NFL Wild Card Predictions: Computer Score Projections, Expert Picks & Upset Analysis

• Our computer model projects two outright NFL upsets this Wild Card weekend
• My best bet is Under in 49ers vs Eagles on Sunday afternoon
• See my NFL Wild Card weekend predictions, upset picks, and best bets below

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Wild Card weekend is finally here, and the playoff field is as wide open as we’ve seen in years. Five teams that lost 11+ games last season made the postseason, and three worst-to-first division winners are in the mix.

The computer model projects two outright upsets this weekend, and I’m backing both of them. My best bet comes in Sunday’s 49ers-Eagles clash, while my upset picks target two betting underdogs getting disrespected by the market.

Below you’ll find NFL Wild Card weekend predictions and score projections for all six games, plus the analysis behind my best bet and upset picks.

NFL Wild Card Weekend Predictions

The computer projects two razor-thin games this weekend. The Jaguars are favored to win 23.1-23.0, essentially a coin flip. The 49ers are projected to pull off the upset 19.9-18.6.

The model locked in Jacksonville early when they opened as underdogs. The line has since flipped to make them -110 favorites, but there’s still value backing them. The 49ers remain live dogs at +225.

For contrast, the model has the Rams winning by 17.1 points, the weekend’s largest projected margin. I’m also hammering the under in that 49ers-Eagles clash.

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NFL Wild Card Best Bet: 49ers vs Eagles Under 44.5

• Under 44.5 (-110)

Brady Trettenero

Sports Betting Dime • January 10, 2026 at 6:16pm

Pick

Odds

Under +44.5

Over/Under

NFL • San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles

-110 on Bet365

SCHEDULED • 01/11/2026

See all 1 picks

Betslip #1768068969183-481c-730

The total opened at 46.5 and has dropped two full points to 44.5. Sharp money is hammering the under, and I believe there is still some value left.

Eight of the Eagles’ last nine games went under. Philadelphia is 6-13 to the under at home since the start of 2024. The 49ers are even more extreme in playoff road games against NFC opponents, with seven straight games staying under.

The Eagles’ defense just held opponents to 10 points per game over their last three contests. They’ve allowed zero passing touchdowns during that stretch and rank first in the NFL in passing touchdown rate allowed. Vic Fangio’s scheme runs man coverage at a 42 percent rate while allowing a league-low 75.2 passer rating.

The Philadelphia Eagles defense the last two seasons under Vic Fangio:

🏈 1st in opponent points per game (18.3)

🏈 1st in defensive efficiency (68.0)

🏈 1st in net yards per attempt (5.7)

🏈 2nd second in opponent yards per play (4.9)

🏈 2nd in yards per game (296.9)… pic.twitter.com/5qBnjQEE3A

— Chase Senior (@Chase_Senior) January 8, 2026

That spells trouble for Brock Purdy, who’s thrown just one touchdown pass in six career playoff games. San Francisco wins playoff games by limiting mistakes and playing field position, not by lighting up scoreboards. The 49ers scored 11.6 points per game against top-5 scoring defenses this season.

On the other side, the Eagles’ offense has been a disaster. Kevin Patullo’s unit ranks 19th in passing yards per game and leads the league in offensive three-and-outs. Philadelphia scored more than 20 points just once in their final five games. Against teams with winning records, the Eagles haven’t exceeded 19 points since Week 3.

The weather adds another layer. 42 degrees with 15-25 mph winds and gusts to 30 mph favors conservative playcalling. Both coaches have been to the Super Bowl and understand January football is about margins, not fireworks.

Sunday NFC road teams in wild-card games have hit the under at a 74.1 percent rate over the last 27 contests. The Eagles are on a 7-2 under run entering this game.

Expect a final score in the 23-17 or 20-17 range, which would stay comfortably under the 44.5 total.

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NFL Wild Card Upset Picks: 49ers +6

• 49ers +6 (-108)

Brady Trettenero

Sports Betting Dime • January 10, 2026 at 6:07pm

Pick

Odds

AwayPointSpread +6.5

Spread

NFL • San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles

-115 on BetRivers

SCHEDULED • 01/11/2026

See all 1 picks

Betslip #1768068438853-481c-742

The Eagles opened as 3-point favorites but have ballooned to 6-point favorites at some NFL betting apps. That creates value if you’re backing an upset, as the media narrative is about Philadelphia’s dominant defense.

San Francisco finished 7-2 both straight up and against the spread on the road this season. They’re riding four straight road wins and average 27.6 points per game away from home. The 49ers are comfortable in hostile environments and have the mental toughness to execute Kyle Shanahan’s scheme anywhere.

The coaching matchup favors San Francisco. Shanahan holds a 3-1 record when calling plays against Fangio’s defense. In single-elimination formats where game planning matters most, Shanahan’s ability to diagnose defensive looks gives the 49ers an edge.

