/VfjiaVM0cs
— SleeperCFB (@SleeperCFB) October 8, 2025

Of course, things could change if the NCAA violations prove more serious than expected. Or if the on-field product gets even worse and boosters decide to foot the bill. But neither scenario seems likely before November 1st.

If you’re betting this market, I’d lean toward the “No” at 84%. Belichick should still be coaching the Tar Heels when November arrives. Whether he makes it through the entire season is another story, but for now, the money should keep everyone in place.

Brady Trettenero

Lead NHL & NCAAF Editor

Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.

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