Oscars Odds for 2026: Prediction Markets for the Closest Calls on Sunday

• The Oscars are this Sunday, March 15th, at the Dolby Theater in Hollywood at 7:00 pm ET.
• There are still a few categories that do not have a clear favorite in the prediction markets, like Best Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Animated Short Film, and Best Live Action Short Film.
• Traders and movie lovers alike can use prediction markets to back their favorites to win an Academy Award on Sunday

All of Hollywood will be turning up to the Dolby Theater this weekend for the 98th Academy Awards to see who will take home the industry’s most sought-after award, the Oscar. There is no shortage of quality this year with a full lineup of heavy hitters from 2025, such as One Battle After Another, Sinners, Marty Supreme, and Bugonia.

Previous award shows have shown some light on who is likely to win certain categories, such as Sean Penn being the favorite for Best Supporting Actor after winning awards at the Actors Awards and the BAFTAs for his role as Colonel Lockjaw. There are still a few categories that are anyone’s for the taking, including Best Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Animated Short Film, and Best Live Action Short Film.

As Hollywood’s biggest party nears, prediction markets are heating up as traders flock to these tightly contested categories.

2026 Oscars Odds – These Awards are Up for Grabs

Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another comes into the Oscars as a heavy favorite in most categories in which it has a nomination, like Best Picture, Best Supporting Actor, Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay, and Best Cinematography. Fortunately for everyone else, there are a few awards where others have a chance. Unfortunately for everyone else, most of these categories are going to be an incredibly tight race.

Right now, the 2026 Oscars odds for Best Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Animated Short Film, and Best Live Action Short Film are too close to call, with no one owning a majority of any market. Further complicating these markets is the volatility experienced around the prior award shows, often flipping the favorites.

As the start of the Oscars approaches and traders scramble to get last-minute moves in, these markets could be in for a bumpy few days.

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Oscar for Best Actor

Not even PTA’s powerhouse film could offset the public’s opinion that the academy will continue to snub Leonardo DiCaprio. The One Battle After Another star is trading at just 8% on Kalshi for Best Actor, which tracks well as he has just one Oscar to show for his eight total nominations in his career.

The real race is between Michael B. Jordan and Timothee Chalamet, who are separated by just 11%. Chalamet was the favorite on Kalshi almost from the opening of the market for his lead role in Marty Supreme. Hitting a high of 78.6% on Kalshi at his peak, Chalamet looked like the safe pick to win the Oscar for Best Actor. However, Jordan took the lead with a win at the Actors Award for his portrayal of Smoke in Sinners.

While the Actors Award win launched Jordan to a 60% market share initially, fans of Chalamet have since closed that gap. With just a few days to go, Jordan is at 48%, and Chalamet sits at 37%. Between his win and the ensemble award at the Actors Awards, Jordan might ride this newfound momentum to an Oscar for Best Actor on Sunday.

Oscar for Best Supporting Actress

Teyana Taylor may suffer the same fate as her co-star, Leonardo DiCaprio, and miss out on claiming one of the many Oscars One Battle After Another is primed to walk away with. After being the clear favorite for weeks, holding over 70% of the prediction market for almost two months, she lost her lead at the start of March. In another Actors Award surprise, Amy Madigan was the big winner that night and reclaimed the lead she briefly held to start 2026. From trailing by as much as 64% to now holding a 22% lead over Taylor, Madigan is looking to take home an Oscar this weekend.

While Madigan holds a 47% implied win probability, and Taylor is at 27%, traders can’t rule out a come-from-behind win from Wunmi Mosaku. Her win at the BAFTAs and being a part of the ensemble win at the Actors Awards will carry weight into this weekend, as voters from both of those awards have a say at the Oscars. Madigan may be riding a wave of recency bias on Kalshi because Taylor, much like the movie she was in, has been dominating the markets and is not going down without a fight.

Oscar for Best Animated Short Film

This award pits Canada’s National Film Board, SXSW, and public adoration against each other. The Girl Who Cried Pearls comes from an Oscar-nominated team with support from Canada’s National Film Board and currently has a 30% implied win probability on Kalshi. Retirement Plan checks a lot of boxes with very clean animation, a heavy-hitting story, and winning big at SXSW, but traders on Kalshi are not as keen on the movie, with it sitting at just 16%. Butterfly tells a true story of Jewish Olympic swimmer Alfred Nakache through a hand-painted animation style that is catching the eye of critics and prediction market traders, as it holds the lead at 47%.

While this award could go any direction, the Academy Award voters favor films that stick with the viewer due to their impactful story and captivating visuals, which could spell a big win for Butterfly this weekend.

Oscar for Best Live Action Short Film

Two People Exchanging Saliva has been the top pick for this award from the start, maintaining a near 45% implied win probability through awards season. However, this European short could lose valuable ground to A Friend of Dorothy, which has 25% of the market. While it might be a long shot for A Friend of Dorothy to win, it will likely steal valuable British votes from Two People Exchanging Saliva.

With these two foreign films fighting amongst themselves, Sam A. Davis’ The Singers could sneak in for the win with a united front from American film industry voters. The Singers could be a dark-horse pick on Kalshi, with just 19% of the market. However, it is hard to see Two People Exchanging Saliva relinquishing its spot at the top of the list.