Kyle Shanahan on whether the 49ers looked fresher now that they've finally had a normal week of practice:

"I think big time. The 3 games in the 13 days. The 3 national TV games, I think it really added up."

"We all kind of joked that it felt like we just came back from a bye." pic.twitter.com/EK1ouoUioa

— Kyle Posey (@KP_Show) January 9, 2026

Christian McCaffrey provides San Francisco’s clearest path to victory. The Eagles rank 26th in adjusted line yards and struggle with negative plays. McCaffrey rushed for 1,202 yards this season and caught 102 passes. Against a Philadelphia defense that allows more yards after contact than most playoff teams, McCaffrey’s lateral agility creates multiple scoring paths.

The 49ers defense is wounded without Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, but the Eagles offense has been historically inefficient. Philly leads the league in offensive three-and-outs. Jalen Hurts has declined as a pure passer, and the Eagles want to run the ball. However, they meet a 49ers defense that’s competent against the run when factoring in game script.

The 49ers were 7-2 ATS on the road this season and covered six straight before Week 18. Road teams are 106-83-3 ATS in wild card games since 2014. The Eagles are only 4-4 ATS at home this season.

Take the full touchdown with the 49ers on the spread, but also bet a little on their moneyline. At +225, you’re getting a team that was a few feet from the No. 1 seed, excels on the road, and matches up well against an Eagles offense that can’t be trusted.

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NFL Wild Card Upset Picks: Jaguars ML (-110)

• Jaguars ML (-110)

Brady Trettenero

Sports Betting Dime • January 10, 2026 at 6:00pm

Pick

Odds

HomeTeam

Moneyline

NFL • Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars

-110 on Bet365

SCHEDULED • 01/11/2026

See all 1 picks

Betslip #1768068012672-481c-592

The model locked in Jacksonville early when they opened as a 1-point underdog. The line has since flipped, with the Jaguars now sitting as short home favorites at -110. While this technically isn’t an underdog play anymore, the near pick’em odds tell you oddsmakers view this as a coin flip.

The Jaguars have won eight straight games, averaging 33.6 points during that stretch while outscoring opponents 259-116. Trevor Lawrence has been extraordinary, posting a 77.3 QBR (third in the NFL) over these two months. He’s accounted for 24 total touchdowns with just 5 interceptions during the winning streak.

Buffalo’s road playoff curse is very real. The Bills haven’t won a road playoff game since January 17, 1993, a span of 33 years. Josh Allen is personally 0-4 straight up in road playoff games. The Bills have lost eight consecutive playoff road games.

The Bills have NEVER won a road playoff game with Josh Allen at QB 😬

Will that change in Jacksonville? 🧐 pic.twitter.com/YJnzZMfiSd

— TSN (@TSN_Sports) January 10, 2026

The matchup matrix favors Jacksonville. Buffalo leads the NFL in rushing behind James Cook, who won the rushing title with 1,621 yards. But the Jaguars boast the league’s best run defense, allowing just 85.6 yards per game. Something has to give.

If Jacksonville forces Buffalo into obvious passing situations, they’ve got the defense to capitalize. The Jaguars rank second in the NFL with 22 interceptions and led the AFC with 31 turnovers forced. Devin Lloyd and Antonio Johnson each grabbed 5 interceptions.

Jacksonville’s mid-season trade for Jakobi Meyers transformed their passing attack. In 9 games with the Jaguars, Meyers caught 42 passes for 483 yards and 3 touchdowns. Pairing Meyers with Brian Thomas Jr. and Parker Washington gives Lawrence the weapons to attack Buffalo’s vulnerable run defense.

Trevor Lawrence and Jakobi Meyers are doing video game stuff. pic.twitter.com/fyKgTkmTxY

— Henry McKenna (@henrycmckenna) December 29, 2025

Home field advantage matters. Jacksonville is 7-2 at home this season and 2-0 against Buffalo in playoff history. Both victories came in wild card games. The Jaguars went 5-3 against playoff teams this season and are battle-tested.

You’re getting a team that’s won eight straight, playing at home, against a franchise that hasn’t won a road playoff game in 33 years. Trevor Lawrence is playing the best football of his career against a Bills team that’s 0-4 ATS as road playoff favorites under Sean McDermott.

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Wild Card Weekend Injury Report

Here are the key injury concerns heading into Wild Card weekend.

Rams @ Panthers

• Kevin Dotson, G (Rams): OUT – Ankle
• Jordan Whittington, WR (Rams): OUT – Knee
• Davante Adams, WR (Rams): Good to go – Hamstring
• Chandler Zavala, G (Panthers): OUT – Calf

The Rams will be without starting right guard Kevin Dotson, who was PFF’s third-highest-ranked guard with an 86.4 offensive grade this season.

