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Next Phillies Manager Odds, Predictions & Candidates to Replace Rob Thomson
By Brady Trettenero in MLB Baseball
Published:
- The Phillies fired Rob Thomson on Tuesday with the team at 9-19, tied for the worst record in baseball
- Bench coach Don Mattingly was named interim manager for the rest of the 2026 season
- Read below for the next Phillies manager odds and my prediction on who lands the job
The Phillies pulled the plug on Rob Thomson Tuesday after a 9-19 start that included 11 losses in their last 12 games. It’s a quick fall for a manager who held the highest winning percentage in franchise history since 1900 and got an extension through 2027 just this past offseason.
Bench coach Don Mattingly takes over as interim, with third-base coach Dusty Wathan bumped up to bench coach. Kalshi has already opened a market on the next permanent Phillies manager, and Mattingly is the early favorite.
Next Phillies Manager Odds
Kalshi
Alex Cora
11%
Don Mattingly
0%
Rocco Baldelli
0%
David Ross
0%
Brad Ausmus
0%
Dusty Wathan
0%
Brian Snitker
0%
Scott Servais
0%
David Bell
0%
Ron Washington
0%
Above are the next Phillies manager odds at Kalshi. Mattingly is sitting at 40¢ Yes, giving him a 31% implied probability to keep the job permanently. Every other candidate is bunched at 12¢ Yes (~6% implied), so it’s basically Mattingly vs. the field.
Names tied at 12¢ include Alex Cora, Brad Ausmus, Brian Snitker, David Bell, David Ross, Dusty Wathan, Rocco Baldelli, Ron Washington, and Scott Servais. Those numbers should move once we see how the team responds to Mattingly.
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Odds as of April 28 at Kalshi. New customers can claim the Kalshi promo code and get a bonus to bet on MLB futures.
Top Candidates for the Next Phillies Manager Job
Here’s a closer look at the three names that actually matter on this board.
Don Mattingly
Donnie Baseball is 65 with 14 seasons of big-league managing experience and a career record of 889-950 (.483). The number looks underwhelming, but context matters.
He won three straight NL West titles with the Dodgers from 2013-15. He also won NL Manager of the Year with the Marlins in 2020 after guiding Miami to its first playoff appearance in 17 years.
The wrinkle is that Mattingly’s son, Preston Mattingly, is the Phillies’ general manager. That’s either a feel-good story or a conflict of interest depending on who you ask.
Alex Cora
Cora is the guy Dombrowski actually wants. The two won the 2018 World Series together in Boston, and the moment Thomson got fired, Dombrowski made an “intense” pitch to bring Cora to Philadelphia.
Cora declined for family reasons. He’s got twin sons turning nine in July, a wedding in November, and just got fired in Boston three days earlier. Multiple reports say he told the Phillies he’d reconsider in the offseason.
His résumé speaks for itself. Cora has a career 528-460 record (.534), the third-best winning percentage in Red Sox history behind only Terry Francona and Joe Cronin.
Rocco Baldelli
If Cora says no a second time, Baldelli is next in line. He’s 44, won AL Manager of the Year in 2019, and went 524-502 (.511) with four playoff appearances in seven seasons with the Twins.
Minnesota fired him last September, and he spent 2026 in a front office advisor role. He’s available right now if Philly wants to move quickly. Baldelli also fits the roster, with veterans like Harper, Schwarber, and Turner needing a manager who can handle high-expectation environments.
Next Phillies Manager Prediction
For my next Phillies manager prediction, the value on the board is Cora at 12¢. He isn’t unavailable, he’s just unavailable right now. Dombrowski hired him in Boston and made an aggressive run within 24 hours of the Red Sox firing. The Red Sox are still paying Cora through 2027, which gives Philadelphia leverage to work out a favorable deal in the offseason. That door is far from closed.
If Mattingly stabilizes the room and gets this team back to .500, he earns the right to keep the job. The upcoming schedule (Giants, Marlins, A’s, Rockies) is the soft stretch he needs to make hay. Even so, 40¢ is short on a 65-year-old interim with a career sub-.500 record who got the job partly because the top target said no.
Dusty Wathan is the dark horse worth flagging in the Phillies next manager odds. He spent nearly a decade managing in the Phillies minor league system and just got promoted to bench coach. If Mattingly doesn’t want the long-term job and Cora ends up elsewhere, Wathan is the internal fallback at 12¢.
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Brady Trettenero
Lead NHL & NCAAF Editor
Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.
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