Odds to Be Next Head Coach Fired in College Football – Manny Diaz, Dan Mullen or Steve Sarkisian Next to Go?

Miami head coach Manny Diaz, left, talks with Florida head coach Dan Mullen before an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Aug. 24, 2019, in Orlando, Fla. (AP Photo/John Raoux)

The 2021 coaching carousel is shaping up to be just as intriguing as the action on the field. Two high-profile coaching jobs at USC and LSU are already open, while Florida and Miami may soon have coaching vacancies.

After Washington showed Jimmy Lake the door, odds have been released on which college football coach will be fired next. Miami’s Manny Diaz and Florida’s Dan Mullen are among the favorites, while Texas’ Steve Sarkisian and UCLA’s Chip Kelly are longshots.

Who will be the next college football coach fired? Here at SBD we’ve generated our own odds for informational and entertainment purposes on who might be the next coach shown the door. Scroll below for analysis on the rest of the CFB coaching landscape!

Odds to Be Next College Football Head Coach Fired

Coach Odds
Manny Diaz (Miami) +400
Rod Carey (Temple) +400
Seth Littrell (North Texas) +500
Marcus Arroyo (UNLV) +500
Jake Spavital (Texas State) +500
Dan Mullen (Florida) +550
Doug Martin (New Mexico State) +750
Ken Niumatalolo (Navy) +800
Herm Edwards (Arizona State) +800
Geoff Collins (GA Tech) +900
Steve Addazio (Colorado State) +1000
Philip Montgomery (Tulsa) +1000
Chip Kelly (UCLA) +5000
Steve Sarkisian (Texas) +10000

Odds as of November 18th

Writing on the Wall for Manny Diaz

Miami head coach Manny Diaz is firmly on the hot seat after failing to meet expectations in his third year coaching the program. The Hurricanes are 5-5 this season and 19-15 overall in Diaz’s three year at the helm. The Diaz rumors are running rampant after Miami canned Athletic Director Blake James on Monday.

Is Diaz next in line to leave Miami after James’ departure? History suggests Diaz won’t be coaching the Canes in 2022, as Miami’s last two coaches Larry Scott and Mark Richt both didn’t last three years. This is an impatient program, and Miami’s new athletic director may want a fresh start in the coaching department.

There’s always external noise at Miami, but it’s getting even louder following a recent report that Hurricanes players will hold a roundtable Thursday to talk about the current state of the program. Once a new AD is in place at Miami, it might not take long for Diaz to get shown the door.

Miami last took the field in Week 11 against Florida State where they blew a late lead and lost 31-28 to the Seminoles. With the loss, Diaz fell to 14-13 against Power 5 opponents. Miami hosts Virginia Tech in Week 12, so an ugly performance at Hard Rock Stadium could seal Diaz’s fate.

Dan Mullen Could Bolt for NFL

Florida head coach Dan Mullen is another name to monitor in the odds to be the next coach fired in college football. Gators’ fans are calling for the firing of Mullen after Florida’s embarrassing 70-52 win over FCS Samford in Week 11. The Gators gave up a school-record 42 points in the first half, yet Mullen called it a “great win” in his post-game press conference.

The Dan Mullen era ending at Florida appears inevitable. Mullen hasn’t been able to get it done since coming to Gainesville, posting a 2-8 record in his last 10 games against Power 5 opponents. The 49-year-old head coach fired DC Todd Grantham and O-line coach Todd Hevesy last week, but it’s clear Florida’s issues run deeper.

Mullen is a great offensive mind, but he lacks key attributes required to run a college program successfully. The most prominent issue is recruiting, as Florida currently has the 23-ranked recruiting class for 2022. When asked about recruiting during the team’s struggles, Mullen infamously said “It’s not recruiting season yet.”

Mullen has flirted with the NFL in the past, and those rumors are heating up as Florida continues to struggle. According to CFB analyst Rick Neuheisel, Mullen is likely to take an NFL opportunity if he’s given one. The Gators coach has low value right now, however, so even a strong finish against Missouri and FSU won’t guarantee calls from the big league.

Sarkisian, Kelly Are Intriguing Longshots

Texas’ Steve Sarkisian and UCLA’s Chip Kelly are among the longshots to be the next college football coach fired. The Longhorns have lost five straight games for the first time since 1956, while the Bruins (6-4) have failed to live up to lofty preseason expectations in Kelly’s fourth year at the helm.

It’s hard to see Sarkisian being shown the door after just one year. Texas athletic director Chris Del Conte released a statement voicing his support for Sark following the loss to Kansas. The Longhorns have a great upcoming recruiting class, and it’s unlikely Texas shells out $21M for Sarkisian’s buyout just a year after paying Tom Herman his huge $15M buyout.

UCLA’s Kelly would be the better bet, as rumors are swirling that he may be interested in the Washington job. UCLA is going to have a ton of turnover this offseason, including the departures of QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson and RB Zach Charbonnet. The Huskies may pursue Kelly this offseason in hopes the veteran coach can help rejuvenate their offense.


The writing is on the wall for both Miami’s Diaz and Florida’s Mullen, but timing is everything. Considering the 2021 season is already a wash for both the Hurricanes and Gators, it’s more likely these programs make a coaching change at the end of the year rather than something immediate.

One coaching change that appears imminent is at Temple, where Owls coach Rod Carey has come under fire for his mistreatment of former Florida and Temple running back Iverson Clement. The four-star prospect shared on Twitter Tuesday how he was mistreated by Carey and the school’s strength coach.

The Rod Carey experiment at Temple simply hasn’t worked out, as the Owls are 4-13 in the last two years under the former Northern Illinois coach. This latest controversy could be what seals Carey’s fate at Temple. Diaz and Mullen are names to watch moving forward, but Rod Carey is the most likely college football coach to be fired next.


Brady is a passionate hockey fan and sports writer with over five years of experience specializing in digital media, plus a degree in Broadcast Journalism. His work has been published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.

Sports Writer

Brady is a passionate hockey fan and sports writer with over five years of experience specializing in digital media, plus a degree in Broadcast Journalism. His work has been published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.