2015 Gold Cup Betting – USA vs. Cuba

USA (-1200) vs Cuba (+850), Draw (+2500)

Cuba surprised the soccer world by qualifying for the knockout stage of the 2015 Gold Cup, despite featuring a lineup of backups and amateurs. But their storybook run looks set to come to an abrupt halt tomorrow as the tiny nation takes on tournament favorites and host nation USA (5:00 PM Eastern at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore).

In reality, betting on this game isn’t about picking the winner. That’s essentially been decided. Instead, the focus of most wagers will be on how many goals the American squad can score and if they can cover the handicap. Currently, you can get Team USA (-2) at -166 or (-3) at +140.

Jürgen Klinsmann’s team won two of their three games in the group stage, beating Honduras (2-1) and Haiti (1-0), to go along with a draw against Panama (1-1). The two wins were enough to take top spot in Group A, but more was expected from the squad after its impressive European trip prior to the tournament (where they knocked off both the Netherlands and Germany). In particular, the team needs someone to step up on offense to help striker Clint Dempsey.

For Klinsmann, the tough games in the Group Stage aren’t necessarily a bad thing.

“I think it can only benefit you if you’ve had real games already in the group phase. Two years ago, we had Belize and Cuba, and things looked very easy. Going into this tournament, we needed to be on our toes from the first second, and we were. There’s no real preparation for the Gold Cup, so it’s difficult to be in a flow, it’s difficult to be playing in a way that you’re going to see a lot of automatic things, in the way of passing flow and fine tuning elements”, Klinsmann explained in his pre-game press conference.

Cuba, meanwhile, went 1-0-2 in the Group Stage, allowing eight goals in losses to Mexico (6-0) and Trinidad & Tobago (2-0). But they surprised Guatemala (1-0), which allowed them to earn a spot in the quarterfinals as one of the top-two third-place teams.

In the trends, Team USA has won the last eight games in the series against Cuba. In the last two, they have outscored Cubs 10-1. Even though they haven’t been playing up to par yet, Team USA -3 looks like the best value.

Pick: Team USA -3.

(Photo credit: Jarrett Campbell from Cary, North Carolina, USA (Flickr) [CC BY 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons. Photo has been cropped.)