The good news is Davante Adams returns after missing three games with a hamstring injury. Adams leads the NFL with 14 receiving touchdowns and has 8 career playoff receiving scores, most among active wideouts.

Packers @ Bears

• Dontayvion Wicks, WR (Packers): OUT – Concussion
• C.J. Gardner-Johnson, S (Bears): OUT – Concussion
• Amen Ogbongbemiga, LB (Bears): OUT – Concussion
• Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, DE (Bears): OUT – Concussion
• Rome Odunze, WR (Bears): Good to go – Foot

The Bears will be without three players due to concussions. Rome Odunze returns after a five-game absence and should revert to his No. 1 receiver role. The Packers lose Dontayvion Wicks but have Jordan Love cleared and ready.

Bills @ Jaguars

• Terrel Bernard, LB (Bills): OUT – Calf
• Maxwell Hairston, CB (Bills): OUT – Ankle
• Damar Hamlin, S (Bills): OUT – Pectoral
• Joshua Palmer, WR (Bills): QUESTIONABLE – Ankle
• Matt Prater, K (Bills): QUESTIONABLE – Quad
• Cole Van Lanen, LT (Jaguars): QUESTIONABLE – Knee

Buffalo is dealing with multiple defensive absences. Joshua Palmer didn’t practice all week and is questionable. Kicker Matt Prater is questionable after exiting Week 18 early with a quad injury. Jacksonville is relatively healthy with just left tackle Cole Van Lanen questionable.

49ers @ Eagles

• Trent Williams, LT (49ers): QUESTIONABLE – Hamstring
• Ricky Pearsall, WR (49ers): QUESTIONABLE – Knee/ankle
• Lane Johnson, RT (Eagles): QUESTIONABLE – Foot
• Dallas Goedert, TE (Eagles): Good to go – Knee

Trent Williams is questionable after practicing in limited fashion. Ricky Pearsall didn’t practice all week and is unlikely to play. Lane Johnson practiced in limited fashion all week and is questionable. Dallas Goedert returns after a one-game absence and slots back into the No. 1 tight end role.

Chargers @ Patriots

• Omarion Hampton, RB (Chargers): QUESTIONABLE – Ankle (expected to play)
• Khyiris Tonga, DL (Patriots): OUT – Foot
• Harold Landry III, LB (Patriots): QUESTIONABLE – Knee

Rookie first-round running back Omarion Hampton is expected to play despite being listed as questionable. Hampton confirmed Friday he plans to suit up and split work with Kimani Vidal. The Patriots ruled out defensive lineman Khyiris Tonga.

Texans @ Steelers

• DK Metcalf, WR (Steelers): Good to go – Returns from suspension
• Jawhar Jordan, RB (Texans): QUESTIONABLE – Ankle
• Kamari Lassiter, CB (Texans): QUESTIONABLE – Ankle/knee

DK Metcalf returns from his two-game suspension and practiced fully all week. He’ll revert to the No. 1 receiver role, which should reduce opportunities for Adam Thielen and Marquez Valdes-Scantling.

Houston’s Jawhar Jordan is questionable after missing the first two practices of the week.

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Weather Impacting Wild Card Weekend

Weather will play a factor in several Wild Card games this weekend:

Rams @ Panthers (Saturday, 4:30 PM ET)

Light rain throughout the afternoon with moderate winds gusting from sideline to sideline. Temperature around 72 degrees with 43 percent chance of precipitation. The wet conditions could make passing and kicking difficult, especially with the wind gusts.

Packers @ Bears (Saturday, 8:00 PM ET)

Cold temperatures around 33 degrees with 34 percent chance of scattered snow showers. Moderate-to-strong winds blowing from sideline to sideline with gusts up to 30 mph. The conditions will likely force both teams to rely heavily on their rushing attacks.

Bills @ Jaguars (Sunday, 1:00 PM ET)

Perfect conditions with partly cloudy skies and 60 degrees. Light winds will blow diagonally across the field. Weather will not have a significant impact on this game.

49ers @ Eagles (Sunday, 4:30 PM ET)

Clear skies with temperatures around 42 degrees. Moderate winds of 13 mph blowing from the northwest with gusts potentially reaching 25-30 mph. The sustained winds may result in some inaccurate passes and missed kicks.

Chargers @ Patriots (Sunday, 8:00 PM ET)

Cold temperatures around 32 degrees with 20 percent chance of slight snow. Light winds around 9 mph. The cold conditions will favor the home team Patriots, who are accustomed to late-season weather. Teams that play in domes are 1-14 on the road when playing in temperatures below 40 degrees.

Texans @ Steelers (Monday, 8:15 PM ET)

Cold temperatures around 34 degrees with 6 percent chance of rain. Light winds around 9 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. The cold and wind could make catching and kicking the ball problematic, especially for the Texans who play in a domed environment.