See Odds for Trump to Invoke Insurrection Act Amidst Minnesota Protests
By Paul Lebowitz in Politics News
Published:
- Protests have erupted in Minnesota after an ICE agent shot and killed a woman during an altercation while she was in her vehicle
- President Trump warned of invoking the Insurrection Act if attacks on ICE agents continue
- Prediction markets are weighing whether the president will follow through on his threat and invoke the Insurrection Act
Protests in Minnesota have escalated after a second shooting involving ICE took place when an agent shot an alleged illegal immigrant accused of resisting arrest and assaulting the officer. While President Trump has threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act in the past, it has not been done by any U.S. president since President George H.W. Bush did so to quell the Los Angeles riots after the Rodney King verdict in 1992. Bush did so at the request of California Gov. Pete Wilson.
The Insurrection Act of 1907 gives the president wide latitude to act and put a stop to civil disorder, armed rebellions against the federal government, or an insurrection. Under this law, the National Guard and the U.S. Armed Forces can be deployed to end the perceived threat.
Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, the 2024 Democratic nominee for Vice President and frequent Trump antagonist and target for ridicule, has called on the president to turn down the rhetoric while asking people in his state to protest peacefully.
Trump Not Shy on Threatening to Send in Troops
Trump has frequently mused about using the military and National Guard to address protests going back to his first term. Regarding immigration, ICE operations, and citizens interfering with attempts to arrest illegal immigrants, he has made this threat in Chicago, Los Angeles, and Portland. He has yet to follow through on it.
But judging by his actions in Venezuela and that the ICE raids have been initiated in the first place, it’s clear that Trump doesn’t make idle threats without keeping the option of following through on the table.
Prediction markets currently think it is more probable than not that the president will invoke the act before March 2026. The chances grow higher for it to happen before the Trump presidency ends.
The markets are not limited to the Insurrection Act being invoked over the ongoing protests in Minnesota, but cover the remainder of Trump’s term set to end on Jan. 20, 2029.
Current Market Hedging on Insurrection Act in the Near Future
Although there are ongoing and intensifying protests in Minnesota, the current prediction market for Trump invoking the Insurrection Act before March 2026 is over 50% that he will.
It’s certainly possible that the power of Trump’s threats will be deemed sufficient to calm things down. This is especially true given recent events when he repeatedly warned Venezuela that there would be consequences if it did not come to heel on its alleged drug trafficking boats. The President then moved forward authorizing a military operation to capture and arrest its president, Nicolás Maduro. The world is currently navigating Trump’s demand that the U.S. take over Greenland as well as the potential for strikes in Iran if, ironically, their government does not stop shooting and executing protesters.
As for the long term prospects of Trump invoking the act, it’s over 60% before 2027, and even higher before he leaves office in 2029.
ICE is showing no signs of reducing its aggressiveness and is sticking to the administration’s mandate of pursuing and capturing illegal immigrants. Many protestors are categorized by the president as so-called “professional” protestors who are agitating for a grander agenda of destabilization. With that, the chance of the Insurrection Act being exercised rises incrementally with each passing day.
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Will Trump Invoke the Insurrection Act?
The protests have shown no sign of slowing despite Trump’s threat and Walz’s request for calm. Adding in that ICE is continuing its national operations unabated and the belligerence on both sides is getting worse, it’s only a matter of time before Trump says enough’s enough and he does invoke the act.
If the protests go beyond the weekend and/or there is another violent incident, expect Trump to invoke the act not just to put a stop to the current hostilities, but to send a message to others across the nation what will happen if they protest in a similar manner as is currently ongoing in Minnesota.
Paul Lebowitz is a novelist, columnist, social commentator, and the author of eight published books on baseball – one novel and seven baseball guide/previews. He covers sports, politics, and pop culture. Paul graduated from Hunter College with a degree in English. He lives in New York City.
