5 Betting Trends for the Kentucky Derby
The 149th running of the Kentucky Derby is going down in May. Twenty of the world’s finest racing horses are ready to break the starting gates at Churchill Downs on Saturday, May 6, 2023 in Louisville, Kentucky. These stallions will run one and a quarter mile in the first of three Triple Crown races this year, and there’s plenty of prep races we can look at to get a better sense of each horse’s current form.
Tradition and lineage are an important part of horse racing culture, and that’s a great resource for anyone betting on the sport of kings. Wagering is a foundation of horse racing, and the long history of this sport gives us a rich set of betting trends to work with.
These trends aren’t any guarantee, but they might steer you in the right direction if you’re unsure about which horse to pick. If nothing else, these captivating trends will leave you with a greater appreciation for horse racing.
Cross the wire with these five betting trends you need to know for the 2023 Kentucky Derby.
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1) Bay and Chestnut Horses Have Been Dominant
In 146 Kentucky Derbies, 70 percent of the winning horses have been one of two colors: bay and chestnut.
In total, there are seven colors of thoroughbred recognized by The Jockey Club:
- Bay
- Chestnut
- Dark Bay/Brown
- Gray/Roan
- Black
- White
- Palomino
There have been 55 bay and 48 chestnut winners in the history of the Kentucky Derby. Dark bay/brown horses have the third most wins at 17, so it would take at least 31 years for any other color of horse to catch the leaders.
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Research is key when you’re picking a colt or gelding to bet on for the Kentucky Derby at a horse racing betting site. We’ll talk more about prep races, jockeys, trainers, and betting favorites in this guide, but you can’t ignore the fact that two out of the seven thoroughbred colors have dominated the Derby.
2) Most Horses Have Won a Prep Race Leading Up
Here’s another trend with a 70 percent success rate for you: since 1980, 29 of 40 horses won a prep race leading up to the Kentucky Derby.
There are six major prep races heading into the 2023 Kentucky Derby that can affect a horse’s odds of winning the Derby:
| Prep Race | Date | Winning Horse |
|---|---|---|
| Florida Derby | April 1, 2023 | Forte |
| Blue Grass | April 8, 2023 | Tapit Trice |
| Santa Anita Derby | April 8, 2023 | Practical Move |
| Wood Memorial | April 8, 2023 | Lord Miles |
| Arkansas Derby | April 1, 2023 | Angel of Empire |
| Lexington | April 15, 2023 | First Mission |
On another interesting note, since 1980, 22 of 31 jockeys have commanded the same horse in the final prep race before the Kentucky Derby.
Horses aren’t the only important factor in winning a race. In the 2009 Kentucky Derby, jockey Calvin Borel was largely credited for one of the biggest upsets in horse racing history. Borel used a rail-riding technique with 50-1 underdog Mine That Bird, catapulting to the front of the pack in the Kentucky Derby’s final stretch on route to an easy win of over six lengths.
With that in mind, let’s look at notable jockey betting trends for the 2023 Kentucky Derby and see what kind of impact they have on a race.
3) Four Jockeys in the 2023 Field Have Won Before
Heading into this year’s race, only four jockeys participating have won the Kentucky Derby before:
- John Velazquez (2011, 2017, 2020)
- Joel Rosario (2013)
- Flavien Prat (2019)
- Florent Geroux (2021)
So, what can we take from this trend? At the surface level, it might seem like jockeys don’t matter all that much if there are new contenders all the time.
But, when you consider Velazquez’s dominance, it’s clear some jockeys are worth betting on. Keep an eye out for Geroux (Jace’s Road) and Prat (Angel of Empire) in this year’s Kentucky Derby.
Of course, the trainer also plays a pivotal role in developing a winning horse.
4) Trainer Bob Baffert Has Moved His Horses
Renowned trainer Bob Baffert went for a record-setting seventh Kentucky Derby win in 2021 and nearly won too. That was before controversy struck when his horse Medina Spirit tested positive to betamethasone and was disqualified. Baffert was also banned from Churchill Downs shortly after as a result of the scandal.
Now that Baffert will be unable to participate in the Kentucky Derby for a period of time, some of his top horses have gone to other trainers and should be watched carefully. Trainer Tim Yakteen received three of Baffert’s horses (Messier, Doppelganger, McLaren Vale) while trainer Rodolphe Brisset got Blackadder. It will be interesting to see how these horses perform under the guidance of new trainers that aren’t Baffert.
5) Betting Favorites Are 50/50 Recently
Long odds with big payouts can be tempting in the world of horse racing, but they also come with a lot of risk. On the flip side, betting favorites can seem like safe bets that will bring you guaranteed profit, which in reality isn’t true at all.
Take a look at these results from 2009 to 2020, along with the odds going into the race:
| KY Derby Winner | Year | Odds History | Betting Favorite? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Authentic | 2020 | 8-1 | No |
| Country House | 2019 | 65-1 | No |
| Justify | 2018 | 3-1 | Yes |
| Always Dreaming | 2017 | 4-1 | Yes |
| Nyquist | 2016 | 3-1 | Yes |
| American Pharoah | 2015 | 2-1 | Yes |
| California Chrome | 2014 | 5-2 | Yes |
| Orb | 2013 | 5-1 | Yes |
| I’ll Have Another | 2012 | 15-1 | No |
| Animal Kingdom | 2011 | 21-1 | No |
| Super Saver | 2010 | 8-1 | No |
| Mine That Bird | 2009 | 50-1 | No |
In 12 Kentucky Derbies from 2009 to 2020, only six winning horses were the betting favorite going into the race. That should debunk any misconceptions you have about the betting favorite being automatic money.
As for huge underdogs like Mine That Bird and Country House, don’t let their presence in the table above fool you. These were monumental upsets, and Country House won by a controversial decision that disqualified Maximum Security, who crossed the finish line first at the 2019 Kentucky Derby. Utilizing an offer like the ESPN BET promo code can help mitigate some of the risk, regardless of how favorited your horse might be.
The results from the past 12 years show that horses between 3-1 and 8-1 odds are the most common Kentucky Derby winners. Keep this in mind heading into this year’s Derby.
Get Ahead of the Pack with Inside Knowledge
There’s still some time until the 2023 Kentucky Derby, which means you still have time to get caught up on all the knowledge you need to bet with confidence. For further reading on this topic, check out our tips for Kentucky Derby betting .
If you’re new to horse racing and still have a few questions we’ve got you covered! We’ll teach you how to read a racing program along with explaining horse racing jargon. Feeling overwhelmed? read this horse betting 101 guide to get the lay of the land and understand the basics. There’s a ton of considerations unique to horse racing that you’ll have to factor in, and you’ve got to do your homework if you’re hoping to boost your bankroll betting on the ponies.
And remember, check back here as we update these trends leading up to the big race!
A sports fanatic and strategic wordsmith, Mitchell has been writing gaming content for over seven years. As sports betting emerges in markets across the globe, he’s ready to journey alongside those who haven’t wagered before with informative articles and comprehensive how-to guides.
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