Trump Bristles After Iran Demonstrations Kills Civilians: Trade on Odds for New US-Iran Nuclear Deal
By Paul Lebowitz in Politics News
Published:
- Iran is again enduring widespread protests with violent crackdowns killing more that 500 and nearly 11,000 arrested
- U.S. President Donald J. Trump has already warned Iran against a repeat of the carnage during the last round of protests in 2022-23
- Prediction markets are speculating on whether a new nuclear deal between the U.S. and Iran can be completed before the end of 2026
Nationwide protests continue in Iran as all 31 of the country’s provinces experience unrest amidst an ongoing communications shutdown. It has been reported that hundreds of protestors have already been killed by Iran security forces, with thousands more being arrested. US President Donald Trump has threatened to intervene and stated that leaders of Iran want to negotiate with the US.
Iran is Dealing With Intense Protests, Pressure from the US
Iran is responding forcefully to the most recent protests engulfing the country. Unlike the protests from three years ago when a young woman was detained for not wearing her hijab properly and died in police custody after alleged beatings, the current protests stem not from the country’s draconian laws as to how people can behave in public, but due to economic issues and exploding inflation.
The results, however, are the same with a harsh, multilevel response in which security forces are said to be shooting protestors, government initiated internet blackouts, phones being shut off, and mobile data unavailable.
In the aftermath of the U.S. operation in Venezuela and subsequent arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, Trump seems emboldened in aggressive foreign policy by setting red lines for Iran and warning of force. At the same time, the increasingly desperate leadership in Tehran has stated that it is ready for war, but is also willing to negotiate. The countries do not have diplomatic ties, but Iran’s Foreign Minister has been in communication with Special Envoy Steve Witkoff.
On Monday afternoon, Trump ordered 25% tariffs to be slapped on any country doing business with Iran.
Trump Leaves Room to Negotiate, Nuclear Options on the Table
As usual, Trump prefers to negotiate a deal than to go to the extreme and follow through on his hardline rhetoric. Of course, he might go with his extreme rhetoric first, then negotiate. In fact, no one can reasonably predict what he might do.
He has shied away from putting U.S. boots on the ground, but the President said he will hit “them very, very hard where it hurts.”
Iran’s nuclear ambitions and global fears surrounding them are a lingering concern. In his first term, Trump pulled out of the nuclear agreement between the countries. Now, with the Islamic Republic under siege by a restless population, the President said Iran proposed that the two countries return to the negotiating table.
Prediction markets are speculating the odds of a new U.S.-Iran nuclear deal being completed this year. Since heftier challenges are currently at the forefront for Iran, this is a backstory. But Trump could use that to his advantage to get a deal he deems favorable to the U.S., Israel, Saudi Arabia, and other Middle East allies and business partners.
Odds for New US-Iran Nuclear Deal This Year
Odds for a nuclear deal before the end of 2026 are unlikely based on the current market indications, so the perception is that a deal will not be struck.
The parameters are that if the U.S. agrees to, signs, or accepts a deal between the countries before Jan. 1, 2027, the market resolves to Yes. The source reporting the potential nuclear deal must be a reputable news organization, i.e. the New York Times, Reuters, Politico, CNN, ABC, CBS, The Washington Post, Fox News, and the like.
With the situation changing seemingly moment to moment, those who want to make a prediction can use the Kalshi promo code to get in on the action. New users can take advantage of a $10 Sign Up Bonus after completing $100 in trades on the platform.
Will the US Make a Nuclear Agreement with Iran?
The Trump preference as well as the preference of the more hawkish foreign policy people in the Republican Party (and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu) would be to strike while the Islamic Republic of Iran is reeling from its population’s discontent and decapitate the regime once and for all.
Already Trump has gone further than past U.S. administrations in confronting Iran, most notably with a drone strike in January 2020 killing Iranian Major General Qasem Soleimani. Last June, Israel killed several leaders from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and a number of nuclear scientists.
Aging Supreme Leader of Iran Ali Khamenei reportedly has a dwindling inner circle and it’s a question as to how much remaining sway he has. If the regime sees that it is facing the realistic prospect of a U.S. attack, likely carried out largely by Israel with Trump’s imprimatur, then it would be more willing to try and save itself or run out the clock on Trump’s presidency with a nuclear deal more favorable to Western powers than the last one.
Paul Lebowitz is a novelist, columnist, social commentator, and the author of eight published books on baseball – one novel and seven baseball guide/previews. He covers sports, politics, and pop culture. Paul graduated from Hunter College with a degree in English. He lives in New York City.
