Expert NASCAR AutoTrader 400 Predictions & Updated Odds for Atlanta

• No practice. No qualifying laps. Pure projection and calculated aggression.
• Atlanta drafts like Daytona, but the worn surface demands real handling discipline.
• Read below for expert NASCAR AutoTrader 400 predictions and updated odds for Atlanta.

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If you read our DFS breakdown earlier this week, you already know the theme.

EchoPark Speedway is still Atlanta Motor Speedway in our hearts. It remains a 1.54-mile quad oval with 28 degrees of banking, and since the 2022 reconfiguration it races like a superspeedway. Big packs. Giant runs. Momentum swings that appear out of nowhere.

The difference is that Atlanta is narrower than Daytona. The runs develop faster, the blocks come later…and now the surface has started to wear.

Grip falls off. Mechanical balance matters more. Drivers who can manage handling while staying in the draft have more control over their destiny.

That is not to say chaos has been eliminated…it just layers skill into it.

There was no practice and qualifying was rained out. The drivers have not completed a single competitive lap, which means the starting lineup tells us almost nothing about true speed. That uncertainty influenced our DFS strategy and it also shapes how we approach the betting card…albeit in a different way.

This is still superspeedway betting. It just requires more nuance. The green flag drops at 3pm ET, so let’s get into the NASCAR odds and predictions.

NASCAR AutoTrader 400 Updated Odds

Odds available at theScore Bet as of Feb. 21, 10:04 p.m. ET. Chase Elliott is the betting favorite at +750, implying a win probability of 11.8 percent. Shop the best online sportsbooks for the top AutoTrader 400 odds.

It’s Ladder Season!

It is late February, and the air is starting to thaw. Somewhere, someone is walking into Home Depot, convincing themselves this is the year they finally clean the gutters and repaint the deck.

Which means it is officially ladder season.

At pure superspeedways, we typically spread exposure and respect randomness. Atlanta allows for slightly more conviction. Our long-run metrics matter, and so does teammate coordination. Certain drivers have proven they can consistently control races here, or at least position themselves near the front when the smoke clears.

Instead of spraying outright and hoping for variance, we are climbing.

You don’t just grab a ladder and leap directly onto the roof. You climb with intention.

Expert AutoTrader 400 Predictions

Austin Cindric

• Outright Winner (+1800, BetRivers)
• Top-5 (+300, bet365)
• Top-10 (+100, bet365)

Cindric rolls off 30th after trouble found him last weekend. That is unfortunate for him and useful for us.

We have Cindric ranked third overall in our model, which shows value relative to sportsbook positioning. We project him to finish 8.6. That projection alone creates interest in the top-10 and top-5 markets.

The Atlanta-specific data strengthens the case.

Austin Cindric – (2/20/2022)#500Winner 🏁 pic.twitter.com/cgU7sAunqE

— Front Row Racing (@row_racing) February 20, 2026

Across the six races since the reconfiguration, Cindric owns the best average running position at 10.7. He leads the second most laps per Atlanta race at 33.0, trailing only teammate Joey Logano. That is a sustained front-end presence in a drafting environment that rarely rewards consistency.

When we expand the sample to all superspeedways since the start of 2023, the profile holds. Cindric owns the second-most laps led per race at 18.9 and the third-best average running position at 14.6. He has also spent the highest percentage of laps inside the top 15 at 70.2 percent.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

• Outright Winner (+3500, Caesars)
• Top-5 (+550, bet365)
• Top-10 (+170, theScore Bet)

Stenhouse nearly found victory lane in the Daytona 500 last weekend. He finished third, technically, but did so on a wrecker. Such is superspeedway life.

He rolls off third this weekend, and we have him 12th overall in our rankings with a projected finish of 13.5. That projection may not jump off the page, but context matters. Starting near the front at Atlanta carries both risk and opportunity. You control lanes early. You also absorb the aggression.

Gave it all we had leading late in the race! Look forward to doing it again. Thanks team @NieceMotorsport 🤘 pic.twitter.com/m0LozLoqdk

— Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (@StenhouseJr) February 22, 2026

The key angle here is track time.

Stenhouse logged extra laps this weekend and briefly led late in Saturday’s Craftsman Truck race. That matters more than usual because the surface continues to evolve. Grip changes. Handling shifts. And the Cup drivers have turned exactly zero competitive laps this weekend because qualifying was rained out.

Any additional information about how the track is behaving is an edge.

Stenhouse is historically comfortable in chaotic drafting environments. He is aggressive, sometimes too aggressive, but that style plays at Atlanta. If he maintains track position and avoids becoming the focal point of late desperation blocks, he can absolutely hang around inside the top five again.

And maybe, just maybe, steal one for the boys.

Ready to lock in your Atlanta predictions? Grab a bet365 bonus code before the green flag drops.