Iowa vs USC Prediction, Picks, Odds & Trends – Week 12 Big Ten Showdown

• Iowa is a 6.5-point underdog at USC in Saturday afternoon Big Ten action
• The Hawkeyes just lost 18-16 to Oregon on a last-second field goal
• See below for my Iowa vs USC prediction, pick and betting trends for Saturday, Nov 15

The Big Ten schedule sends Iowa cross-country to face USC on Saturday, with the Trojans needing a win to keep their playoff dreams alive in the CFP bracket.

USC (7-2) can’t afford any slip-ups with Oregon and UCLA still on deck. The Hawkeyes (6-3) are fresh off a crushing 18-16 loss, where Oregon kicked the game-winning field goal with three seconds left.

Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET from Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum with the Big Ten Network handling the broadcast.

Iowa vs USC Predictions

• Winner Prediction: USC
• Spread Prediction: Iowa +6.5
• Total Prediction: Under 49

My Iowa vs USC prediction starts with a key fact: Iowa has lost three games this season by a combined 11 points, all to ranked teams. They held Indiana to 20 points. They took Oregon to the wire. This team keeps it close.

But now they’re traveling two time zones west after playing in 30-degree weather last week. Saturday’s forecast in LA calls for 75-80 degrees with rain. While the rain could help Iowa’s ground game, the 45-degree temperature swing and cross-country travel after an emotional loss will prove challenging.

USC’s offense gets all the headlines, and rightfully so. They lead the nation with 7.50 yards per play and rank second in total offense at 503.2 yards per game. QB Jayden Maiava has 25 deep completions this year, second-most in college football.

Iowa vs USC Key Stats

But there’s reason to pump the brakes on USC when making your prediction. Iowa allows just a 25 NFL passer rating on deep passes, which is fourth-best in the country. For comparison, simply throwing the ball into the ground every play would get you a 39.6 rating.

The Hawkeyes have given up exactly one deep completion in their last three games. Phil Parker’s defense employs quarters coverage, making teams work underneath all day long. They’re third nationally at preventing yards after catch.

Iowa’s best chance to score is by running the ball. Their offensive line has a 93.9 grade per PFF, which is nine points higher than any other team in the country. USC’s run defense is ranked 115th in yards before contact, allowing almost two yards before a defender makes a tackle.

The Trojans are a different animal at home, though. They’re averaging 262 more yards per game at the Coliseum than on the road. They’ve won all five of their home games, scoring three more touchdowns per game than their opponents on average.

USC showed defensive improvement last week, holding Northwestern to 28 rushing yards and just 3 points after halftime. Lincoln Riley knows his defense needs to step up with the playoffs on the line.

Weather is the true wild card for my Iowa vs USC prediction. Rain is expected, but winds should stay under 15 MPH. If winds pick up above that threshold, USC’s passing attack takes a major hit.

Iowa’s offense has been misleading this year. Their points per game look decent, but that includes defensive touchdowns and punt returns. The actual offensive production remains frighteningly below average, especially on the road.

Iowa vs USC Picks

• Expert Pick: Iowa +6.5 (-110)

FANDUEL SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Bet $5 & Get $150 in Bonus Bets if Your Bet Wins

Must be 21+. T&C Apply. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

LOCK IN PROMO

SIGNUP PROMO

BET $5
GET $150

BET NOW

I’m picking the Trojans to win the game for my Iowa vs USC prediction, but I’m taking the +6.5 points with the Hawkeyes. This Week 12 Big Ten matchup sets up perfectly for the underdog to stay within the number.

The Hawkeyes’ elite offensive line, paired with USC’s subpar run defense, creates a path to ball control. If Iowa establishes the run early Saturday, they’ll shorten the game and keep this close throughout.

Sharp money agrees with this Iowa vs USC pick. The Hawkeyes have just 10% of moneyline tickets but command 25% of the handle. That means big bettors are backing Iowa while the public pounds USC. I’m not as confident of an Iowa upset, but I will gladly take the points.

Iowa is 5-0 ATS following a straight-up loss and 4-0-1 ATS against teams with winning records. USC is just 1-4 ATS after wins of 20+ points, just like their 21-point victory over Northwestern last week.

I’m also playing the under for my Iowa vs USC pick. The public loves points with 71.1% of tickets on the over, but 51% of the money has come in on the under. When sharp money fades the public like this, it’s worth taking notice.

Both teams excel in the red zone—Iowa at 91.9% and USC at 93.3%. That means fewer turnovers but more field goals than touchdowns when there are good defenses involved. This should keep the total shy of 50 and fall just under the current 48.5 number.

Iowa vs USC Odds

The Iowa vs. USC odds have settled back down at the opening line of USC -6.5 after reaching -7 at several books during the week. The buy-back on the underdog shows respect for the Hawkeyes despite the cross-country travel.

The moneyline is an interesting bet for Saturday, November 15. A $20 bet on Iowa at +192 pays out $38.40, while a bet on USC at -235 only pays out $8.51. That risk-reward makes it worth considering a small Iowa moneyline sprinkle.

CAESARS SPORTSBOOK

Bet $1 & Double Your Winnings On Your First 20 Wagers!

LOCK IN PROMO

CODE: SBD20X

CODE: SBD20X

SIGNUP PROMO

DOUBLE YOUR
WINNINGS

ON YOUR FIRST 20 WAGERS!

CLAIM OFFER

Odds as of November 15th at Caesars Sportsbook. Bet on CFB Week 12 with the Caesars Sportsbook promo code.

Iowa vs USC Betting Trends

The Iowa vs. USC betting trends point towards Iowa staying within the spread on Saturday.

Key ATS Trends:

• Iowa: 5-0 ATS in last 5 following a straight-up loss
• Iowa: 4-0-1 ATS vs teams with winning records
• Iowa: 4-0-1 ATS after allowing 200+ rushing yards
• USC: 1-4 ATS after wins of 20+ points
• USC: 5-12 ATS in last 17 following any straight-up win

Total Trends:

• Under is 9-2 in Iowa’s last 11 games on grass
• Over is 7-0 in Iowa’s last 7 after allowing 200+ rushing yards
• Over is 13-3 in USC’s last 16 after allowing less than 170 passing yards

Iowa’s track record as an underdog, combined with USC’s struggles after big wins, makes the Hawkeyes the right side for Saturday, Nov 15.