Lions vs Commanders Player Props, Touchdown Scorer Odds, Picks & Best Bets

• The electric Detroit offense gets to feast on a porous Washington defense on Sunday afternoon
• Marcus Mariota is back under center for the Commanders due to Jayden Daniels’ elbow injury
• See all the Lions vs Commanders player props and expert picks for America’s Game of the Week

Losers of four straight, the Washington Commanders (3-6, 2-2 home, 3-6 ATS, 4-4-1 O/U) will have to do without starting QB Jayden Daniels yet again when they host the Detroit Lions (5-3, 2-2 away, 5-3 ATS, 4-4 O/U) at 4:25 pm ET on Sunday, November 9th, at Northwest Stadium.

Lions vs Commanders is America’s Game of the Week on FOX. Detroit comes in as a heavy 7.5-point road favorite in the Week 10 NFL odds. Below, I have set out the Lions vs Commanders player props (passing, rushing, receiving, touchdown-scorer) followed by my favorite DET/WSH props to target.

Lions vs Commanders Passing Props

The most dramatic line movement centers on Jared Goff’s passing-touchdown prop. He opened with a line of 1.5, with the over heavily juiced; he’s now sitting at 2.5 TD with +140 odds on the over. Similarly, confidence in his completion volume has eroded, with the over 22.5 completions moving from -105 to +115.

For Marcus Mariota, the market clearly anticipates heavy reliance on his mobility. While his passing-touchdown over moved marginally from +160 to +145, the real story lies in his rushing props. The dramatic swing from +120 to -133 on his 5.5 rushing attempts indicates overwhelming expectation for designed runs and scrambles.

DET vs WSH Rushing Props

David Montgomery’s workload projection has increased significantly, with the over on 10.5 rushing attempts moving from -118 to -149. His backfield partner, Jahmyr Gibbs, still has the highest volume prop, though, at 14.5 with the over juiced at -133.

Mariota’s presence under center inevitably leads to a more run-heavy approach from the Commanders, but their two main RBs – Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Chris Rodriguez Jr – have rushing-attempt lines of just 8.5 and 6.5, respectively.

Lions vs Commanders Receiving Props

Sharp money has targeted Detroit’s reception props aggressively. Amon-Ra St Brown’s 7.5 receptions line saw the over odds shift from -154 to -105, while Sam LaPorta experienced an even more dramatic move from -161 to +125 on over 4.5 receptions. This market resistance suggests oddsmakers may have initially overvalued their target shares.

For Washington, Zach Ertz maintains expensive -161 odds for over 3.5 receptions.

DET vs WSH Touchdown Scorer Props

Detroit’s premier weapons, Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown, have seen their odds lengthen slightly from opening marks of -180 and -165 respectively, creating marginally better value. David Montgomery presents solid value at +112, improving from his -105 opener.

The most significant movement belongs to Washington players. Marcus Mariota’s anytime touchdown odds have been slashed from +600 to +383, reinforcing the dual-threat expectation. Chris Rodriguez Jr. has experienced similar movement from +500 to +305, suggesting he’s become a trendy goal-line vulture candidate.

Best Player Prop Bets for Lions vs Commanders: Expert Picks

Pick #1: Marcus Mariota Over 5.5 Rushing Attempts (-110)

The sharpest action in the market centers on Mariota’s ground game. As 8-point underdogs facing a Lions defense with 28 sacks this season, the Commanders will likely trail and face consistent pass-rush pressure. This combination naturally leads to scrambles, bootlegs, and called quarterback runs to maintain drives and create explosive plays.

Mariota has played three full games this season, exceeding 5.5 rush attempts twice – against the better pass-rush teams (Raiders, Chiefs) – and staying under in one (Falcons). Detroit’s pass rush will be the best he’s seen yet.

Pick #2: David Montgomery Over 10.5 Rushing Attempts

Detroit’s favorable game script points toward heavy utilization of their power running back. As 7.5-point road favorites, the Lions project to play with the lead, particularly in the second half. This scenario historically favors physical runners like Montgomery, who serves as Detroit’s designated clock-killer and short-yardage specialist.

While Jahmyr Gibbs handles explosive plays and passing downs, Montgomery dominates between-the-tackles situations and goal-line work.