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  • Patrick Reed won the 2018 Masters; what were his odds at the start of the tournament?
  • Track the odds movement of all the top players at the tournament
  • Looking for the most recent Masters odds?

The Masters is the most prestigious tournament in golf, which you know because they’ll write it on everything. 2018’s edition, starting May 5th, was one of the most hotly anticipated golf tournaments of the last decade, as Tiger Woods made a plausible return, Phil Mickelson was on form, and some of the young talents were ready to challenge the old legends.

Here’s a look back at how the odds changed throughout the tournament for all the top players, along with the results.

2018 Masters Results

Patrick Reed, who entered the tournament as a +6000 longshot, dominated the tournament. Go here for the full leaderboard. 

Position Player Score
1 Patrick Reed -15
2 Rickie Fowler -14
3 Jordan Spieth -13
4 Jon Rahm -11
T5 Rory McIlroy -9
T5 Cameron Smith -9
T5 Henrik Stenson -9
T5 Bubba Watson -9

2018 Masters Odds

We’ll track the top players, and how their odds evolve through the week.

Almost everyone got a little longer overnight, which I expect is the sports books trying to entice bettors to pick somebody, anybody, except Tiger Woods. A lot of these sites are going to sustain heavy losses if the Big Cat wins this week, so they might start offering good odds on great players.

Opening 2018 Masters Odds

Here’s the current odds on the Top 25

Player Odds to win the Masters
Jordan Spieth +1000
Rory McIlroy +1000
Justin Thomas +1200
Dustin Johnson +1200
Tiger Woods +1400
Justin Rose +1400
Bubba Watson +1800
Jason Day +1800
Phil Mickelson +2000
Rickie Fowler +2200
Jon Rahm +2500
Paul Casey +2500
Sergio Garcia +3300
Hideki Matsuyama +3300
Henrik Stenson +4000
Alex Noren +5000
Tommy Fleetwood +5000
Matt Kuchar +5000
Patrick Reed +6000
Adam Scott +6000
Ian Poulter +6600
Louis Oosthuizen +6600
Marc Leishman +6600
Thomas Pieters +8000
Bryson DeChambeau +8000


Masters Betting Tips

Augusta favours lefties

You can see this two ways. Looking at the course map, you’ll see a lot of high, right-to-left tee shots that are a lot easier for a left-handed player. You’ll see that the 12th green is built for a left hander to go at the pin with a little fade on Sunday, and is fiendishly tricky for a right-handed player.

You can also see this in the results. Bubba Watson has two green jackets, Phil Mickelson has three. Hell, even Mike Weir has one. That’s six wins in the seventeen tournaments since the start of this millenium, shared between a group that makes up 10% of the population and just 7% of the field.

You bet on who will be the low lefty, at these odds:

Player Odds to be Top Left Handed Player
Bubba Watson +110
Phil Mickelson +115
Brian Harman +500
Ted Potter Jr. +2500
Mike Weir +6600
Yuxin Lin +10000

It’s all about approach

You’ll hear a lot of talk about how important putting is at Augusta, and that’s partially true. When you look at the list of winners, however, you’ll see a bunch of guys that aren’t exactly aces with the flat stick. Bubba Watson isn’t a great putter. Phil has had his problems. Sergio won in a year he finished with negative shots gained putting.

What winners do have in common is that they’re accurate with irons and wedges, and leave themselves makeable putts. Getting out of position on the severe greens at Augusta is a death sentence, so the guys who win are the guys who are able to put themselves in the right spots. Mickelson is an all-time great with the irons. Spieth led the tour last year in approach to the green. Tiger’s biggest strength was always his distance control with the irons.

Here’s some of the top players in shots gained on approach, and their odds to win.

Player SG:A Rank Odds to win
Sergio Garcia 1 +3300
Phil Mickelson 4 +2000
Justin Thomas 5 +1200
Rafa Cabrera-Bello 7 +12500
Paul Casey 8 +2500
Jordan Spieth 9 +1000

Shots gained vs implied probability

I wanted to make a quick ratio that compares a golfer’s shots gained (basically a value stat for golfers) to their implied probability of winning, so that I could quickly find golfers who are maybe underrated. Here’s five players that give a lot of value, for their odds.

Player Shots Gained Odds SG/IP Rank
Webb Simpson 1.499 +25000 1
Chez Reavie 0.961 +30000 2
Brendan Steele 1.274 +20000 3
Brian Harman 1.576 +10000 9
Alex Noren 1.892 +5000 22

Alex Noren leaps off the page, because he’s not exactly a no-name guy and but his odds haven’t quite caught up to his play. Brain Harman makes a lot of sense, as a lefty and a hometown favorite, but I love Noren at +5000.