Most Common March Madness First-Round Upsets

• Learn the all-time record of every seed in the first round of March Madness.
• Is the #12 over #5 upset as frequent as the media makes it out to be?
• Have #8 vs #9 matchups really been a toss-up since the field expanded in 1985? 

Everyone loves March Madness for the upsets, and there are typically an average of 7-9 of them a year. Which seeds have caused the most chaos over the history of the NCAA Tournament, which expanded to 64 teams in 1985? Find out below, as we detail the all-time record of every seed in the first round, their winning percentage, and their performance over the last five years.

This page includes data up to and including the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

Jump to: #1 Seeds vs #16 Seeds /#2 Seeds vs #15 Seeds / #3 Seeds vs #14 Seeds / #4 Seeds vs #13 Seeds / #5 Seeds vs #12 Seeds / #6 Seeds vs #11 Seeds / #7 Seeds vs #10 Seeds / #8 Seeds vs #9 Seeds / Most Common March Madness First-Round Upsets FAQ

#1 Seeds vs #16 Seeds

You know the story. A #16 seed had not beaten a #1 seed in the 34-year history of the tournament until 2018, when the #16 UMBC Retrievers stunned #1 Virginia.

Would we have to wait another 34 years before another #16 seeds can do the previously unthinkable? Nope. During the first round of the 2025 tournament, the Farleigh Dickinson University (FDU) Knights came out of nowhere to upset #1 Purdue 63-58.

#2 Seeds vs #15 Seeds

Richmond was the first #15 to upset a #2 all the way back in 1991 when the Spiders shocked Syracuse.

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From 2001-2011, the #2 seeds went undefeated, but six #15s have won games since 2012, including Florida Gulf Coast (aka Dunk City) in 2013, Oral Roberts in 2021, and St. Peter’s in 2022.

#3 Seeds vs #14 Seeds

Once you get to the #3 vs #14 matchups, upsets start to be pretty frequent. That said, #3 seeds are 22-2 over the last five years.

Oakland was the last #14 to advance, beating the #3 Kentucky Wildcats in 2024.

#4 Seeds vs #13 Seeds

The #13 seeds haven’t made many deep runs in the tournament, but they have won at least one game in 12 of the last 17 tournaments, including two in 2021: Ohio over Virginia (62-58) and North Texas over Purdue (78-69).

#5 Seeds vs #12 Seeds

The #12s get a lot of pub for pulling more upsets than they should, and they are batting 35% in the first round. They’re an impressive 4-4 in the last two NCAA tournaments (2023 and 2024).

James Madison and Yale were the most recent #12 seeds that defeated #5 seeds during the 2024 March Madness tournament.

#6 Seeds vs #11 Seeds

The #11 seeds should be getting more attention after their sterling 12-8 performance over the last five years. They are now firmly ahead of the #12s when it comes to upsets after trailing for many years.

The last time an #11 seed didn’t advance was all the way back in 2004. Three #11’s advanced in both 2023 and 2024.

In 2018, Loyola-Chicago’s historic run to the Final Four started on the #11 line.

#7 Seeds vs #10 Seeds

The #7 vs #10 matchup should be relatively even and #10 seeds actually have an even record (6-6) with #6 seeds over the past two years.

#8 Seeds vs #9 Seeds

The Selection Committee has long said that there is no difference between the #8 and #9 seeds. The eight teams right in the middle of their rankings are all grouped into one big pot and treated the same.

You would expect that to lead to an even W/L record and it pretty much has, but #9 seeds are slightly more successful with a 12-8 record over #8 seeds in the last five years.

Year-by-Year First-Round Upset Counts

Let’s take a look at the amount of first-round upsets that have occurred over the last 10 years:

March Madness First-Round Upsets FAQ

Do you have more questions about the most common March Madness first-round upsets? Let’s see if we can help.