The 2018 Masters Odds Tracker
- Patrick Reed won the 2018 Masters; what were his odds at the start of the tournament?
- Track the odds movement of all the top players at the tournament
- Looking for the most recent Masters odds?
The Masters is the most prestigious tournament in golf, which you know because they’ll write it on everything. 2018’s edition, starting May 5th, was one of the most hotly anticipated golf tournaments of the last decade, as Tiger Woods made a plausible return, Phil Mickelson was on form, and some of the young talents were ready to challenge the old legends.
Here’s a look back at how the odds changed throughout the tournament for all the top players, along with the results.
2018 Masters Results
Patrick Reed, who entered the tournament as a +6000 longshot, dominated the tournament. Go here for the full leaderboard.
| Position | Player | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Patrick Reed | -15 |
| 2 | Rickie Fowler | -14 |
| 3 | Jordan Spieth | -13 |
| 4 | Jon Rahm | -11 |
| T5 | Rory McIlroy | -9 |
| T5 | Cameron Smith | -9 |
| T5 | Henrik Stenson | -9 |
| T5 | Bubba Watson | -9 |
2018 Masters Odds
We’ll track the top players, and how their odds evolve through the week.
Almost everyone got a little longer overnight, which I expect is the sports books trying to entice bettors to pick somebody, anybody, except Tiger Woods. A lot of these sites are going to sustain heavy losses if the Big Cat wins this week, so they might start offering good odds on great players.
Opening 2018 Masters Odds
Here’s the current odds on the Top 25
| Player | Odds to win the Masters |
|---|---|
| Jordan Spieth | +1000 |
| Rory McIlroy | +1000 |
| Justin Thomas | +1200 |
| Dustin Johnson | +1200 |
| Tiger Woods | +1400 |
| Justin Rose | +1400 |
| Bubba Watson | +1800 |
| Jason Day | +1800 |
| Phil Mickelson | +2000 |
| Rickie Fowler | +2200 |
| Jon Rahm | +2500 |
| Paul Casey | +2500 |
| Sergio Garcia | +3300 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +3300 |
| Henrik Stenson | +4000 |
| Alex Noren | +5000 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +5000 |
| Matt Kuchar | +5000 |
| Patrick Reed | +6000 |
| Adam Scott | +6000 |
| Ian Poulter | +6600 |
| Louis Oosthuizen | +6600 |
| Marc Leishman | +6600 |
| Thomas Pieters | +8000 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | +8000 |
Masters Betting Tips
Augusta favours lefties
You can see this two ways. Looking at the course map, you’ll see a lot of high, right-to-left tee shots that are a lot easier for a left-handed player. You’ll see that the 12th green is built for a left hander to go at the pin with a little fade on Sunday, and is fiendishly tricky for a right-handed player.
You can also see this in the results. Bubba Watson has two green jackets, Phil Mickelson has three. Hell, even Mike Weir has one. That’s six wins in the seventeen tournaments since the start of this millenium, shared between a group that makes up 10% of the population and just 7% of the field.
You bet on who will be the low lefty, at these odds:
| Player | Odds to be Top Left Handed Player |
|---|---|
| Bubba Watson | +110 |
| Phil Mickelson | +115 |
| Brian Harman | +500 |
| Ted Potter Jr. | +2500 |
| Mike Weir | +6600 |
| Yuxin Lin | +10000 |
It’s all about approach
You’ll hear a lot of talk about how important putting is at Augusta, and that’s partially true. When you look at the list of winners, however, you’ll see a bunch of guys that aren’t exactly aces with the flat stick. Bubba Watson isn’t a great putter. Phil has had his problems. Sergio won in a year he finished with negative shots gained putting.
What winners do have in common is that they’re accurate with irons and wedges, and leave themselves makeable putts. Getting out of position on the severe greens at Augusta is a death sentence, so the guys who win are the guys who are able to put themselves in the right spots. Mickelson is an all-time great with the irons. Spieth led the tour last year in approach to the green. Tiger’s biggest strength was always his distance control with the irons.
Here’s some of the top players in shots gained on approach, and their odds to win.
| Player | SG:A Rank | Odds to win |
|---|---|---|
| Sergio Garcia | 1 | +3300 |
| Phil Mickelson | 4 | +2000 |
| Justin Thomas | 5 | +1200 |
| Rafa Cabrera-Bello | 7 | +12500 |
| Paul Casey | 8 | +2500 |
| Jordan Spieth | 9 | +1000 |
Shots gained vs implied probability
I wanted to make a quick ratio that compares a golfer’s shots gained (basically a value stat for golfers) to their implied probability of winning, so that I could quickly find golfers who are maybe underrated. Here’s five players that give a lot of value, for their odds.
| Player | Shots Gained | Odds | SG/IP Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Webb Simpson | 1.499 | +25000 | 1 |
| Chez Reavie | 0.961 | +30000 | 2 |
| Brendan Steele | 1.274 | +20000 | 3 |
| Brian Harman | 1.576 | +10000 | 9 |
| Alex Noren | 1.892 | +5000 | 22 |
Alex Noren leaps off the page, because he’s not exactly a no-name guy and but his odds haven’t quite caught up to his play. Brain Harman makes a lot of sense, as a lefty and a hometown favorite, but I love Noren at +5000.
